Comprehensive Pennsylvania Results by Precinct, 1992-2008

[TeePee4Prez]

I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis. 

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.    Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.

I do think Hillary Clinton would have won the 26th by about 5-10 and sailed to much higher margins in the Northeast.  Interestingly, it is still a Democratic Ward on paper and union membership amongst whites is pretty strong there.  Bob Brady even won handily a lot of precincts McCain won.  I looked at some of the more whiter (not always Italians, yeah I know some Irish live there too ya know) divisions and none of them were a McCain blowout either.  IIRC, the best one was in the low 60s.  I think McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase where he got in the mid 60s.

[TeePee4Prez]

Yeah, I acknowledged it's still Dem "on paper" and there are tons of union members. Brady winning handily in McCain precincts means nothing. We ran a complete joke candidate (as we always do). He was a black Republican, too, by the way.

I totally believe that McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase.

McCain's best was Ward 39 Division 14 in South Philly: 71.89%-24.56%.

McCain won 87 precincts and tied in 2, compared to Bush 46 and 1 in 2004.

13 Wards swung to the Republicans this time (1, 24, 25, 26, 39, 45, 56, 57, 58, 63, 64, 65, and 66), the largest of which was an 11.37% swing (Ward 26 - the only one McCain won). The biggest swing to Obama was Ward 35 (19.62%) (Crescentville area)

Here's my Excel spreadsheet with Philadelphia data by division and ward for both 2004 and 2008, as well as swing by ward:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/r83a3j

Note: There was data missing from 3 precincts in Ward 5 from 2004.

I'll likely upload the spreadsheet for the entire state tomorrow (2008 only).

EDIT: It looks like the colors don't show up right if you open it on a mac... but all the data is there.

I never thought to look at the 39th for McCain's best precinct.  I looked at the Committee of 70 website and thought it would be in either the 26th or 63rd.  Guess I was wrong.

My explanations for both swings are simple.  26th- whites aren't leaving, black on top of ticket, figure out the rest.  35th- heavy white flight since both 2000 and 2004.  IIRC, the 35th voted for Ronald Reagan pretty heavily I might add.