http://www.thewmurchannel.com/politics/3782107/detail.htmlOverall Result
Bush 50
Kerry 45
Pre-Debate:
Bush 51
Kerry 43
Post Debate
Bush 48
Kerry 46
Poll dome Sept 27-Oct 3rd
Little known New Hamphire fact...
If you look
very carefully on the licence plates in New Hamphire, in
very small print right under "Live Free or Die" it says...
"and always, always, always, lie to the pollsters...'Edit - The poll was a total of 579 interviews.
Assuming that it was 290 befor and 290 after, the 6% change in the Bush lead before and after has:
About a 70% chance of being a real shift
About a 30% chance of being random noise.
Good news for Kerry in that he (likely) made up some ground
Good news for Bush in that he is (modestly) ahead.
MANCHESTER, N.H. -- President George W. Bush has taken the lead over Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in New Hampshire, according to a poll released Monday.
The WMUR Granite State Poll shows Bush leading Kerry, 50 percent to 45 percent. The president had been closing the gap through the summer, as Kerry held a 5-point lead over Bush in a poll conducted in July.
One percent of the 579 New Hampshire adults surveyed for the poll said they favored another candidate, including Ralph Nader. The poll has a 4.1 percent margin of error.
"The Bush campaign has been very effective in focusing the campaign on John Kerry's weaknesses, especially during their August convention," said Andrew Smith, Director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center, which conducted the poll. "The Bush campaign has succeeded in driving Kerry's unfavorable ratings up and this has led to a decline in voter support for Kerry."
Kerry peaked with New Hampshire voters in February, following the primary. He held a 14-point lead over the president at the time and has lost ground since.
Smith said that Kerry's position may be improving. The survey was conducted between Sept. 27 and Oct. 3. Before the Sept. 30 debate, Bush held a 51 percent to 43 percent lead over Kerry. After the debate, Bush's lead was only 48 percent to 46 percent.
Those surveyed said that they believe Bush exhibits more leadership qualities than Kerry. When asked which candidate is a strong leader, 55 percent named Bush, while 34 percent named Kerry. Similarly, 47 percent said that Bush is the more trustworthy candidate compared to 37 percent who named Kerry.
One area that Kerry is viewed more favorably than Bush is recklessness, with 47 percent calling Bush the more reckless candidate, while only 30 percent named Kerry.
New Hampshire is one of several battleground states across the country that could tip the election either way. In 2000, Bush defeated Al Gore by less than 2 percent. Although the state only has four electoral votes, had Gore won the state, he would have won the election, regardless of the result in Florida.
