O Império Eterno

[k-onmmunist]

Is there any real liberal party now? A rough outline of parties beliefs would be nice

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Is there any real liberal party now? A rough outline of parties beliefs would be nice

Well, Brazil has always had a lax attitude towards parties, ideology and that, and personality and $ matters more than ideology. But here's a rundown:

Conservatives/UDC: anti-Vargas is their main shtick, outside of that they're rabidly anti-communist, claims to be neoliberal (mostly meaning they're open to foreign investment), and against the labour reforms passed by Vargas.
PTB: pro-Vargas, supports corporatist union structure, left-wing nationalist, moderately anti-communist, extremely statist.
PCB: The party closely follows the Moscow line. It remains pro-Stalin, anti-Vargas and all that.
AIB: as described earlier, traditionalist Catholic, nationalist, rabidly anti-Vargas and anti-communist. Borderline fascist.
Radical: lost its cause with the advent of Vargas in 1930. Remains in favour of civil liberties, centrist economic policies, and major government reform. Would like to remove the Catholic Church as the state church.
PSB: anti-Vargas, supports independent grassroots non-corporatist union structure, left-wing nationalist. Close to the Conservatives by virtue of shared anti-Getulismo.

All parties except the PCB and parts of the PSB support the monarchy, the Conservatives more strongly so than the others.

[k-onmmunist]

Thanks Hashemite This is fast becoming my favourite alternate history TL of all time.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Now, let me make one thing clear. If this won't feature awesome pple like Janio, Itamar and, of course, THE GOD FROM ALAGOAS, I'll kill you.

[k-onmmunist]

Bump! I love this TL.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Update this, you lazy piece of hash.

[Hash]

Update this, you lazy piece of hash.

If you update your other international timelines, I might.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Update this, you lazy piece of hash.

If you update your other international timelines, I might.

I don't have ones, lol.

[Hash]

Update this, you lazy piece of hash.

If you update your other international timelines, I might.

I don't have ones, lol.

Yes, you do.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Update this, you lazy piece of hash.

If you update your other international timelines, I might.

I don't have ones, lol.

Yes, you do.

No I don't. Nobody gives a s**t so I deleted them.

You actually have people interested in around, so be glad.

[k-onmmunist]

Please update this

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Premiers:

Zacarias de Góis e Vasconcelos: 1866-1870
José Maria da Silva Paranhos, Visconde do Rio Branco: 1870-1875
Luís Alves de Lima e Silva, Duque de Caxias: 1875-1878
José Antônio Saraiva: 1878-1884
Franklin Américo de Meneses Dória: 1884-1885
João Lustosa da Cunha Paranaguá, Marquês de Paranaguá: 1885
João Maurício Wanderley, Barão de Cotejipe: 1885-1887
João Alfredo Correia de Oliveira: 1887-1888
Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, Visconde de Ouro Preto: 1888-1893
Lafayette Rodrigues Pereira: 1893-1897
Rodrigo Augusto da Silva: 1897-1901
Eduardo Ernesto da Gama Cerqueira: 1901
Francisco de Paula Rodrigues Alves: 1901-1906
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1906-1909
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1909-1912
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1912-1913
Altino Arantes Marques: 1913-1915
Hermes Rodrigues da Fonseca: 1915-1920
José Joaquim Seabra: 1920
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1920-1923
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1923-1930
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1930-1945
Eduardo Gomes, Barão de Petrópolis: 1945-1948
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas, Marquês de São Borja: 1948-


Governors of Minas Gerais:

Francisco Silviano de Almeida Brandão: 1896-1901
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1901-1906
João Pinheiro da Silva: 1906-1908
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1908-1909
Júlio Bueno Brandão: 1909-1914
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1914-1920
Raul Soares de Moura: 1920-1924
Fernando de Melo Viana: 1924-1932
Olegário Dias Maciel: 1932-1933
Benedito Valadares Ribeiro: 1933-1945
Milton Campos: 1944-1947
Juscelino Kubitschek: 1947-

Governors of SP:

Pedro Vicente de Azevedo: 1896-1902
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1902-1912
Altino Arantes Marques: 1912-1913
Manuel Joaquim de Albuquerque Lins: 1913-1917
Altino Arantes Marques: 1917-1920
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1920-1923
Carlos de Campos: 1923-1924
Antônio da Silva Prado: 1924-1926
Carlos de Campos: 1924-1927
Júlio Prestes de Albuquerque: 1927-1930
Armando de Sales Oliveira: 1930-1938
Ademar de Barros: 1938-1947
Adhemar de Barros: 1947-

Governors of Rio de Janeiro:

José Bento de Araújo: 1896-1902
Quintino Antônio Ferreira de Sousa Bocaiúva: 1902-1908
Francisco Chaves de Oliveira Botelho: 1908-1911
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1911-1920
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1920-1926
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1926-1930
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1932-1935
Protógenes Guimarães: 1935-1938
Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto: 1938-

Governors of Rio Grande do Sul:

Gaspar da Silveira Martins: 1896-1901
Justo de Azambuja Rangel: 1901-1902
Carlos Barbosa Gonçalves: 1902-1908
Antônio Augusto Borges de Medeiros: 1908-1926
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1926-1930
José Antônio Flores da Cunha: 1930-1938
Osvaldo Cordeiro de Farias: 1938-1943
Ernesto Dorneles: 1943-

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Nationalist Tide: 1948-1950

Vargas returned to his old office in early July 1948, but this time his government had the official backing of only a minority of the Chamber and faced a strong Conservative opposition caucus. This meant that Vargas would be reliant on the Communists' 22 seats for a majority. Though Vargas maintained amicable links with certain prominent Conservatives, notably Pernambucan Conservatives such as João Cleofas, the nationalist policy which the government intended to lead meant that being friendly with the growing PCB was more important than old friendships with Conservatives. Furthermore, the PTB's leadership wished to involve the PCB in the government and break the party's image as a 'separate independent party' and use the opportunity to weaken the PCB.

Vargas' cabinet, while moderate, was also made acceptable, somewhat, to the PCB. Horácio Lafer, a moderate, became Finance Minister. General Mascarenhas de Morais, a popular hero of World War II, became War Minister and was acceptable to most of the military. João Neves da Fontoura became Justice Minister while Vargas' old right-hand man, Osvaldo Aranha, was made Foreign Minister.

Vargas moved to undo most of Eduardo Gomes' liberal economic reforms. In the fall of 1948, the Parliament passed a tariff reform which increased tariffs on foreign good which were not widely used by consumers. As much as Gomes' government had welcome foreign investment, Vargas' government passed new laws limiting profit remittances and limited full foreign control of major companies in telecommunications and infrastructure (such as public transportation, streetcars notably).

Although Vargas appealed to Brazilian nationalism in the working-class and the military, he maintained an eclectic and slightly hypocritical foreign policy which still kept Brazil within the United State's circle. Vargas knew that an alliance with Moscow would be a disastrous idea politically and economically, and the beginnings of the Cold War by 1949 prevented any kind of independent foreign policy. The United States remained the power broker of the Americas and no country in the region could alienate the United States. Of course, Washington also needed Rio de Janeiro's support in its new anti-communist policy and also benefited from Brazilian exports of natural resources and oil. In addition, Vargas' government understood that his industrial development policies and economic modernization required US private and public investment. Aranha's position as Foreign Minister ensured that Rio would remain within the American circle.

The Democratic administration, and since 1948, Congress, in Washington was also favourable to Brazilian interests and keen on exploring the funneling of American public investment into Brazil. In late 1948, both governments agreed to the creation of a joint American-Brazilian commission which was to prepare a report on economic conditions in Brazil and the country's economic future.

Inflation was slowly creeping up, but was still as appropriate levels in 1948 (it even declined slightly between 1947 and 1949). With no apparent social and economic ills, there was a climate of restrained euphoria in Brazil in 1949 and 1950. Public confidence in the government remained high, the military was quietly satisfied with its position and the paternal figure of the old Prime Minister worked. While the Conservatives were struggling to find a voice, Vargas was riding high and was hailed as a great modernizer. His much publicized trip to Washington DC in 1949, during which he meet President Harry Truman, increased his image abroad and his more authoritarian leanings pre-1945 were forgotten. The Emperor named Vargas Marquis of São Borja, and also conferred titles of nobility on other prominent politicians on both sides of the aisle (former Prime Minister Eduardo Gomes was made Baron of Petrópolis, Aranha became Viscount of Alegrete). In July 1950, Brazil hosted the FIFA World Cup, and a mood of euphoria swept the country as it toped its group, trounced Sweden and Spain in the final rounds and advanced to the finals against Uruguay at the Estádio do Maracanã on July 16. Despite a tough Uruguayan attack, Brazil won its first World Cup title with a 2-0 win over Uruguay, on the backs of goals by Friaça and Ademir. Wild, euphoric celebrations erupted throughout Brazil

The 1950 provincial elections were delayed until after the World Cup, partly to shift focus in June from politics to football and later as a goon by the government to benefit from the likely victory of the Brazilian team. The ploy worked and the PTB swept to a landslide win in the provincial elections. Juscelino Kubitschek, the young and popular governor of Minas Gerais was re-elected easily, while Hugo Borghi unseated São Paulo Governor Adhemar de Barros, a thorn in Vargas' side. Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto and Vargas' cousin, Ernesto Dorneles, were easily re-elected in their home provinces. As much as the Conservatives and Communists wanted to overthrow the government before the World Cup, the provincial elections stopped them from doing so.

With euphoria from July 16 wearing off a bit, but still present, the government decided to keep nationalist moods high (likely to cover a rise in the cost of living in 1950) and push through a issue key to nationalists: oil. Brazilian oil, discovered in 1939, was being controlled and explored by foreign corporations, a fact which angered nationalists in the civilian and military strata of society. Gomes' cabinet had ordered a report on oil in 1946 which basically stated that nationalization or state control of oil exploration was unfeasible because of Brazil's lack of funds, expertise and appropriate economic conditions. The report had angered nationalist sentiments in Brazil and had played a major part in the Conservative Party's defeat in the 1947 and 1948 elections. The PTB, in 1948, had promised, vaguely, to 'reform' the oil industry while only the PCB supported nationalization of the oil industry.

Vargas' new political strategy in 1950 was aimed at weakening the PCB, which was still gaining strength in the unions and poor working-class neighborhoods. The Conservatives, the PTB's leadership argued, were easier to defeat than the PCB because the Conservative Party badly lacked real men of talent and its base in the elite and middle-class was too weak in a country which remained predominantly poor and rural. The nationalization of the oil industry was one of the best methods of striking at the PCB's base.

In August 1950, the government proposed to Parliament a bill which proposed the creation of Petrobras, a public company which would be controlled in majority by the state but which still allowed foreign investment and foreign control of old refineries. The PCB and some Conservatives opposed the bill, which lacked a state monopoly dear to the Communists. A long debate between the PTB and PCB could hurt the government and give credibility to the Communists and even the Conservatives. There was only one solution in Vargas' eyes, forcing a snap election on the issue.

On September 5, 1950; Vargas went to the Emperor to ask for a dissolution of Parliament, arguing that the government's nationalist oil legislation had been hijacked by the agents of foreign profiteers and speculators. Would Vargas' ploy work? 

[k-onmmunist]

YAY ITS BACK!!!

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O petróleo é nosso!: 1950-1952

The Conservatives and Communists had been preempted by Vargas in their political games. The Conservatives and Communists had hoped to derail Vargas' nationalist games in Parliament and take credit for any oil reform for themselves. Vargas, who despite his 68 years of age, was still as politically cunning as ever, took the initiative from them and decided to fight the 1950 election on the issue of oil. He made it extremely clear that if his government was re-elected, he would, at all costs, push through nationalization of the oil industry and limit foreign control of Brazilian oil. Against such a popular message, the Conservatives found themselves in a tough situation. A wing of the party supported oil nationalization as well, though the party's dominant wing was predominantly liberal and opposed the state monopoly. The Conservatives criticized Vargas' plan under a sober economic angle, arguing, as Gomes' government had done in 1946, that Brazil lacked the funds and expertise to take control of its oil for itself. Nationalization and Petrobras, the Conservatives argued, would lead the country to economic ruin and would kill the petroleum industry. Furthermore, they warned, picking fights with the United States - most foreign corporations were either Canadian or American - would be disastrous for Brazil's standing on the world stage. As much as the Conservative attacks had merit and factual backing, it was not fit for the times and could not compete with Vargas' charismatic populist rhetoric. Touring Brazil, targeting poor and working-class towns in particular, Vargas and the PTB leadership led violent attacks on the Conservatives, calling them the agents of foreign speculators and profiteers and questioning the patriotism of the party's small classical liberal wing - which was violently opposed to nationalization. The Communists, on the other hand, found little room in the polarized debate to argue that Vargas was himself an profiteer and nothing more than an imperialist lackey.

Vargas' trick worked. The PTB won a one-seat majority in the Chamber and increased its Senate majority by three additional seats. While the Conservatives held their ground well, all small parties except the PSB lost ground. The Communists lost seven seats in the Chamber and held only four district seats; the Integralists lost half their caucus and the Radicals won their worst result since 1939. Only the PSB, growing stronger in Bahia and especially Recife under the leadership Pelópidas da Silveira, won more votes and seats in 1950 than in 1948.

Chamber of Deputies

Brazilian Labour Party 43.6% winning 127 seats (+13)
73 DS, 54 PLS
Conservative Party 38.1% winning 99 seats (-3)
52 DS, 47 PLS
Brazilian Communist Party 9.3% winning 15 seats (-7)
4 DS, 11 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 3.5% winning 4 seats (-4)
0 DS, 4 PLS
Radical Alliance 2.4% winning 2 seats (-1)
0 DS, 2 PLS
Brazilian Socialist Party 2.1% winning 3 seats (+2)
1 DS, 2 PLS
Others 1.0% winning 0 seats (nc)
0 DS, 0 PLS

Senate
 
Brazilian Labour Party 34 seats (+3)
Conservative Party 25 (-2)
Brazilian Communist Party 1 (-1)



Vargas now had a majority and did not need, for the moment, to play along with the Communists or the Conservatives. Except for the replacement of Mascarenhas de Morais by nationalist General Newton Estillac Leal in the War Ministry, the new cabinet did not change much, though it would change more dramatically later.

Freshly re-elected, the government re-introduced tougher Petrobras legislation which now included full state monopoly. In the Chamber, the legislation passed rather easily with quasi-unanimous PTB support (the PTB's more conservative wing, the old Liberals, were enticed into voting in favour by promises of pork for their constituencies), as well as support from Communists, Socialists, Integralists and even a dozen or so Conservatives. Overall, 155 deputies voted in favour, which gave the legislation three-fifths backing. In the Senate, the legislation faced a tougher time, despite the PTB's large majority, because the PTB's old Liberal wing was especially strong in a house where old rural elitist interests were still important. The Conservatives allied with the conservative PTB Senators to force a re-draft of the bill to protect foreign control of existing oil refineries and private participation in the distribution of oil, and the amended version was passed easily in the Senate, even though radical nationalist PTB Senators voted against. Back in the Chamber, the Senate's 'conservative' amendments which would have allowed some private control and limited the state's oversight of Petrobras were struck down and finally a version which kept the state monopoly but included the Senate's key amendments concerning refineries and distribution was passed. The legislation received Imperial Assent in January 1951.

The new euphoria surrounding the victory of the nationalist current in the oil debate hid the true economic situation which Brazil was in. Inflation was still slowly rising, and, worryingly, wages were not rising fast enough to keep up with inflation. The Brazilian's currency favourable exchange rate vis-a-vis the US dollar hurt exports but did help production for the internal market. Rising inflation between 1950 and 1953 meant that Vargas' government would be left in an uneasy situation where it would need to pass unpopular measures to limit inflation while at the same time attempting to keep the union movement and the PTB's working-class base under their control.

Keeping the union movement under control was becoming harder. Eduardo Gomes' government had passed legislation in 1947 which liberalized unions and reduced the Labour Ministry's oversight of unions. Furthermore, as Gomes had sought to use the PCB as a check on the PTB's rising influence, it had quietly allowed and even encouraged communists to gain footholds in the unions. While the union movement was quiet in 1951 and 1952, activity sprung up in 1953 as inflation reached nearly 20% that year.

In terms of foreign policy, the Korean War's beginnings in the summer of 1950 and American-led UN intervention in support of South Korea was the first major foreign policy crisis which the government faced. Unlike in 1943, there was little military backing for intervention in Korea and Osvaldo Aranha sought to maneuver through dangerous waters by trying to disassociate military aid to the US-led intervention in Korea to American aid to Brazil as part of the joint commission's report. Aranha found himself resigned to pledge Brazilian material and economic aid to the American efforts in Korea, a move which angered nationalists but which was able to keep the military's growing pro-American anti-communist hardline led by Generals Cordeiro de Farias, Etchegoyen and Nelson de Melo.

Despite the tough negotiations with Washington over Brazil's attitude vis-a-vis the Korean War, relations between both countries were still bright. In June 1952, the joint commission's report into the Brazilian economy was released and the Truman administration showed interest in funneling public money into Brazil's deficient energy and transportation sector.

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Downhill: 1953

Things went downhill in late 1952. It started with Dwight D. Eisenhower's election as President in the United States in 1952, ushering in a new Republican-led administration. The Republicans were far more skeptic towards the utility of funneling public funding to Brazil's economy and were even more stringently anti-communist than the Democrats were. Eisenhower's inauguration in January 1953 put American investments in doubt. Part of the reason why the Americans were now skeptic towards investing in Brazil was the country's rising inflation problem. Inflation reached 20% in 1953 and wages could not keep up with the rising rate of inflation. Social problems brewed and the liberalized unions escaped from the PTB's grasp as they mounted unforeseen strikes in February-March 1953, months away from the 1953 provincial and general elections. Joined by non-unionized workers, light manufacturing employees went on strike in São Paulo in the spring of 1953. Strikes erupted in Rio, Recife, Salvador and Belem throughout the spring of 1953 as well. They were demanding better working conditions and especially an increase in the minimum wage.

The strikes showed the beginnings of crack in Vargas' PTB system, with old union bosses and their PTB allies losing their power slowly.

In May 1953, Vargas shuffled his cabinet and indicated a new line, right before the elections. Danton Coehlo, the PTB Labour Minister, was fired. He had failed Vargas during the strikes and the government needed a minister who was popular with the unions and could re-build the PTB's dwindling union base. He called on another native of São Borja, João 'Jango' Goulart, a young PTB stalwart who had worked in the PTB's 1948 and 1950 campaigns and was a prominent leader of the PTB's new left-wing in the Chamber. At the same time, to deal with inflation, Osvaldo Aranha, the trusted friend, was promoted to the Finance Ministry. Francisco Negrão de Lima replaced Aranha in the Foreign Ministry, while João Neves da Fontoura was dumped from the government and replaced by Tancredo Neves as Justice Minister.

Vargas did not go to the Emperor in May 1953 to dissolve Parliament in order to have new elections coincide with provincial elections. Vargas feared that the government might suffer in the June provincials but would have time to recover before general elections tentatively scheduled for October 1953. In the provincial elections, the Conservatives performed well but their hopes at gaining São Paulo fell flat when the PCB did extremely well in the state and the Conservatives were resigned to support Lucas Nogueira Garcez, an Independent close to former Governor Adhemar de Barros. However, the Conservative-endorsed candidate for mayor of São Paulo, a little-known man by the name of Jânio Quadros running on an anti-corruption platform, won. In Minas Gerais, Kubitschek managed to win a third-term on his own record but the PTB suffered badly in Rio Grande do Sul, where Vargas' home-turf PTB machine led by his cousin Ernesto had to contend with a strong Conservative-backed opposition led by Ildo Meneghetti and Walter Só Jobim. Ernesto Dorneles ended up by holding on, as did Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto, in power since 15 years. Amaral Peixoto narrowly defeated Macedo Soares, a Conservative-backed independent. In the city of Recife, a PSB-Radical-PCB coalition was formed with Pelópidas da Silveira (PSB) as mayor. The conquest of Recife, a Communist stronghold, gave the small PSB a big boost ahead of October.

The focus then shifted to the big general elections to be held in early October. Vargas campaigned on his popular personality but also promised to increase the minimum wage, keep the country stable and continue fighting against the fabled foreign profiteers and speculators. He invoked the success of the new Petrobras and idealized the PTB's fight against the 'foreign agents' who were determined to 'prevent Brazilian control of Brazilian resources'. The Conservatives attacked rising inflation, wasteful spending, and worsening US-Brazil relations. The Conservatives, now led by Juarez Távora, a former 1920s revolutionary, distanced themselves from the neoliberals in the party. The Conservatives still struggled to win in district seats because they lacked a strong party base and machine in many provinces. Indeed, their campaign was hurt when the new popular mayor of São Paulo, Jânio Quadros, refused to campaign for them. The PCB and the PSB, the PTB's rivals to its left, hoped to benefit from lingering working-class discontent with rising prices and still-low wages. The Radical Alliance had finally merged with the PSB to create the Popular Front, or Frente Popular (on 1950 results, the new alliance represented 4.5% of the electorate and held 5 seats in the Chamber).

Chamber of Deputies

Brazilian Labour Party 40.5% winning 112 seats (-15)
62 DS, 50 PLS
Conservative Party 39.5% winning 106 seats (+7)
58 DS, 48 PLS
Brazilian Communist Party 10.5% winning 18 seats (+3)
6 DS, 12 PLS
Popular Front — Radical-Socialist Alliance 5.1% winning 10 seats (+5)¹
4 DS, 6 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 3.3% winning 4 seats (nc)
0 DS, 4 PLS
Others 1.1% winning 0 seats (nc)
0 DS, 0 PLS

Senate
 
Brazilian Labour Party 30 seats (-4)
Conservative Party 28 seats (+3)
Brazilian Communist Party 2 seats (+1)




¹ Compared to the sum of the 1950 results of the Radical Alliance (2 seats) and the Brazilian Socialist Party (3 seats)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Finally, Janio appeared.

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Crisis Point: 1953-1955

Vargas' prestige was slowly slipping away. While the PTB maintained a minority and could count on a majority through the support of the PCB and FP, the government was weakened and the spring 1953 strikes in São Paulo had seriously shaken the PTB's leadership and the union bosses close to Vargas. If the PTB lost the support of urban workers in a climate of rising insecurity and inflation, its status as the dominant party of imperial politics would be weakened considerably. Yet, the Conservatives failed to benefit from the obvious weakening of the PTB and still struggled from leadership problems of its own. Its old stock of 1920-style tenentes in the mold of former Prime Minister Eduardo Gomes and incumbent leader Juarez Távora lacked charisma or any type of appeal to the rising middle-classes. It was desperately on the lookout for a new kind of leader which could generate the enthusiasm if not euphoria that Vargas personally could still create.

Vargas' new cabinet, named before the October elections, sought to solidify the PTB's urban base while at the same time reducing inflation. In January 1954, Osvaldo Aranha, Minister of Finances and Deputy Prime Minister, presented to the Chamber of Deputies his Plano Aranha to combat inflation, which was estimated at 20% in 1953. The plan would attempt to limit credit, control the exchange rate and cut public spending. Aranha hoped to limit Parliament's liberal attitude towards patronage and pork-barrel spending, as well as trim on unnecessary government expenditures. Yet, at the same time, Vargas was being pulled by the trade unions and the Labour Ministry, led by his presumed dauphin João Goulart. The unions, representing the PTB's urban working-class base, were opposed to spending cuts which would endanger generous government handouts to unionized workers and potentially endanger the welfare system dear to them. Furthermore, the unions, who had found a key ally in Goulart, kept pushing for a hike in the minimum wage, at least to cover the rise in inflation. Aranha knew that any major increase in the minimum wage or generous handouts to unions would kill his program and alerted Parliament of it.

Parliament approved the key points of Aranha's plan in February 1954, notably the exchange controls and attempts to limit credit. They were reluctant to cut back on their old pork-barrel spending traditions and only halfheartedly backed the spending cuts. Despite all this, MPs and Senators continued their old ways and kept on spending. They weren't stopped by the Central Bank, which loosened credit and printed out money. Aranha was growingly frustrated by the slow progress of his plan by the summer of 1954.

At a Labour Day rally on May 1, Vargas had announced, to the cheers of the crowd, that the minimum wage would be increased by year's end, but he never specified by how much it would be increased. Goulart and the unions wanted an increase of roughly 65%. Vargas was about to settle for approving a 65% hike when a by-election in a key PTB-held working-class district of Rio was held in July 1954. The PCB won 39% to the PTB's 27%, a major defeat for the PTB. If repeated nationally, these results would mean that the PTB would lose by a wide margin. In August 1954, Vargas took the key move of announcing to Parliament a 100% increase in the minimum wage.


Labour Minister João Goulart

The Conservatives were united in their opposition and found themselves supported by a young, radical right-wing editor, Carlos Lacerda, who owned a newspaper in Rio. In long diatribes against the government, Lacerda accused Vargas of being a corrupt authoritarian communist and gave weight to the popular rumour that Vargas sought to create a strategic Brazilian-Argentine alliance with Argentine President Juan Perón. Yet, the minimum wage increase was passed in the Chamber with a bare majority of 127 votes in favour (the PCB and FP voted in favour). In the Senate, the bill, to which were attached various pork-barrel spending projects, passed with 31 votes in favour and many abstentions.

While the unions and Aranha were each pulling Vargas to their side, the military was increasingly wary of the government's left-wing turn with Goulart. Influenced by America's anti-communist crusade and the rumours of a Getulist-Peronist alliance, the military, especially the Navy and Air Force, became radically anti-communist and growingly opposed to the left-nationalism preached by the PTB. Already in February 1954, War Minister Estillac Leal resigned and was named ambassador. He was replaced by General Ciro do Espírito Santo Cardoso, another ally of Vargas within the military. Cardoso was broken by dissidence with the officer corps in the summer of 1954, when Vargas was to announce a hike in the minimum wage. In July 1954, a group of young middle-class colonels signed a manifesto which condemned the increase in the minimum wage (announced in May) and decried the lack of funding for the military. Vargas was angry that Cardoso hadn't managed to alert him of the colonel's dissidence. He was dismissed in August 1954 and replaced by General Zenóbio da Costa. Zenóbio da Costa had the task of restoring order and military discipline within the army, and controlling radical tendencies within the officer corps.

Radicalism continued to mount as the Conservatives fell more and more under the influence of Carlos Lacerda's violent diatribes against Vargas and the PTB was growingly left-wing and nationalist. Rumours of a military coup abounded, but Dom Pedro IV kept his confidence in Vargas' elected government. The Conservatives pleaded to the Emperor for an early dissolution of Parliament or urged the Emperor to use his now rarely utilized poder moderador to remove what they perceived to be a radical government.

Hindered by the increase in the minimum wage, Aranha's anti-inflation plan failed to produce any major results. Inflation in 1954-1955 did not go down by much, and the Central Bank's continuous attempts to loosen credit while Aranha tightened it effectively doomed the plan. Vargas was not supportive of Aranha and was unwilling to spend what remaining political capital he had left in supporting a tough austerity-minded anti-inflation plan, especially one year out from the 1956 elections in which the PTB's situation was increasingly shaky. Vargas and the PTB leadership saw more use in continuing the party's shift to the left and towards unionized workers, with the aim of limiting the PCB-FP's pull in the 1956 elections and stabilizing the PTB's main electorate.

In May 1955, Zenóbio da Costa stepped down from the War Ministry, citing his inability to deal with the pressure the military placed on him. Henrique Teixeira Lott was named War Minister in June 1955.

On October 31, right-wing General Canrobert Pereira da Costa died and was buried in early November 1955. At his burial, Colonel Jurandir Mamede used the opportunity to launch a vocal attack on the government, which he called dangerously communist and said that the government threatened the Brazilian Empire. The War Ministry was incensed. Colonel Mamede's act, while in uniform, was a clear and obvious breach of military discipline and misconduct. Lott moved, with Vargas' support, to dismiss Mamede. In turn, the press, led by Lacerda, seized on the dismissal of Mamede by the government as a breach of the military's independence. The far-right sectors in the Imperial Air Force moved in support of Mamede, who had been turned into a martyr by the far-right. Led by Major Haroldo Veloso a group of radical Air Forces officers in the night of November 12, 1955 flew to an isolate air base in Amazonia, located in the town of Jacareacanga while others set up base in Aragarças (Goiás) and small towns in Minas Gerais.

Meanwhile, Prime Minister Vargas was scheduled to visit a large farm in rural Goiás on November 13. Arriving early, Vargas' cortège was greeted by a large crowd of peasants and small farmers and the old man mingled with the crowds assembled along the roads. Smiling widely as he was shaking the hands of the assembled crowds, a man in a Air Force major's uniform, aged 33 and named Rubens Vaz, stepped out and aimed a gun at Vargas' head before pulling the trigger within seconds. The bullet hit Vargas in the head just as Vargas was shaking hands. The panicked crowds grabbed on to the man and controlled him while frantic bodyguards and military officers moved to check on Vargas.

Getúlio Dornelles Vargas, Marquis of São Borja, was pronounced dead at 11:19 on November 13, 1955.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Why are you never writting about the Emperors?

[redcommander]

Why are you never writting about the Emperors?

Great TL!!! I was also wondering how the Royals are doing. Did Pedro III and Pedro IV marry the same women as in RL? Where do the Royals live in the country?

[Хahar 🤔]

Cliffhanger!

I must say, I very much liked the way this installment was written.

[Hash]

Why are you never writting about the Emperors?

Basically for the same reason that histories of contemporary Sweden, Netherlands or Norway don't spend lengths on the monarch since they're largely irrelevant in the constitutional framework of things. Unless the reigning family is insane or crazy, like the Windsors or the people in Belgium.

Why are you never writting about the Emperors?

Great TL!!! I was also wondering how the Royals are doing. Did Pedro III and Pedro IV marry the same women as in RL? Where do the Royals live in the country?

I covered Dom Pedro III's pre-coronation marriage, the same as in real life, except that in this timeline he was not forced 'out' of the 'game' by Isabel. He married Countess Elisabeth Dobržensky de Dobrženicz of Bohemia, they had 5 kids, including reigning Emperor Dom Pedro IV (otl Pedro Gastão). I don't know if he still married Maria de la Esperanza of Bourbon-Two Sicilies, because of butterflies, but since it's irrelevant to the story line, we could assume that he did.

The royals alternate between Petrópolis and Rio, the former being the summer residence of choice.

[Hash]

Resolution: 1955-1956

Upon hearing the news of Vargas' death, the radical dissident air force officers stationed in Jacareacanga and Aragarças moved to occupy ground in the respective regions and in some cases counted on support from the local population. Meanwhile, in the evening of November 13, a car bomb exploded in front of the Prime Minister's residence, the Catete, in Rio. In Minas Gerais, small and isolated pockets of rebellion were encountered by local troops under the command of Governor Kubitschek, and they were rapidly crushed. Rumours of an imminent coup abounded after the car bomb in Rio, but the provincial government, loyal to Vargas, had moved quicker and had started cracking down on radical officers' clubs.

As the country woke up on November 14, still in shock from the previous day, the Emperor called on the main political leaders, military officers and Governors Kubitschek (MG), Garcez (SP) Amaral Peixoto (RJ) and Dornelles (RS) for an extraordinary meeting in Petrópolis in the afternoon of November 14. The whole political class remained shocked at the events, and all parties were united to condemn the assassination:

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At the meeting, the Emperor told participants that the extraordinary circumstances demanded use of the imperial poder moderador and a suspension of civil liberties. Late that evening, the Emperor called on Vargas' War Minister, Marshall Henrique Lott, to form a cabinet in his name.

The next day, Lott's extra-parliamentary cabinet composed in majority of military officers, was confirmed in the Chamber with the PTB, Conservatives, Popular Front and Integralists voting in favour and only the Communists voting against his government. That evening, the Emperor issued a decree which prorogued Parliament, suspended habeas corpus and constitutional guarantees and gave the military full authority over national security in provinces. The Emperor was setting the stage for a crackdown on far-right dissident officers in the rebellious Air Force.

Meanwhile, the backwater revolts in Jacareacanga and Aragarças had spread to the sparsely populated areas surrounding these areas, but as early as November 15, the army and local provincial militias had moved in on the revolts and crushed the remaining rebels, who were arrested.

The tough decree did not stop massive outpouring of grief towards Brazil. Huge rallies lamenting Vargas' death and violently attacking the opposition broke out and, at times, turned violent. Conservative Party headquarters in major states were torched, right-wing newspapers were attacked by protesters as the police struggled to control the massive crowds. Carlos Lacerda fled to Fulgencio Batista's Cuba for safety, fearing for his life if he stayed in Brazil.

Vargas was laid to rest at a small albeit emotional ceremony in São Borja in mid-November. Foreign dignitaries in attendance included President Eisenhower, General Stroessner of Paraguay, President Odría of Peru, President Paz Estenssoro of Bolivia as well as delegates from other South American and European nations. Absent was Argentina's new government, led by right-wing anti-Peronist President Pedro Eugenio Aramburu, who had participated in a fall 1955 coup which overthrew Perón. At the funeral, Goulart and Aranha both gave a moving hommage to Vargas' service to his nation.

Starting on November 15 and lasting up until mid-January 1956, Lott's government had made wide use of the imperial decree granting it unlimited powers and had arrested several radical air force officers. Throughout December 1955, General Odílio Denys, commanding officer in Rio, led the crackdown on isolated pockets of support for the November plotters and suspected far-right members. The assassin, Major Rubens Vaz was condemned to death in a speedy trial in January 1956, and the Emperor decided not to commute the sentence as the Emperor usually did when courts invoked the death sentence, which they rarely did. Far-right organizations, such as the Lantern Club led by Amaral Netto was shut down. The PTB expelled its more conservative members, such as Carlos Luz and João Café Filho who had been vocally critical of Vargas in 1954 and 1955.

In February 1956, as normalcy returned and the crackdowns stopped, the PTB moved to elect a successor to Vargas who would lead the party into the 1956 election, and, if the party won, become Prime Minister following the election, scheduled for October (with provincial elections in June). The two main contenders were Governor Juscelino Kubitschek of Minas Gerais and Governor Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto of Rio, who was also Vargas' son-in-law. Kubitschek, who largely lacked support from the PTB's national caucus and the dominant left-wing factions, ran on a left-wing oriented program stressing economic growth and continuing Vargas' policies. His young and charismatic personality appealed to voters, but he had little base within the party. While Amaral Peixoto also ran on continuing Vargas' policies, he was perceived to be closer to the pro-PTB rural elites and to the party's conservative wing. In the leadership election, where the PTB's office holders at the national, provincial and municipal levels were qualified voters, Amaral Peixoto was the favourite as he had the backing of the PTB factions in Rio and in many small states, though the party's left-wing factions, strong at lower levels and in the big states, were lukewarm towards him. Finally, Kubitschek allied with Goulart, who enjoyed great popularity in union circles and with the PTB's left, and was perceived by many to be Vargas' political heir. Running on a JK-Jango slate which vocally invoked Vargas' legacy, Kubitschek, still the underdog, won narrowly over Peixoto. Kubitschek won roughly 51% at the PTB Congress, against 49% for Amaral Peixoto. Kubitschek immediately announced that Goulart would be his Deputy Prime Minister while Amaral Peixoto would have a senior cabinet position.

The 1956 provincial elections were to be a test for the post-Vargas PTB and the viability of the Kubitschek-Goulart leadership. In Minas Gerais, Kubitschek's lieutenant Clóvis Salgado da Gama (PTB) was easily elected against a divided Conservative Party. In Rio, Amaral Peixoto was replaced by Roberto Silveira (PTB). However, the PTB was against shut out from the top spot in São Paulo, where the Conservatives won a large majority under the leadership of mayor Jânio Quadros. Ernesto Dornelles was re-elected in Rio Grande do Sul, winning a crushing victory, likely on the back of sympathy for Vargas in his home-province.

Encouraged by the PTB's strong showing in the provincial elections and the stabilization of the political situation, the PTB leadership lobbied the Emperor for snap elections in August instead of October. The Emperor cautiously consulted Lott, who agreed that precipitating elections would be best for a return to constitutional guarantees, and thus acquiesced to the PTB's request. The PTB went into the election with a strong, new leadership which invoked the past through Vargas' idolized legacy but also campaigned on a message of hope for a calm and positive future. Kubitschek promised rapid progress, economic growth, social guarantees, political reform and the construction of a new capital. The Conservatives, still led by an ageing and uninspiring Távora were no match to Kubitschek's new message. Jânio Quadros helped matters a bit in São Paulo, but he was reticent to campaign for the party outside his province. The PTB nearly matched Vargas' 1950 showing, but lacked a majority, though the support of the FP and the PCB, which were keener on cooperating with Kubitschek than they were with Vargas, guaranteed the PTB a majority. The Conservatives, desperate, decried a victory for sentimentalism and vague aspirations, but they lacked a leader to inspire people like Vargas and Kubitschek had been able to do.

Chamber of Deputies

Brazilian Labour Party 42.0% winning 121 seats (+9)
69 DS, 52 PLS
Conservative Party 38.7% winning 101 seats (-5)
54 DS, 47 PLS
Brazilian Communist Party 9.6% winning 16 seats (-2)
5 DS, 11 PLS
Popular Front — Radical-Socialist Alliance 4.7% winning 7 seats (-3)
2 DS, 5 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 4.1% winning 5 seats (+1)
0 DS, 5 PLS
Others 0.9% winning 0 seats (nc)
0 DS, 0 PLS

Senate
 
Brazilian Labour Party 34 seats (+4)
Conservative Party 24 seats (-4)
Brazilian Communist Party 2 seats (nc)

[Hash]

Premiers:

Zacarias de Góis e Vasconcelos: 1866-1870
José Maria da Silva Paranhos, Visconde do Rio Branco: 1870-1875
Luís Alves de Lima e Silva, Duque de Caxias: 1875-1878
José Antônio Saraiva: 1878-1884
Franklin Américo de Meneses Dória: 1884-1885
João Lustosa da Cunha Paranaguá, Marquês de Paranaguá: 1885
João Maurício Wanderley, Barão de Cotejipe: 1885-1887
João Alfredo Correia de Oliveira: 1887-1888
Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, Visconde de Ouro Preto: 1888-1893
Lafayette Rodrigues Pereira: 1893-1897
Rodrigo Augusto da Silva: 1897-1901
Eduardo Ernesto da Gama Cerqueira: 1901
Francisco de Paula Rodrigues Alves: 1901-1906
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1906-1909
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1909-1912
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1912-1913
Altino Arantes Marques: 1913-1915
Hermes Rodrigues da Fonseca: 1915-1920
José Joaquim Seabra: 1920
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1920-1923
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1923-1930
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1930-1945
Eduardo Gomes, Barão de Petrópolis: 1945-1948
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas, Marquês de São Borja: 1948-1955
Marshal Henrique Teixeira Lott: 1955-1956
Juscelino Kubitschek de Oliveira: 1956-


Governors of Minas Gerais:

Francisco Silviano de Almeida Brandão: 1896-1901
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1901-1906
João Pinheiro da Silva: 1906-1908
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1908-1909
Júlio Bueno Brandão: 1909-1914
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1914-1920
Raul Soares de Moura: 1920-1924
Fernando de Melo Viana: 1924-1932
Olegário Dias Maciel: 1932-1933
Benedito Valadares Ribeiro: 1933-1945
Milton Campos: 1944-1947
Juscelino Kubitschek de Oliveira: 1947-1956
Clóvis Salgado da Gama: 1956-

Governors of SP:

Pedro Vicente de Azevedo: 1896-1902
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1902-1912
Altino Arantes Marques: 1912-1913
Manuel Joaquim de Albuquerque Lins: 1913-1917
Altino Arantes Marques: 1917-1920
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1920-1923
Carlos de Campos: 1923-1924
Antônio da Silva Prado: 1924-1926
Carlos de Campos: 1924-1927
Júlio Prestes de Albuquerque: 1927-1930
Armando de Sales Oliveira: 1930-1938
Ademar de Barros: 1938-1947
Adhemar de Barros: 1947-1950
Hugo Borghi: 1950-1953
Lucas Nogueira Garcez: 1953-1956
Jânio Quadros: 1956-

Governors of Rio de Janeiro:

José Bento de Araújo: 1896-1902
Quintino Antônio Ferreira de Sousa Bocaiúva: 1902-1908
Francisco Chaves de Oliveira Botelho: 1908-1911
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1911-1920
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1920-1926
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1926-1930
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1932-1935
Protógenes Guimarães: 1935-1938
Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto: 1938-1956
Roberto Silveira: 1956-

Governors of Rio Grande do Sul:

Gaspar da Silveira Martins: 1896-1901
Justo de Azambuja Rangel: 1901-1902
Carlos Barbosa Gonçalves: 1902-1908
Antônio Augusto Borges de Medeiros: 1908-1926
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1926-1930
José Antônio Flores da Cunha: 1930-1938
Osvaldo Cordeiro de Farias: 1938-1943
Ernesto Dorneles: 1943-

[Niemeyerite]

bump!!!!!!