France 1995: what if Delors vs Balladur in the 2nd round ?

[big bad fab]

Let's imagine Jacques Delors is a tougher guy... and decides to run in 1995 presidential elections.
He wins big against Henri Emmanuelli in PS primaries.

During the 1st round campaign, with very good polls for Delors in the 2nd round, right voters become aware of the need to have an electable candidate in the 2nd round.

So, Edouard Balladur is ahead of Jacques Chirac and the 2nd round gathers Delors and Balladur.

Who wins ?

[big bad fab]

Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?

Both if you want, it's always better to try to analyze beyond our own wish.

I think I can guess your wish.

But the "prediction" is hard in this case.
In reality, Balladur wasn't very good against Chirac. But Chirac was just ahead of Balladur (and election night was quite suspenseful).
In my scenario, Delors would have been a formidable candidate on paper. But during long months of camapigning, I'm not so sure... And the left was still in bad shape.
So, it's not an easy question....

[big bad fab]

You both may be right.

Would that mean that Delors would have been in 3rd position behind Balladur and Chirac in the 1st round ?!?

Remember, this hypothesis was seriously taken into account (even in the PS) after Delors (precisely) said NO to a candidacy in December 1994.

I also think Delors would have been a poor campaigner.

[big bad fab]

As for me, I think Balladur would have won, even greater than Chirac against Jospin, maybe 53-47.

Because:
- Delors would have been an even worse campaigner than Balladur, Delors is too clever for French medias and he hasn't a "fighting spirit"
- many socialists would have supported him in the same way they supported Royal (not the same ones, of course !)
- Delors would have been too moderate for the far left, which was already on the rise at the time (remember Hue led a harsh nand populist campaign: he wasn't a "quiet" communist; and Laguiller did well in the 1st round)
- the right had a structural strength at the time
- Le Pen's voters, anti-European fundies, would have jumped into the Balladur-Pasqua bandwagon just to beat "Delors l'Européen"
- In a 2nd round debate, Balladur would have been better than Delors (this one is just a "feeling", not an analysis).

BUT what you wrote has convinced me that, in fact, had Delors been candidate, Chirac would have done better than in the reality and Balladur (too moderate for right-winger and from whom centrist and moderate voters may well have decided to try Delors) would have beaten from his left and from his right.
And Chirac may have gathered even more leftists than in the reality, because of Delors located too much close to the center.

So my scenario would not have taken into effect, even with Delors being courageous...