France 1995: what if Delors vs Balladur in the 2nd round ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?

Both if you want, it's always better to try to analyze beyond our own wish.

I think I can guess your wish.

But the "prediction" is hard in this case.
In reality, Balladur wasn't very good against Chirac. But Chirac was just ahead of Balladur (and election night was quite suspenseful).
In my scenario, Delors would have been a formidable candidate on paper. But during long months of camapigning, I'm not so sure... And the left was still in bad shape.
So, it's not an easy question....

Delors was one of the best socialists at this time, and having him for president would be fantastic.

However ( maybe I will surprise you ), I think nobody from the left could win in 1995. Remember the PS collapse in 1993 : many considered it as the end of a PS as a government party. Even a great campaigner and a well-considered personality as Jacques Delors campaigning against a guy like Balladur could not have changed this reality. In fact, it needed an extraordinary work of the PS in the 1995-1997 time to permit it to win again legislatives. Plus, I agree with Hashemite ( you naturally have the right to think that it's only because it goes in my sense, as you want ) : a Delors candidacy would have demobilized more leftist voters, especially in a campaign dominated by "fracture sociale".

[Antonio the Sixth]

You both may be right.

Would that mean that Delors would have been in 3rd position behind Balladur and Chirac in the 1st round ?!?

Remember, this hypothesis was seriously taken into account (even in the PS) after Delors (precisely) said NO to a candidacy in December 1994.

I also think Delors would have been a poor campaigner.

If you are talking about Delors running in the 1st round with everything remaining normal, I tend to think that it would happen as in real life : Balladur's campaing is pathetic, Chirac manages to create a momentum around the "mangez des pommes !" slogan, and Delors benefits on their division being finally ahead of 1st round. Something like this :
- Delors : 25%
- Chirac : 22%
- Balladur : 16%
- Le Pen : 14%
- Hue : 11%
- Laguiller : 6%
- Villiers : 4%
- Voynet : 2%
- Cheminade : 0%

Delors would have been a good candidate for the PS, despite the fact that his pro-market might turn of the lefties in the PS and that he would have been a poor campaigner. Probably better than Jospin even.

Managing to get 47,5% of the vote in 1995 was still an unbelievable succes for PS.