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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 308659 times)
Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #450 on: February 08, 2010, 02:40:59 PM »

No, they couldn't win any of those seats with a 51-52% victory. Sorry.

Also, it quite simply is not possible to pack any more Republicans into Walden's district than I did.

How do you post maps from Dave's Redistricting App onto here?
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muon2
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« Reply #451 on: February 09, 2010, 12:46:04 AM »

No, they couldn't win any of those seats with a 51-52% victory. Sorry.

Also, it quite simply is not possible to pack any more Republicans into Walden's district than I did.

How do you post maps from Dave's Redistricting App onto here?

First you have to save your map in the App. Then download and run his map2jpg tool, save the files somewhere on your machine. You can upload the images to the Atlas gallery and link to them in your post. It's worked for me.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #452 on: February 09, 2010, 02:40:36 AM »

No, they couldn't win any of those seats with a 51-52% victory. Sorry.

Also, it quite simply is not possible to pack any more Republicans into Walden's district than I did.

How do you post maps from Dave's Redistricting App onto here?

First you have to save your map in the App. Then download and run his map2jpg tool, save the files somewhere on your machine. You can upload the images to the Atlas gallery and link to them in your post. It's worked for me.

Alternatively, if the application doesn't save it as it happens to me, you can still use "print screen" and then paste it on paint. Wink
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RIP Robert H Bork
officepark
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« Reply #453 on: February 09, 2010, 06:54:49 PM »

No, they couldn't win any of those seats with a 51-52% victory. Sorry.

Also, it quite simply is not possible to pack any more Republicans into Walden's district than I did.

How do you post maps from Dave's Redistricting App onto here?

First you have to save your map in the App. Then download and run his map2jpg tool, save the files somewhere on your machine. You can upload the images to the Atlas gallery and link to them in your post. It's worked for me.

Alternatively, if the application doesn't save it as it happens to me, you can still use "print screen" and then paste it on paint. Wink

That's what I do.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #454 on: February 09, 2010, 07:33:20 PM »

Alternatively, if the application doesn't save it as it happens to me, you can still use "print screen" and then paste it on paint. Wink

That's what I do.

Virginia is too long for that Sad
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #455 on: February 09, 2010, 07:35:30 PM »

Alternatively, if the application doesn't save it as it happens to me, you can still use "print screen" and then paste it on paint. Wink

That's what I do.

Virginia is too long for that Sad

Ben, could you create a really nasty Republican gerrymander of Virginia if you have the time? Or someone else could create it, for that matter. I always want to see more Republican gerrymanders.
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Vepres
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« Reply #456 on: February 09, 2010, 07:46:07 PM »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.

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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #457 on: February 09, 2010, 08:08:12 PM »

Ben, could you create a really nasty Republican gerrymander of Virginia if you have the time? Or someone else could create it, for that matter. I always want to see more Republican gerrymanders.

I'm working on it; the VRA is a bitch.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #458 on: February 09, 2010, 08:56:59 PM »

Ben, could you create a really nasty Republican gerrymander of Virginia if you have the time? Or someone else could create it, for that matter. I always want to see more Republican gerrymanders.

I'm working on it; the VRA is a bitch.

I thought the VRA was beneficial to the GOP. It allows them to pack many black voters into one district. You can make a 65% black district and pack huge amounts of Dems into it.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #459 on: February 10, 2010, 08:09:39 AM »

The current map is about as good a Republican gerrymander as you can get.
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Verily
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« Reply #460 on: February 10, 2010, 10:25:17 AM »

I just drew a Michigan gerrymander that I think would go 13-1 Democratic right now, possibly 11-3 in a good year for Republicans but still intensely favoring the Democrats and mostly safe. Will post it later.
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Vepres
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« Reply #461 on: February 10, 2010, 10:54:08 AM »
« Edited: February 11, 2010, 09:27:33 PM by OFKA Governor Vepres »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.



Ok, I now have time to explain this.

CO-1: Basically unchanged, except a small part of the northern suburbs are now in it instead of southern. Strong Democrat.

CO-2: Instead of taking the ski country, this eats up the more liberal parts of the Adams County. Strong Democrat.

CO-3: Takes up the Western part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.

CO-4: Takes up the conservative Larimer and Weld counties, and the conservative eastern plains. It takes half of Pueblo. Lean GOP.

CO-5: Takes half of Pueblo and El Paso County. Strong GOP.

CO-6: Takes the very conservative suburbs in Jefferson County and the conservative Douglas county. Strong GOP.

CO-7: Most of the population is in the conservative southern Denver suburbs. Slight GOP lean.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #462 on: February 10, 2010, 07:32:45 PM »

The current map is about as good a Republican gerrymander as you can get.

Not quite. You can make the 3rd 65% or more black and you can also split Boucher's district in two (between the 6th and the 5th, assuming Perriello loses in 2010) and create a new Republican district somewhere else in Virginia in compensation.
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Smash255
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« Reply #463 on: February 11, 2010, 01:04:54 AM »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.



Ok, I now have time to explain this.



CO-4: Takes up the eastern part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.



Looks like someone doesn't know east from west Smiley
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #464 on: February 11, 2010, 01:24:07 AM »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.



Ok, I now have time to explain this.



CO-4: Takes up the eastern part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.



Looks like someone doesn't know east from west Smiley

The 4th is in eastern CO.
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BRTD
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« Reply #465 on: February 11, 2010, 11:26:31 AM »

Mesa County is not in eastern CO.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #466 on: February 11, 2010, 11:40:50 AM »


According to the descriptions, one word aside, he's swapped the numbering from the current 3rd and 4th.
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BRTD
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« Reply #467 on: February 11, 2010, 12:03:02 PM »

Here's my new Pennsylvania:



PA-1: Basically the same, expands a bit into Delaware county. Currently has a slight black plurality, but that shouldn't be an issue until Brady retires. Come to think of it I probably should've traded some population with PA-7 to make the latter more black...
PA-2: Also basically the same. Majority black and safe D.
PA-3: Much better for Dahlkemper, as I've cleaned out the Butler county portion.
PA-4: Also most of Butler county is gone. Should be safe for Altmire, and strong for any white pro-life Democrat.
PA-5: Now has Butler county. Obviously safe Republican, Thompson would likely win though don't count out a Butler county Republican challenging him.
PA-6: District now has a sane shape. Gerlach would probably finally be toppled in this seat, as it contains all of Reading yet less of rural Berks, but contains a bit more of Chester, so not a sure thing.
PA-7: Largely the same, a bit outward expanded. Slightly more Republican but could still be won by a Democrat especially if there's an incumbent or Sestak opted to return. Could be made more Dem as noted by putting more blacks in, I should tweak that.
PA-8: Probably gets a bit more Republican, but Murphy should have no problem surviving.
PA-9: Population-wise is probably closer to the old PA-19 than the current PA-9. Shuster might be able to defeat Platts in the primary if he gets the teabaggers on his side through.
PA-10: Becomes slightly more Dem. If Carney survived so far, he'll win here.
PA-11: A bit more Republican, but if Kanjorski retires, should stay Dem.
PA-12: Shuster might have a better chance here than in PA-9 running against whoever takes Murtha's seat. Against a Dem he might be favored. Against a Republican in the primary it'd come down to areas' turnout.
PA-13: Ah, this old classic. Is now more Montco based, so Schwartz is fine.
PA-14: Little change, safe Dem.
PA-15: Now contains Stroudsburg, but Charlie Dent likely still wins.
PA-16: Safe GOP, Pitts wins easily.
PA-17: Condensed a bit more but loses the bit of Reading, Holden should win easily but not so safe if he leaves.
PA-18: Now finally has a sane shape. I don't know the exact partisan breakdown, but Murphy is much more likely to lose, as the current PA-12 was designed to take in all the Dem areas to keep him safe.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #468 on: February 11, 2010, 06:07:17 PM »

Here's my new Pennsylvania:



PA-1: Basically the same, expands a bit into Delaware county. Currently has a slight black plurality, but that shouldn't be an issue until Brady retires. Come to think of it I probably should've traded some population with PA-7 to make the latter more black...
PA-2: Also basically the same. Majority black and safe D.
PA-3: Much better for Dahlkemper, as I've cleaned out the Butler county portion.
PA-4: Also most of Butler county is gone. Should be safe for Altmire, and strong for any white pro-life Democrat.
PA-5: Now has Butler county. Obviously safe Republican, Thompson would likely win though don't count out a Butler county Republican challenging him.
PA-6: District now has a sane shape. Gerlach would probably finally be toppled in this seat, as it contains all of Reading yet less of rural Berks, but contains a bit more of Chester, so not a sure thing.
PA-7: Largely the same, a bit outward expanded. Slightly more Republican but could still be won by a Democrat especially if there's an incumbent or Sestak opted to return. Could be made more Dem as noted by putting more blacks in, I should tweak that.
PA-8: Probably gets a bit more Republican, but Murphy should have no problem surviving.
PA-9: Population-wise is probably closer to the old PA-19 than the current PA-9. Shuster might be able to defeat Platts in the primary if he gets the teabaggers on his side through.
PA-10: Becomes slightly more Dem. If Carney survived so far, he'll win here.
PA-11: A bit more Republican, but if Kanjorski retires, should stay Dem.
PA-12: Shuster might have a better chance here than in PA-9 running against whoever takes Murtha's seat. Against a Dem he might be favored. Against a Republican in the primary it'd come down to areas' turnout.
PA-13: Ah, this old classic. Is now more Montco based, so Schwartz is fine.
PA-14: Little change, safe Dem.
PA-15: Now contains Stroudsburg, but Charlie Dent likely still wins.
PA-16: Safe GOP, Pitts wins easily.
PA-17: Condensed a bit more but loses the bit of Reading, Holden should win easily but not so safe if he leaves.
PA-18: Now finally has a sane shape. I don't know the exact partisan breakdown, but Murphy is much more likely to lose, as the current PA-12 was designed to take in all the Dem areas to keep him safe.

Maybe PA-03 and PA-04 can exchange terrotiroy with PA-18 to make PA-03 and PA-04 more Democratic while making PA-18 more Republican.
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #469 on: February 11, 2010, 09:26:03 PM »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.



Ok, I now have time to explain this.



CO-4: Takes up the eastern part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.



Looks like someone doesn't know east from west Smiley

Oops! LOL
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #470 on: February 11, 2010, 09:27:45 PM »

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.



Ok, I now have time to explain this.

CO-1: Basically unchanged, except a small part of the northern suburbs are now in it instead of southern. Strong Democrat.

CO-2: Instead of taking the ski country, this eats up the more liberal parts of the Adams County. Strong Democrat.

CO-3: Takes up the Western part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.

CO-4: Takes up the conservative Larimer and Weld counties, and the conservative eastern plains. It takes half of Pueblo. Lean GOP.

CO-5: Takes half of Pueblo and El Paso County. Strong GOP.

CO-6: Takes the very conservative suburbs in Jefferson County and the conservative Douglas county. Strong GOP.

CO-7: Most of the population is in the conservative southern Denver suburbs. Slight GOP lean.

Fixed Smiley
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shua
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« Reply #471 on: February 12, 2010, 03:10:53 PM »

Due to current interpretation of the VRA, VA must have at least one majority-minority district. I wanted to see how many majority-minority districts I could create (using newest pop estimates)  without resorting to the level of atrocious gerrymandering of our current 3rd CD.
CD-3: currently black majority, becomes black plurality (46%).
CD-4: currently white majority, becomes black plurality (47%). moves from lean-R to D.
CD-11: currently white majority, becomes white plurality (49%). moves from lean-D to D.
 


(note: CD 9 is to the West)



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Devilman88
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« Reply #472 on: February 12, 2010, 03:49:12 PM »

How many majority-minority district does NC have to have according to VRA Rules?
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #473 on: February 12, 2010, 05:59:56 PM »

How many majority-minority district does NC have to have according to VRA Rules?

2 I believe: Butterfield's and Watt's.
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Bo
Rochambeau
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« Reply #474 on: February 12, 2010, 06:01:16 PM »

Due to current interpretation of the VRA, VA must have at least one majority-minority district. I wanted to see how many majority-minority districts I could create (using newest pop estimates)  without resorting to the level of atrocious gerrymandering of our current 3rd CD.
CD-3: currently black majority, becomes black plurality (46%).
CD-4: currently white majority, becomes black plurality (47%). moves from lean-R to D.
CD-11: currently white majority, becomes white plurality (49%). moves from lean-D to D.
 


(note: CD 9 is to the West)





I can make two black majority districts in VA and one white-plurality one.
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