Which Republican Senators will vote for Sotomayor?

[Verily]

Hutchison is definitely in a tough spot. A yes vote hurts her in the primary, while a no vote hurts her in the general.

Ensign and McCain have similar political calculations.

Not too bad. The best move for her is to vote no on cloture but yes on the confirmation. She can tell the conservative Republican primary electorate that she tried to stop the nomination at the only juncture where it could be stopped, and she can tell the Hispanic GE electorate that she voted for Sotomayor.

[Verily]

The only Democrats I can see voting against confirmation are Nelson and Landreiu, and even they'll probably vote against a filibuster.

I think they'll both vote to confirm.  Nelson is extremely safe, and Landrieu has 6 years before she needs to run again.  There's no point in voting no.

Nelson has already done everything short of saying he will vote no. He's going to vote no. Landrieu has been silent, but she will probably vote yes. (She can justify it on gender rather than racial grounds if she wants/needs to.)

[Verily]

Graham...wow

Why? Graham has always been very supportive of the Hispanic community, despite there being no Hispanics in South Carolina (and lots of hostility). My guess is that his secret male lover is a Mexican illegal immigrant.