Will Moldova hit Transnistria any time soon?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I don't understand why they don't. Russia poses no direct threat to them and Ukraine is no longer pro-Russia so they don't either. Furthermore of all irredentist seccesonist states, Transnistria has the weakest justification, common sense dictates that certain nationalities won't stop being part of the population instantly at a border, not to mention it has more Moldovans than Russians anyway, and there are many Russians in Moldova proper. Not only is Transnistria an ugly geographic mess and unsustainable without Russian aid, it's also probably even more repressive than Belarus, and doesn't attempt to make its joke elections even look semi-legitimate. It's an ugly sore on Europe that needs to go.

[ag]

Who is supposed to be doing the hitting? The mighty Moldovan Army?

The easiest way for the "sore" to go would be for Moldova to join the EU. Then, once most Transnistrians go and obtain Moldovan passports they might, actually, want to rejoin.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The worst thing about Transnistria is that I read it's the only "country" in Europe where homosexuality is still illegal.

Though that might change in Kosovo pretty soon sadly.

[GMantis]

Who is supposed to be doing the hitting? The mighty Moldovan Army?

The easiest way for the "sore" to go would be for Moldova to join the EU. Then, once most Transnistrians go and obtain Moldovan passports they might, actually, want to rejoin.

Moldova joining the EU is much less likely than Turkey joining the EU. Apart from it being the poorest country in Europe, the EU is not going to accept a country with a major territorial dispute.

[freek]

 the EU is not going to accept a country with a major territorial dispute.

A country like Cyprus, you mean?

[GMantis]

 the EU is not going to accept a country with a major territorial dispute.

A country like Cyprus, you mean?

Cyprus has strong backing from Greece and is much better economically. Moldova has bad relations with Romania, its most likely sponsor. And the EU is very hesitant about continued expansion.

[minionofmidas]

Cyprus is only in due to blackmail [/simplified, but not much].

What do you mean by "hit", anyways? "Hit me baby one more time"?

[GMantis]

Cyprus is only in due to blackmail [/simplified, but not much].

How was it blackmail?

[minionofmidas]

Cyprus is only in due to blackmail [/simplified, but not much].

How was it blackmail?

At numerous times during the many years of preparation of the Big Eastward Expansion, Greece (usually subtly) threatened that they'd veto any major eypansion that didn't also include (South) Cyprus.

What makes things more complex is, of course, that South Cyprus had to make some pretty serious efforts at reunification as part of the price of getting in. Though timing and smallprint made it so that in the end they had the choice between getting in together with the North or without it, with sadly predictable outcome (whatever you think of the Annan plan's merits)

[GMantis]

Cyprus is only in due to blackmail [/simplified, but not much].

How was it blackmail?

At numerous times during the many years of preparation of the Big Eastward Expansion, Greece (usually subtly) threatened that they'd veto any major eypansion that didn't also include (South) Cyprus.

What makes things more complex is, of course, that South Cyprus had to make some pretty serious efforts at reunification as part of the price of getting in. Though timing and smallprint made it so that in the end they had the choice between getting in together with the North or without it, with sadly predictable outcome (whatever you think of the Annan plan's merits)

This proves my point about the low probability of Moldova entering the EU: Romania simply hasn't the same leverage as no mass expansion is likely in the short term. And this presumes that Romania would wish to use its leverage, which looks doubtful at the moment.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Cyprus is only in due to blackmail [/simplified, but not much].

How was it blackmail?

At numerous times during the many years of preparation of the Big Eastward Expansion, Greece (usually subtly) threatened that they'd veto any major eypansion that didn't also include (South) Cyprus.

What makes things more complex is, of course, that South Cyprus had to make some pretty serious efforts at reunification as part of the price of getting in. Though timing and smallprint made it so that in the end they had the choice between getting in together with the North or without it, with sadly predictable outcome (whatever you think of the Annan plan's merits)

You are right, that IS oversimplification.

First, Cyprus has one of the healthiest economies in Europe. So that made the EU willing to (partly) turn a blind eye to the territorial disputes with Turkey.

Secondly, I wish we had so much leverage as to blackmail France, Germany and the UK for anything, let alone EU expansion. Actually, if we had that much power perhaps we'd have persuaded by now the Europeans to be more forceful towards Turkey about the EU customs union.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Why Moldova doesn't hit?

Hmm, maybe you should get some infos about that small country named... Georgia, especially its recent history...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Why Moldova doesn't hit?

Hmm, maybe you should get some infos about that small country named... Georgia, especially its recent history...

Moldova doesn't have a border with Russia unlike Georgia.

[Hash]

Why Moldova doesn't hit?

Hmm, maybe you should get some infos about that small country named... Georgia, especially its recent history...

Moldova doesn't have a border with Russia unlike Georgia.

Transnistria is a joke Russian puppet with a sizable Russian contingent stationed there.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

Why Moldova doesn't hit?

Hmm, maybe you should get some infos about that small country named... Georgia, especially its recent history...

Moldova doesn't have a border with Russia unlike Georgia.

Transnistria is a joke Russian puppet with a sizable Russian contingent stationed there.

Yes, touching Transnistria would be like touching the former provinces of Georgia. They already have a sizable contingent, plus you surely heard about...planes.

[dead0man]

Why the rest of the world lets Russia keep troops there is the better question.

[GMantis]

Why the rest of the world lets Russia keep troops there is the better question.

Their official role as peacekeepers is not denied. The dispute is on the heavy equipment stockpiled.
Of course, as last year's events demonstrated not having Russian troops would be rather harmful for Transnistria.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not having Russian troops wouldn't be harmful to anyone but that dictatorship, it would mean that illegitimate state would fall. As for the rest of the world "allowing" them there, no one can do anything about them except for Moldova and Ukraine, Ukraine won't attack Russian troops for obvious reason and Moldova is the issue here.

Considering that Moldovan reunion with Romania did not happen, any initial justification for Transnistria is now even more moot.

[GMantis]

Not having Russian troops wouldn't be harmful to anyone but that dictatorship, it would mean that illegitimate state would fall. As for the rest of the world "allowing" them there, no one can do anything about them except for Moldova and Ukraine, Ukraine won't attack Russian troops for obvious reason and Moldova is the issue here.

Yes, Moldova is the issue, as they destroyed the best plan to end the division:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kozak_memorandum

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

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That sounds even more ridiculous than the Cyprus unification plan.

[GMantis]

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That sounds even more ridiculous than the Cyprus unification plan.

That applied only to laws which would be joint competences between the different units in the federation, ordinary laws could be passed through the lower house with a two third majority.

[Jacobtm]

Russia poses no direct threat

I take it that Moldova, seeing how Russia recently liberated South Ossetia and Abkhazia, thinks differently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

*sigh*

Once again, please look at a map. Unlike Georgia, Russia does not border Moldova.

[dead0man]

Are you saying Russia would be cool with Moldova removing Russian military by force?

[minionofmidas]

This proves my point about the low probability of Moldova entering the EU.

Oh, absolutely. I was agreeing with you.

Secondly, I wish we had so much leverage as to blackmail France, Germany and the UK for anything, let alone EU expansion.

EU expansion requires unanimity, and the big expansion was very important to the people who call the shots (whether it was wise at that point - before EU constitutional reform - is a different matter entirely). I think (correct me if I'm wrong) that Cyprus had been an official candidate for membership much longer than the countries of Eastern Europe, too (of course, that's nominally true of Turkey as well).