Will North Korea one day open a war?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

So, do you think it could happen one day, or that will always remain some provocations?

They probably know that if they did, that would be their end, so I voted 3.

[dead0man]

They won't do it without serious help (covert or overt) from the PRC.  If the tubby midget does go off on his own it will suck for the Korean peninsula, at least in the short term.  In the long term it will...hopefully, if the PRC lets them, will become a much better place.

But even if Our Dear Midget does go off half cocked it's very likely a good chunk of his military are going to start carving up bed sheets and looking for sticks to wave them with.  Hopefully his nukes suck or we shoot them down or they fall into the sea....I'm sure the guys in charge of that are loyal to the regime.

Odds of a war involving N.Korea in the next decade=<5%
Odds of a war involving N.Korea but NOT the PRC in the next decade=<2%

[minionofmidas]

They have no interest in war.

[Coburn In 2012]

Yes even today they said as much -- if we stop their ships its war.

Unfortunately with a sissy for a President who "talks" to terrorsts and mass murderers, we will end up surrendering before there's even a fight.  Obama is Captain Appeasement!

[??????????]

>5% chance.

[Marokai Backbeat]

They have no interest in war.

[Frodo]

If North Korea was really the buffer client state that China wishes us to think it is, then obviously no way in hell would the Chinese allow it.  Given its recent behavior however (which obviously proves the lie to that fantasy), I am inclined to think that a shooting war is far more likely than anyone here would care to think.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Even if they wanted to go to war, odds are the PRC wouldn't let them.  North Korea stands no chance, of winning, whether the PRC got involved or not.

I'll say <2% odds.

[12th Doctor]

No.  There is no reason for the North Korean leadership to go to war.  They have nothing to gain.  The entire North Korean is insane, and stupid, but they aren't enough of either of those two to make me think they would ever pursuit a course that would lead to their total destruction.

North Korea would be capable for doing alot of damage to U.S. forces, South Korea, and possibly Japan, before the messy affair ended, though.  That's why I love listening to these retards who say, "Why don't we bomb the sh**t out of them?"

And please, enough with the Chinese bogyman.  The Chinese economy, and thus Chinese society, is dependent on the rapid economic growth brought about through their association with us.  If that line were cut, either though an all out war, or any disruption of Pacific trade, their entire society would collapse in a matter of months.

[minionofmidas]

China props up North Korea because they see that loon playing with nukes as preferable to a civil war or a South Korean/US takeover (never mind a civil war and eventual South Korean/US takeover, which they might consider the most likely outcome though I disagree with that. I expect North Korea to one day crumble as quickly and relatively unfussily as the GDR did.) right on their borders. While that's obviously not a very democratic way of thinking (well, duh. It's China) one can I think see where they're coming from.

North Korea is collecting nukes to ensure against a US attack. They're paranoid. That means the chance of them attacking anybody is nil, but all attempts to get them to give up their nukes are doomed. After all, Kim saw what happened to Saddam Hussein, who got taken out as soon as the US were quite sure he couldn't do any damage (I'm not certain that's the truth, though I'm pretty sure there's some truth to it. But I am quite certain that's the lesson a man like Kim would have learned from Saddam's fall.)
And it occasionally fires nukes as a means of extortion. They want money, or free grain, or free petrol. The ploy worked under Bush, after all, so why not try again?
There's not much the US can do. Either repeat the 2006 charade, pay up in exchange for a makebelieve "return" to "negotiations" that end as soon as North Korea would be required to actually take steps towards nuclear disarmament.
Or just ignore him. Which is *probably* the best strategy, but is, sadly, more than a little risky. As there's not much Kim might do in that case, but one of his few options might conceivably be to sell a nuke to Al Qaeda or some other outfit we really don't want to see armed.