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Author Topic: Orthodox Jewish trend in 2016 election  (Read 970 times)
Torie
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« on: April 09, 2017, 09:10:50 am »
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Has anyone analyzed this? I ask, because it appears that Trump took a massive hit in Orthodox Jewish precincts in Rockland County, with double digit swings against him vis a vis Romney. There also appears to be erosion in the orthodox Jewish precincts in Brooklyn.

The first map shows how the precincts voted, the second map shows the swing. In the middle of a dark red area (that blue spot in the middle that is blue because I clicked on it), when one moves down to the swing map, the zone turns blue in swing even as it voted red. The precinct I clicked swung by about 7.5 points towards Hillary from Obama.  That red zone is a Jewish orthodox area, no?


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« Last Edit: April 09, 2017, 09:24:42 am by Torie »Logged
danny
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2017, 11:48:45 am »
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What you say is true, but there is a much bigger swing on the map in New Square (the dark blue square on the swing map) which had swings of 164%-174% to Clinton.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2017, 12:24:33 pm »
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Clinton had relationships with these communities going back to when she was a Senator that Obama wouldn't have had, and there's no way the Trump "campaign" had any plan to lobby the community leaders.
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cinyc
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2017, 06:17:36 pm »
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Clinton had relationships with these communities going back to when she was a Senator that Obama wouldn't have had, and there's no way the Trump "campaign" had any plan to lobby the community leaders.

Partially this - though I think Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, probably helped with Orthodox outreach, particularly among modern Orthodox communities.

In other words, Torie, you need to pick another state if you want to truly gauge changes in the overall Orthodox vote.  I don't know where Orthodox Jews are concentrated outside of New York, though. Skokie? North Miami Beach?  Anywhere else?
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Beet
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2017, 06:33:05 pm »
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They vote as their Rebbes tell them, and a lot of Rebbes endorsed Clinton. They don't really feel threatened by an outsider woman leader so long as it's not a Jewish woman.
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"Clinton failed, Bush failed, and Obama failed [to start a nuclear war]. I won't fail." - Donald J. Trump
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2017, 06:47:17 pm »
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Atlas red or non-Atlas red? Which part is Rockland County? It makes sense that the Orthodox wouldn't approve of Trump's sexual misconduct.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2017, 07:06:36 pm »
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Atlas red or non-Atlas red? Which part is Rockland County? It makes sense that the Orthodox wouldn't approve of Trump's sexual misconduct.

This is from Realistic Idealist's excellent precinct map on Decision Desk HQ - so non-Atlas red.  Rockland County is pretty much in the center of the map Torie posted, north of the continuous diagonal line.  

The Rockland County Orthodox community there is clustered in various villages of the town of Ramapo there - largely in the rectangular swath of non-Atlas red precincts.  They might have swung to Clinton, but they still appear to have voted largely for Trump.

I looked at Lakewood, Ocean County, NJ, which has a large Orthodox population (though I don't know exactly where in town the Orthodox population is clustered), and didn't see much of a swing pattern.  Some precincts swung toward Trump and others toward Clinton.  Like the county, Lakewood was largely non-Atlas red.  So there may be more of a pro-Clinton swing among New York Orthodox than non-New Yorkers.
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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2017, 10:53:36 pm »
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As someone pointed out on another thread, the village of New Square, Rockland County flipped from something like 90% Romney to 90% Clinton.  The Clintons have a checkered history with New Square.  Bill Clinton just happened to grant clemency to 4 convicted fraudsters from New Square after it block voted for her in the New York Senate race.  That village really block votes in elections. 

Kaiser and Monsey remained heavily pro-Trump, though, with a slight lean toward Clinton.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: April 10, 2017, 07:07:57 am »
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Beverlywood in LA, along with a few blocks on Mansfield and Orange near Beverly Blvd, and a couple of precincts in North Hollywood in Valley Village, are orthodox Jewish enclaves.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #9 on: April 10, 2017, 01:40:26 pm »
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In other words, Torie, you need to pick another state if you want to truly gauge changes in the overall Orthodox vote.  I don't know where Orthodox Jews are concentrated outside of New York, though. Skokie? North Miami Beach?  Anywhere else?

NW Baltimore, Silver Spring, Cleveland Heights
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Ebsy
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« Reply #10 on: April 10, 2017, 02:18:55 pm »
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There's probably a precinct in University City, Missouri, that is largely Orthodox, but I could not tell you which one it might be.
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cinyc
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« Reply #11 on: April 10, 2017, 07:27:41 pm »
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The only one of the non-New York areas where I can find a significant cluster of Trump precincts is in Northwest Baltimore, near (but not including) where Reisterstown Road passes into Baltimore County.  That area had a slight to moderate Clinton trend:



The green dotted line is the Baltimore City/Baltimore County boundary.

Here is a map of the vote and trend in Lakewood, Ocean County, NJ.  I don't see a uniform pattern, with some precincts swinging Trump and others swinging Clinton.  If anyone knows where the main Orthodox communities live within town, let us know:



And Kiryas Joel, Orange County, NY.  It had a slight/moderate Clinton Swing, unlike its gentile neighbors in most of the rest of the town and village of Monroe.:



Given this and the Rockland County, NY map, my guess is that there was a slight Clinton swing among Orthodox Jewish voters.  I see a similar pattern in the areas of Brooklyn with large Orthodox communities, like Williamsburg and Midwood.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2017, 10:09:38 pm by cinyc »Logged
Brittain33
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« Reply #12 on: April 10, 2017, 08:51:33 pm »
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I am googling "Shuls in Lakewood" and "Jewish schools in Lakewood" and am not able to see a pattern relative to these maps.
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cinyc
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« Reply #13 on: April 10, 2017, 10:50:21 pm »
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I am googling "Shuls in Lakewood" and "Jewish schools in Lakewood" and am not able to see a pattern relative to these maps.

Neither am I.  Here's a Google Map of "Lakewood Township, NJ Synagogues":



I think many are in the central light blue zone.  But quite a few are in the two pink precincts near Georgian Court University (NW of Lakewood on the swing map).  And the swing in the light blue and pink precincts wasn't all that high to begin with.
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SunriseAroundTheWorld
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« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2017, 01:40:37 am »
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Clinton had relationships with these communities going back to when she was a Senator that Obama wouldn't have had, and there's no way the Trump "campaign" had any plan to lobby the community leaders.

This.

Also, Beet's comment is tone-deaf, false and ridiculous.
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