Dave's Redistricting App

[Hash]

I've been using this to create UK sized hypothetical constituencies for some seats. Cos...you know I'm bored

Post the maps!

[jimrtex]

10 districts for Mass on 2000 population.   Boston, 3 inner suburban, 3 outer suburban-exurban, Worcester-Springfield, Western Mass-Springfield, and Fall River-New Bedford-Cape Cod-Islands

This is the updated version based on whole towns.  The smallest deviation is to place Milton and Winthrop with Boston.  This shifted Chelsea to the NE, and then the 3 districts north of Boston were rotated counterclockwise, producing more of a coastal Cape Anne district, and interior district that includes both Lawrence and Lowell in the same district, and a district concentrated in the densely population towns immediately north of the Charles.  In the west, I tried to balance the population from the Springfield and Worcester areas, which meant that Chicopee, and all of Hampden County east of the Connecticut river is now in the district.  This resulted in more of an L-shaped district.  Some other small changes were made to better balance population.

Maximum deviation is 0.22%, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.11% or just short of 700.

In a 9-district plan, the Central Massachusetts district between Worcester and Boston disappears.  The western districts should take in Fitchburg and Leominster, and hopefully let the western district include Springfield, while the next district will be mostly Worcester County.

The SE district should take in Taunton, while the next district takes in Quincy.  Other districts may take in Brookline and Newton, which will result in major westward shift in the Norfolk district to take in the southern parts of the Central Mass districts.

Proposed names for districts:

Western Massachusetts
Springfield and Worcester
Central Massachusetts
Lawrence and Lowell
Cape Anne
SE Middlesex
Boston
Norfolk
Brockton, Taunton and Attleboro
Fall River, New Bedford, Cape Cod, and Islands

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Took another stab at Ohio, minus two districts:



OH-01 (light purple, Steve Driehaus - D) - Again, the only logical thing to do with this district is make it metro Cincinnati.
OH-02 (light blue, Jean Schmidt - R) - A Republican shouldn't lose this district; Schmidt should hold on despite the crazy factor.
OH-03 (magenta, Mike Turner - R) - Made this a swing district, with Dayton as the center of population.
OH-04 (yellowish-green, Jim Jordan - R and Pat Tiberi - R) - Safe R, but I drew it to include Jordan and Tiberi. Primary time!
OH-05 (brown, Bob Latta - R) - Fun stretchy shape because I had to have someone take up those counties in the upper middle of the state.
OH-06 (light green, Charlie Wilson - D) - Added the non-Youngstown parts of Mahoning and removed some of the southernmost counties, so it should be a little more Democratic now.
OH-07 (grey, Steve Austria - R) - This one didn't change a whole lot, and is still safe R.
OH-08 (yellow, John Boehner - R) - Another safe R district that didn't change much.
OH-09 (red, Marcy Kaptur - D) - Had to take in some swingy areas to make up for the loss in population, but should still be safe D, as it's still anchored in Toledo.
OH-10 (dark green, Dennis Kucinich - D) - Expands to include part of Lorain, but still safe for the leprechaun.
OH-11 (dark blue, Marcia Fudge - D) - I really don't think there's any way to keep this majority-black. It's a coalition district now.
OH-12 (orange, Zack Space - D) - formerly OH-18, there's not a whole lot I could do to make Space's district safer. I stretched it up to Huron to make it somewhat less Republican.
OH-13 (pink, Betty Sutton - D) - All of Summit and Portage Counties now, should still have been won by Obama by 10 or 11 points.
OH-14 (dark purple, Tim Ryan - D and Steve LaTourette - R) - The fun really starts here. Includes Ryan's base of Youngstown and LaTourette's base of Lake. I'd give Ryan a slight edge in this matchup.
OH-15 (teal, Mary Jo Kilroy - D) - Metro Columbus, an easier district for Kilroy to win.
OH-16 (very light purple, John Boccieri - D) - Another gerrymander to make Boccieri's district more Democratic.

[Padfoot]

Took another stab at Ohio, minus two districts:



OH-06 (light green, Charlie Wilson - D) - Added the non-Youngstown parts of Mahoning and removed some of the southernmost counties, so it should be a little more Democratic now.
OH-12 (orange, Zack Space - D) - formerly OH-18, there's not a whole lot I could do to make Space's district safer. I stretched it up to Huron to make it somewhat less Republican.
OH-16 (very light purple, John Boccieri - D) - Another gerrymander to make Boccieri's district more Democratic.

Wilson's current district already includes Mahoning minus Youngstown.  Also, that OH-12 would probably be the end of Zach Space.  Not that there's much you can do to shore him up, but any major constituent shift like that is going to hurt him a lot unless its all D friendly territory.  I think there's a better way to try to keep Space around but it puts Wilson in a swingy and probably R leaning district.  Here's what I cam up with after going at it again:



Incumbents, Dreihaus (Blue), Schmidt (Green), Kucinich (Pink), Fudge(Yellow-Green), Tiberi (Lilac), Sutton (Peach), Kilroy (Orange), and Boccieri (Bright Green) are all safe.

The Purple district wrapping around Dayton pits Boehner and Jordan against each other in a primary.  I wonder who would win that one? 

The Yellow district has no incumbent and Jordan might be under pressure to move in there.

The Cyan district pits Kaptur against Latta rather than ensuring he won't get stomped by her.  He might opt for the Yellow district regardless of Jordan's decision.

The Dayton based Dark Purple district pits Austria against Turner and is more Dem friendly than Turner's current 3rd district but is probably still R-leaning

The Gray district is empty and Austria might move in here as it should be fairly easy for a Republican to take.

I also sent Ryan into a match with LaTourette and I agree that Ryan has the advantage on paper.

I gave the rest of Mahoning to Boccieri (Bright Green) making him pretty safe.

In the Red district I gave all of Lorain County to Space.  This should be more than enough to counterbalance the smaller R-heavy Ashland and Holmes Counties making this a naturally D-leaning district which Space should have to trouble in.

Wilson (Blue-Green) gets the shaft in my map.  His district is probably still a swing district though and Democrats are currently doing a pretty good job of holding onto economically depressed rural areas despite any slight Republican presidential leanings.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Took another stab at Ohio, minus two districts:



OH-06 (light green, Charlie Wilson - D) - Added the non-Youngstown parts of Mahoning and removed some of the southernmost counties, so it should be a little more Democratic now.
OH-12 (orange, Zack Space - D) - formerly OH-18, there's not a whole lot I could do to make Space's district safer. I stretched it up to Huron to make it somewhat less Republican.
OH-16 (very light purple, John Boccieri - D) - Another gerrymander to make Boccieri's district more Democratic.

Wilson's current district already includes Mahoning minus Youngstown.  Also, that OH-12 would probably be the end of Zach Space.  Not that there's much you can do to shore him up, but any major constituent shift like that is going to hurt him a lot unless its all D friendly territory.  I think there's a better way to try to keep Space around but it puts Wilson in a swingy and probably R leaning district.  Here's what I cam up with after going at it again:



Incumbents, Dreihaus (Blue), Schmidt (Green), Kucinich (Pink), Fudge(Yellow-Green), Tiberi (Lilac), Sutton (Peach), Kilroy (Orange), and Boccieri (Bright Green) are all safe.

The Purple district wrapping around Dayton pits Boehner and Jordan against each other in a primary.  I wonder who would win that one? 

The Yellow district has no incumbent and Jordan might be under pressure to move in there.

The Cyan district pits Kaptur against Latta rather than ensuring he won't get stomped by her.  He might opt for the Yellow district regardless of Jordan's decision.

The Dayton based Dark Purple district pits Austria against Turner and is more Dem friendly than Turner's current 3rd district but is probably still R-leaning

The Gray district is empty and Austria might move in here as it should be fairly easy for a Republican to take.

I also sent Ryan into a match with LaTourette and I agree that Ryan has the advantage on paper.

I gave the rest of Mahoning to Boccieri (Bright Green) making him pretty safe.

In the Red district I gave all of Lorain County to Space.  This should be more than enough to counterbalance the smaller R-heavy Ashland and Holmes Counties making this a naturally D-leaning district which Space should have to trouble in.

Wilson (Blue-Green) gets the shaft in my map.  His district is probably still a swing district though and Democrats are currently doing a pretty good job of holding onto economically depressed rural areas despite any slight Republican presidential leanings.

It certainly looks like one of Space or Wilson is going to be screwed in redistricting. There are just too many Democratic Reps packed into the northeastern quadrant of the state (Wilson, Space, Boccieri, Ryan, Sutton, Kucinich and Fudge) to support them all. I would rather try to save Wilson -- he seems to be a little to the left of Space, and Space has a better shot at holding a Republican district anyway (although he's been lucky to have two dud opponents so far).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I took another shot at Minnesota, this time aiming for a 6-1 Democratic map:



MN-01 (blue, Tim Walz - D) - Took out a few Republican counties to shore up his district a bit.
MN-02 (green, Erik Paulsen - R) - Paulsen gets the safe R district here, taking in a lot of the exurbs that were in Bachmann's district.
MN-03 (purple, Betty McCollum - D and John Kline - R) - I put Kline in McCollum's district so he would either have to lose, retire, or move and challenge Bachmann or Paulsen.
MN-04 (yellow, Keith Ellison - D) - Not much changed here. Safest district in the state.
MN-05 (grey, Michele Bachmann - R) - To get rid of Bachmann I removed her base of the exurbs and put in most of the inner suburbs of the Twin Cities. Heck, it may even have been won by Obama now. A sane Republican could hold it, but probably not Bachmann.
MN-06 (red, Collin Peterson - D) - Slightly more Republican now, but safe for Peterson.
MN-07 (teal, Jim Oberstar - D) - I'm somewhat unhappy with this one, because now it has to go all the way to the Twin Cities suburbs. Probably pushes it closer to a swing district now.

Now, Minnesota people, tell me how stupid I am (again).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

I know how to get people to comment on my maps...



Less a district. I gave Kanjo the boot.

PA-01 (dark green, Bob Brady - D) - Super-safe Philly district. Yawn.
PA-02 (dark blue, Chaka Fattah - D) - See above, 51% black.
PA-03 (purple district in the NW corner, Kathy Dahlkemper - D) - Had to expand southward, but shouldn't have changed the partisan composition much, as I did remove some of the more Republican counties in the district to compensate.
PA-04 (magenta, Jason Altmire - D) - Western half of Allegheny County and its environs; probably a little more Democratic now.
PA-05 (pink, GT Thompson - R) - Safe Republican district, most of the T.
PA-06 (dark red, Jim Gerlach - R) - This is actually better for the Republicans now that it's most of Chester and all of Berks. Oh well, still 54% Obama or whatever.
PA-07 (yellow one in the SE corner, Joe Sestak - D) - All of Delaware and a bit of Chester, probably close to a safe Dem district now.
PA-08 (yellow-green in the SE corner, Patrick Murphy - D) - Chopped off the top end of Berks and put in some more of Philly. A little more Democratic now?
PA-09 (light purple, Bill Shuster - R) - Actually, this is about the same district as before. Super-safe Republican.
PA-10 (teal, Chris Carney - D) - Takes in Luzerne and Lackawanna and becomes a much more Democratic district.
PA-11 (gold one in between PA-09 and grey, formerly PA-19, Todd Russell Platts - R) - Who? This one didn't change much either. Safe Republican.
PA-12 (dark purple snake, John Murtha - D) - Okay, I had no desire to keep the Murthamander, but I didn't want to just give away a district, so I made this intersting little fellow. I was really trying to make the districts more comprehensible than the current gerrymander, but SW PA is all jacked up. Three Congressmen that live in Allegheny County? Seriously?
PA-13 (light purple in the SE, Allyson Schwarz - D) - Nearly all of Montgomery County and is pretty safe.
PA-14 (orange, Mike Doyle - D) - Most of Pittsburgh and the eastern suburbs. Also safe, I would assume.
PA-15 (brown, Charlie Dent - R) - Didn't change much, but it took the northern end of Berks from Murphy. Should still be around 56% Obama, but I'm sure Dent will hold it until he dies.
PA-16 (grey, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly unchanged, just weird at the bottom because Pitts lives in Chester, but his district is Lancaster-based.
PA-17 (light blue, Tim Holden - D) - The rest of Kanjo's district got put in with Holden to make a district that is probably around 50-50, if not a little Dem-leaning now.
PA-18 (green one in the west, Tim Murphy - R) - Yeah, I don't know why the dude lives outside of Pittsburgh. Anyway, his district is safe R.

[jimrtex]

10 districts for Mass on 2000 population.   Boston, 3 inner suburban, 3 outer suburban-exurban, Worcester-Springfield, Western Mass-Springfield, and Fall River-New Bedford-Cape Cod-Islands.

Plus a modified version based on 2007 estimates.  10 towns were shifted:

(1) + Ashburnham
(2) no change.
(3) - Ashburnham, - Ayer.
(4) + Ayer, + Merrimac, + West Newbury, - Wilmington
(5) + Melrose, - Merrimac, -Wakefield, - West Newbury
(6) - Melrose, +Wakefield, + Wilmington
(7) no change
(8 ) + Plainville
(9) + Freetown, - Kingston, - Plainville
(10) - Freetown, + Kingston

For the new plan maximum absolute deviation 0.16% (1015); mean absolute deviation 0.05% (329)

2000

2007

[RBH]

My map is much meaner to LaTourette.



I resisted the urge to put Kucinich's district in Lake County too

Other parts of the map

[Brittain33]

Is population decline going to screw LaTourette no matter what happens? It looks like any direction he goes in is going to add Democrats, sometimes in large numbers.

[jimrtex]

2000 10 districts:

2007 9 districts:

Mean absolute deviation 0.1% or about 694.  As expected, the Central Mass district disappears.  It is possible to get most of the more populous Connecticut Valley into the West Mass district.  The plan pretty much follows county boundaries with Franklin County minus one town with Worcester; and all of Hampden county, and all of Hampshire County minus 3 towns with Berkshire County.  Fitchburg and Leominster were shifted to the west.  The city of Worcester is close to the edge of its district, but I'm not sure that that there are better alternatives.

Quincy and Milton are the best fit with Boston (0.003%) which meant that the suburban districts ended up being shifted clockwise, to account for the shift in Quincy.

Given the slow growth of the State, something like this plan could be stable until Massachusetts loses its ninth district, though the Boston district could have major shifts in order to maintain population equality and not splitting towns.

[Padfoot]

Is population decline going to screw LaTourette no matter what happens? It looks like any direction he goes in is going to add Democrats, sometimes in large numbers.

Yes and no.  His base of Lake County is growing along with Geauga County which is far more Republican friendly than its neighbors.  So really, his district has to expand because the Democratic counties are bleeding population.  I guess you could say his district has to gain more Democrats because it's lost too many.

[Brittain33]

Is population decline going to screw LaTourette no matter what happens? It looks like any direction he goes in is going to add Democrats, sometimes in large numbers.

Yes and no.  His base of Lake County is growing along with Geauga County which is far more Republican friendly than its neighbors.  So really, his district has to expand because the Democratic counties are bleeding population.  I guess you could say his district has to gain more Democrats because it's lost too many.

Right... "population decline" was unclear, I meant in terms of the state's relative decline which is causing it to lose two districts and which will make his district take in territory because even if it's doing well for Ohio, the 14th is lagging the country as a whole.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I created an 8 district Missouri.

[Verily]

Here's my take on Missouri. Lacy Clay's district is ever-so-slightly plurality black (by just under 2000 people).



Luetkemeyer and Graves, being freshmen, get tossed together in MO-06. MO-04 now stretches along the Missouri River to take in the similar communities along its banks instead of combining them with the ultra-rural counties surrounding them. MO-05 is a mere 21% black despite being represented by a black congressman, but he should be in no danger. MO-03 stretches out into rural-ish areas a bit but not so far as to make Carnahan vulnerable. It's also bleached down even further, losing most of its previous black-majority precincts in St. Louis City and down to a mere 4% black, hardly above the Republican districts. Overall, this map makes three safe Democratic districts (MO-01, MO-03 and MO-05), one district that would be competitive/lean Republican but has a popular Democratic incumbent (MO-04) and four safe Republican districts (MO-02, MO-06, MO-07 and MO-08).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my take on Missouri. Lacy Clay's district is ever-so-slightly plurality black (by just under 2000 people).



Luetkemeyer and Graves, being freshmen, get tossed together in MO-06. MO-04 now stretches along the Missouri River to take in the similar communities along its banks instead of combining them with the ultra-rural counties surrounding them. MO-05 is a mere 21% black despite being represented by a black congressman, but he should be in no danger. MO-03 stretches out into rural-ish areas a bit but not so far as to make Carnahan vulnerable. It's also bleached down even further, losing most of its previous black-majority precincts in St. Louis City and down to a mere 4% black, hardly above the Republican districts. Overall, this map makes three safe Democratic districts (MO-01, MO-03 and MO-05), one district that would be competitive/lean Republican but has a popular Democratic incumbent (MO-04) and four safe Republican districts (MO-02, MO-06, MO-07 and MO-08).

Looks like we had pretty similar intentions:

Here's a fun little gerrymander of Missouri with 8 districts:

Graves is not a freshman, however; whoever replaces Blunt will be, which is why I put Luetkemeyer in that district.

[Verily]

I don't know why I thought Graves was a freshman. Oh well, I like my map a lot better anyway. It's much neater. Although I realize now that I used the old population figures rather than the new estimates, so it's not a great map. Still, I could probably make up all of the differences by fiddling around with the split counties.

[Verily]

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North

If Reichert's district has a higher proportion of Pierce to King now (which I think it does, it looks so), he's safer. He won King 51-49 in 2008 but Pierce 59-41.

[Verily]

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North

If Reichert's district has a higher proportion of Pierce to King now (which I think it does, it looks so), he's safer. He won King 51-49 in 2008 but Pierce 59-41.

It's more than that, though. The district loses some of his strongholds in King like Sammamish and Medina while gaining somewhat more urban parts of King and Pierce. It also loses Bellevue, though, which is I assume the most Democratic part of current WA-08.

The precinct maps of King and Pierce Counties that Alcon did back in November/December would be useful here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Democratic gerrymander of Louisiana:



I've created a map that could theoretically go 4-2 Dem, although it could always just go 6-0 Republican. Though I doubt Cassidy could survive his district being turned into a majority-minority one.

LA-01 (red, Steve Scalise - R) - Still an uber-safe white district.
LA-02 (teal, Joseph Cao - R) - This becomes a plurality-white district (45% white, 43% black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian), so Cao would have a shot at re-election here (assuming he were to win in 2010).
LA-03 (green, Charles Boustany - R) - Boustany's district shifts east and takes in a lot of counties that would be favorable to a Melancon-like Democrat.
LA-04 (yellow, John Fleming - R) - Those little tendrils to the south and east make this district 52% white and 42% black. Would make it tougher for Fleming to hold.
LA-05 (purple, Rodney Alexander - R) - Loses nearly half its black population and becomes safer for the Republicans.
LA-06 (blue, Bill Cassidy - R) - Apparently a majority-black district outside of New Orleans in possible. 51% black, 43% white.

[Nhoj]

He has added new york now. He doesn't have it yet listed as so but it is there.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Does it load for you? My browser keeps crashing when it tries to load the "new population estimates" part. I've never had this problem with any of the other states.

[Nhoj]

Does it load for you? My browser keeps crashing when it tries to load the "new population estimates" part. I've never had this problem with any of the other states.

yes it froze my browser up on me. but it eventually loaded.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Well, having done New York, I can say it's a really boring state to redistrict. Here it is losing a district; I axed NY-23.



NY-01 through NY-17 - These districts didn't change much, if any. All safe D, except for NY-01, which leans D, NY-03, which leans R, and NY-13, which is a swing district.
NY-18 (purple, Westchester-based district; Nita Lowey - D) - Picks up Republican Putnam County, which should be balanced out by Westchester.
NY-19 (ugly green Dutchess/Orange district; John Hall - D) - Loses Putnam and is basically all of Orange and Dutchess now, making it slightly more Democratic.
NY-20 (brown, Scott Murphy - D) - Chopped off the southern part of the district and added parts of NY-23. A couple points more Democratic now.
NY-21 (pink, Albany-based district; Paul Tonko - D) - Slightly more Republican due to some Republican parts of NY-23 added, but still safe D.
NY-22 (dark red, Maurice Hinchey - D) - Lost quite a bit of Dem territory, but still Dem-leaning.
NY-23 (pink, backwards-C shaped district, Eric Massa - D, formerly NY-29) - Cut out a lot of the Republican parts and added Tompkins, Seneca, and more of Monroe. Probably won by Obama now.
NY-24 (dark purple, Mike Arcuri - D) - Still a 50-50 district. If Scozzafava wins in NY-23, she'll be in this district, so Arcuri's going to have to learn how to campaign better.
NY-25 (pale green in the middle of the state, Dan Maffei - D) - Picked up Cortland and part of Chenango. Probably a little more R now, but still leans D.
NY-26 (grey, Chris Lee - R) - Safe R district! Pretty much every Republican county in Western NY.
NY-27 (dark pink, Erie-based; Brian Higgins - D) - Didn't change much.
NY-28 (green, Niagra/Orleans/Monroe/Erie district, Louise Slaughter - D) - Nor this one.

So, there you have it. If the Democrats pick up NY-23 this year, it's going to be hard for them to preserve the district, because NY-29 has a lot of Republican territory that would have to be split up.