Comprehensive Pennsylvania Results by Precinct, 1992-2008

[Keystone Phil]

I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis. 

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.    Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, I couldn't resist - I downloaded it...only to later realize that the results are a jumbled mess. 

[Keystone Phil]

I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis. 

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.    Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.

I do think Hillary Clinton would have won the 26th by about 5-10 and sailed to much higher margins in the Northeast.  Interestingly, it is still a Democratic Ward on paper and union membership amongst whites is pretty strong there.  Bob Brady even won handily a lot of precincts McCain won.  I looked at some of the more whiter (not always Italians, yeah I know some Irish live there too ya know) divisions and none of them were a McCain blowout either.  IIRC, the best one was in the low 60s.  I think McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase where he got in the mid 60s.

Yeah, I acknowledged it's still Dem "on paper" and there are tons of union members. Brady winning handily in McCain precincts means nothing. We ran a complete joke candidate (as we always do). He was a black Republican, too, by the way.

I totally believe that McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase.

[Keystone Phil]

I didn't expect McCain's best division to come from the 39th but it makes sense - a lot of old Italians there, too (and many conservative Irish Dems in some areas).

My maternal Grandparents live in the 39th. I remember my Grandmother telling me that she has never seen so much visible support for a Presidential candidate (and a Republican at that) in her life down there. This is especially surprising for a Republican because while this is still a socially conservative leaning area, the Dem machine controls everything.

Go figure that the 14th was his best division. For those that now the area, this is the stadium area/Packer Park. My Grandparents are right by there in the 31st division.

[Keystone Phil]

Ok, I couldn't resist - I downloaded it...only to later realize that the results are a jumbled mess. 

How so? There are definitely some errors, but the files are certainly usable.

I think it's my computer or I didn't open it in the right program. The document came up really messed up. Everything was all crammed together.

[Keystone Phil]

Go figure that the 14th was his best division. For those that now the area, this is the stadium area/Packer Park. My Grandparents are right by there in the 31st division.

I messed up on this a bit.

The 14th includes the stadiums but isn't the area I had in mind otherwise. The Packer Park area borders the 14th and I have little to no doubt that those areas were for McCain as well (and are probably pretty Republican or very close overall).

The 14th being McCain's strongest division makes even more sense now - it's not heavily populated (we have some divisions - and I'm sure this is one of them - with not even 100 registered voters). In fact, most of the populated area in this precinct is the Navy Yard. How appropriate, eh?