Dave's Redistricting App

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's not impossible that Mitchell could win the 10th district here.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Republican gerrymander of Wisconsin:



WI-01 (blue, Paul Ryan - R) - Excised Racine and added some more heavily-Republican parts west of Milwaukee, so it should be a pretty Republican district now.
WI-02 (green, Tammy Baldwin - D) - Didn't change much.
WI-03 (purple, Ron Kind - D) - Removed a couple Republican counties and added Portage County, so it's more a Lean Dem district than a swing district with a Dem tilt. If that makes any sense.
WI-04 (red, Gwen Moore - D) - Barely changed, as it's already a heavily-Dem urban Milwaukee district.
WI-05 (yellow, Jim Sensenbrenner - R) - Took in Racine and some of the inner Mikwaukee suburbs from Ryan, but it shouldn't affect the solidly-Republican nature of this district.
WI-06 (teal, Tom Petri - R) - Expanded north to take in a large swath of Steve Kagen's district, but it shouldn't change the partisan lean much, if any.
WI-07 (grey, open - D) - Removing Portage and adding a few Republican-leaning counties (St. Croix and Clark) should tip the balance of this swing district in favor of the Republicans. Doesn't change the numbers much, but it does go from a Kerry district to a Bush district.
WI-08 (light purple, Steve Kagen - D) - Carved up Kagen's district somewhat; attached his hometown of Appleton to a Green Bay/outer Milwaukee suburban district. Doesn't change the presidential numbers any, but the large swath of unfamiliar territory could help Republicans knock him out.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I decided to see what a GOP gerrymander of Minnesota would look like:





Districts:

MN-01 (blue): Doesn't change much, added a few more Republican counties. Walz could probably hang on but the GOP would have a far better chance if he left.
MN-02 (green): Had to take in northern Dakota county, so I tried to cancel it out with parts of Wright and outer Hennepin. Safe for Kline.
MN-03 (purple): Gains some DFL inner suburbs and a few exurbs though at the expense of other exurbs. Still likely safe for Paulsen.
MN-04 (red): St. Paul removed. Ramsey County is still DFL outside of it though, Washington is marginal, the north side is very Republican, probably a tossup.
MN-05 (yellow): Twin Cities combined, plus Richfield. Very very safe DFL, probably around D+22.
MN-06 (teal): Sort of combining some northern exurbs with northern Minnesota rural areas and Duluth. Much of northern St. Louis County removed, so the seat could go GOP, though not with Oberstar in it (though he'd live in Chisholm now.)
MN-07 (gray): Becomes more DFL. Collin Peterson is obviously safe and the GOP have much less of a chance of taking his seat once he retires, but they don't even bother to target him now and he votes with them most of the time anyway, so making him safer probably won't bother them.

BTW Bachmann is a major impediment in this scenario, she lives in the red district but couldn't win it. Unfortunately that likely means she wins the primary. In a rematch with Tinklenberg (who also lives there), Tinklenberg would win easily. The GOP would be best off just hoping for a wave year before 2020 to oust him.

[Bacon King]

Here's a nine district Arizona. All districts accurate to within 200 of ideal; total deviation between the most and least populous districts is 348. I preserved the 1st-2nd district split as best I could in the north. I don't know the specific reasons for the design, but I kept all Native-majority precincts up there in the district they'd been in before (except the two needed to keep CD 2 contiguous).



Detail of the Phoenix area.

First District (Blue): 48% White, 26% Hispanic, 20% Native.
A "coalition" district like Verily was talking about earlier. I preserved the split between the first and second districts as best I could. In the south I added Cociche County and most of Tucson. Safe Dem.

Second District (Green): 78% White, 14% Hispanic.
The connection to the Navajo County reservation is now contiguous, but still allows the rest of the surrounding area to be in the same district. Some changes, but not too many. Safe GOP.

Third District (Purple): 82% White, 11% Hispanic.
This district got pushed up and over a bit to make room for the new district, and in the process became whiter and more suburban. Safe GOP.

Fourth District (Red): 51% Hispanic, 38% White, 6% Black.
The first Hispanic-majority VRA district. I had to push it somewhat into the western suburbs to make room for CD9, but this district should still be Safe Dem.

Fifth District (Yellow): 53% White, 35% Hispanic, 4% Black, 4% Asian.
Condensed and centered around Tempe. Made demographically much safer for the incumbent. Safe Dem.

Sixth District (Teal): 77% White, 15% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Switched some territory with the 5th CD so they'd both be better holds for their respective parties. Safe GOP.

Seventh District (Gray): 51% Hispanic, 38% White, 5% Native.
The second Hispanic-majority VRA district. Lost white parts of La Paz, gained Hispanic parts of Pinal as well as territory from the old 8th CD south of Tucson. Safe Dem.

Eigth District (Light Purple): 75% White, 17% Hispanic.
The most radically changed district; still holds most of the white areas of Tucson but lost everything south of that in order to expand north to fill the east Phoenix metro area. Safe GOP.

Ninth District (Cyan): 51% Hispanic, 36% White, 7% Black.
The third Hispanic-majority VRA district, consisting of most of the eastern part of the old CD 4. It also takes some Hispanic areas out of the old CD 3. Safe Dem.

Appearance-wise, I think this map is decent but could be a bit better. Coconino/Navajo counties are atrocious, of course, but I'm operating under the assumption that there's some specific need for that design. The split of La Paz County seems kind of funny. The 9th District looks a bit odd. The 4th District looks funny extending so far south. I don't like how the 6th District slinks around the 5th. The 1st District in Tucson looks funny but I couldn't make it look more natural due to population equality issues. Also, the 8th district as a whole looks too stretched out to me. But anyway.

Without really intending to, I made this district a pro-incumbent gerrymander (which basically becomes a Democratic gerrmander when you consider that the 1st and 5th are both marginal seats, and that the new district will definitely be Democratic as well). Also I don't know much about politics in the 8th district but the incumbent might have trouble with so much new terrain. So I suppose this design is more of a Democratic gerrymander than anything else.

Maybe I'm being a bit too critical of my own work but I think this design could be done a lot better, I just don't see how. Opinions?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not exactly a Dem gerrymander. Gabrielle Giffords won't be too happy.





New Hispanic seat and keeps all incumbents happy. Which is probably what Arizona's non-partisan redistricting commission will aim for.

[muon2]

Florida is likely to gain one seat in the reapportionment, bring the total to 26. Based on that there should be at least 4 black and 5 Hispanic seats to maintain proportionality with the overall population. I've drawn a version to accomplish that with a maximum deviation of 52 persons using 2008 data.



The majority-minority districts are:

CD-3 (purple, Tallahassee to Jacksonville) 51.3% Black
CD-11 (pale green, Tampa/St Pete to Orlando and Sanford) 50.4% Black
CD-17 (purple-blue, Miami to Hollywood) 52.0% Black
CD-23 (sky blue, Palm Beach to Ft Lauderdale) 54.2% Black

CD-18 (yellow, Miami Beach to Key West) 58.9% Hispanic
CD-20 (pink, Davie to Hialeah) 57.9% Hispanic
CD-21 (brick red, Weston to Homestead) 60.2% Hispanic
CD-25 (dusty rose, Coral Springs to the Everglades) 60.1% Hispanic
CD-26 (gray, Orlando to Naples) 50.2% Hispanic

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

That district 11 is stretching the rules more than a little.

[Brittain33]

Wow, that map would end the careers of Boyd, Castor, Grayson, Wasserman Schultz, and probably Klein in exchange for one new African-American district and preserving the two in South Florida against population decline. If there was an award named for Tom DeLay, this would be the first winner.

[muon2]

That district 11 is stretching the rules more than a little.

The only stretch is that the district is drawn solely due to racial considerations, which violates SCOTUS rulings. However, FL is a VRA section 5 state requiring DOJ preclearance, and can create a majority-minority district in central FL. I don't think anyone knows how Obama's DOJ will handle these section 5 cases.

[muon2]

Wow, that map would end the careers of Boyd, Castor, Grayson, Wasserman Schultz, and probably Klein in exchange for one new African-American district and preserving the two in South Florida against population decline. If there was an award named for Tom DeLay, this would be the first winner.

Interestingly, I didn't look at any incumbent's residence before drawing the map. Just the census data. I suspect that DOJ will require preservation of the two So FL black districts to avoid retrogression.

[Padfoot]

That district 11 is stretching the rules more than a little.

The only stretch is that the district is drawn solely due to racial considerations, which violates SCOTUS rulings. However, FL is a VRA section 5 state requiring DOJ preclearance, and can create a majority-minority district in central FL. I don't think anyone knows how Obama's DOJ will handle these section 5 cases.

By my count, Florida currently has 3 Hispanic majority districts, 2 Black majority districts, 1 black plurality district (FL-3 is 49.3% black), and one white plurality district (FL-11 is 48.3% White, 27.4% Black, 2.0% Asian, and 20.0% Hispanic).  If that map was acceptable in 2000 I can't see how 4 black districts will be needed in the 2010 redraw unless there has been an explosion in the black population of Florida.  5 Hispanic districts probably makes sense given that group's population growth.

[muon2]

That district 11 is stretching the rules more than a little.

The only stretch is that the district is drawn solely due to racial considerations, which violates SCOTUS rulings. However, FL is a VRA section 5 state requiring DOJ preclearance, and can create a majority-minority district in central FL. I don't think anyone knows how Obama's DOJ will handle these section 5 cases.

By my count, Florida currently has 3 Hispanic majority districts, 2 Black majority districts, 1 black plurality district (FL-3 is 49.3% black), and one white plurality district (FL-11 is 48.3% White, 27.4% Black, 2.0% Asian, and 20.0% Hispanic).  If that map was acceptable in 2000 I can't see how 4 black districts will be needed in the 2010 redraw unless there has been an explosion in the black population of Florida.  5 Hispanic districts probably makes sense given that group's population growth.

I had noticed that FL-3 is currently from Jacksonville to Orlando, but was only a plurality. It does better across the northern border, and if the FL legislature draws it that way, I'm confident it would stand.

I'm surprised that there weren't 4 Hispanic districts in 2000. The only dicey Hispanic district this time is the new one I created as CD-26. It's not too out of line, and it may be in the legislature's interest to create it there to strengthen the GOP in the other Oralndo area districts.

[Padfoot]

By my count, Florida currently has 3 Hispanic majority districts, 2 Black majority districts, 1 black plurality district (FL-3 is 49.3% black), and one white plurality district (FL-11 is 48.3% White, 27.4% Black, 2.0% Asian, and 20.0% Hispanic).  If that map was acceptable in 2000 I can't see how 4 black districts will be needed in the 2010 redraw unless there has been an explosion in the black population of Florida.  5 Hispanic districts probably makes sense given that group's population growth.

I had noticed that FL-3 is currently from Jacksonville to Orlando, but was only a plurality. It does better across the northern border, and if the FL legislature draws it that way, I'm confident it would stand.

I'm surprised that there weren't 4 Hispanic districts in 2000. The only dicey Hispanic district this time is the new one I created as CD-26. It's not too out of line, and it may be in the legislature's interest to create it there to strengthen the GOP in the other Oralndo area districts.

Unfortunately I'm not savvy enough to figure out how to post the map I just made (the map2jpeg program provided is distorting my maps beyond repair).  So I guess I'll just describe it as best I can.  Using 26 districts and the 2008 data I was able to create the following:

A fairly close copy of the current CD-3 with some parts of Orlando dropped and a new stretch over to the black parts of Daytona Beach to create a 49% black district.

CD-11 remains compact in the Tampa area with a plurality of whites at 43% and an additional 24% Hispanics, 28% blacks, and 3% Asians.

I formed a second plurality white district in the Orlando area and made it the new CD-15.  The stats are 46% white, 14% black, 5% Asian, and 33% Hispanic.  The district takes up the southwest corner of Orange Co and the city of Kissimmee and is mostly territory from the current CD-8.  I remade CD-8 to be nearly all of Seminole Co and parts of northern Orange Co.  CD-24 is now all of Brevard and Indian River Cos. with some small segments of Orange and Volusia.  CD-12 is now Osceola Co minus Kissimmee and nearly all of Polk Co.

CD-26, the new district, is essentially all non-Tampa parts of Hillborough Co, plus all of Hardee and Desoto Cos, and parts of Manatee Co north and west of Bradenton.

I was able to mostly preserve CD-17 and CD-23 and they came out as 53% and 52% black respectively.  I removed the finger of CD-23 reaching up to Fort Pearce though.

I did some rearranging around CD-17 to create 4 Hispanic districts.  I added the northwestern corner of the current CD-20 to CD-21.  I then took the remainder of Miami and added it to CD-20 making it 59% Hispanic.  CD-21 drops everything south of Hialeah and is 62% Hispanic.  CD-18 picks up a large chunk of CD-25 in and around Homestead as well as most of the old CD-21's southern tail.  CD-18 ends up being 54% Hispanic.  CD-25 picks up all of Henry Co and almost all of Collier Co and winds up being 60% Hispanic.

So in short I came up with 4 Hispanic districts, 2 black districts + 1 plurality black district, and 2 plurality white districts.  With the exception of CD-3 and the surrounding mess associated with creating CD-23, the map looks fairly compact.  

One thing to note is that Floridians will be voting on three amendments to their state constitution regarding redistricting this year.  Amendments 5 & 6 are backed by the typical alliances associated with redistricting reform while Amendment 7 was written and passed by Republicans in the Florida legislature and is viewed by the backers of the first two amendments as a way to circumvent and nullify their reforms.  I believe both sides have challenged the others' amendment(s) in court to prevent them from making it to the ballot.  If Amendment 7 fails but 5 & 6 are passed we could be in for some major shake-ups in Florida politics come 2012.

[muon2]

Unfortunately I'm not savvy enough to figure out how to post the map I just made (the map2jpeg program provided is distorting my maps beyond repair).  So I guess I'll just describe it as best I can.  Using 26 districts and the 2008 data I was able to create the following:

A fairly close copy of the current CD-3 with some parts of Orlando dropped and a new stretch over to the black parts of Daytona Beach to create a 49% black district.

CD-11 remains compact in the Tampa area with a plurality of whites at 43% and an additional 24% Hispanics, 28% blacks, and 3% Asians.

I formed a second plurality white district in the Orlando area and made it the new CD-15.  The stats are 46% white, 14% black, 5% Asian, and 33% Hispanic.  The district takes up the southwest corner of Orange Co and the city of Kissimmee and is mostly territory from the current CD-8.  I remade CD-8 to be nearly all of Seminole Co and parts of northern Orange Co.  CD-24 is now all of Brevard and Indian River Cos. with some small segments of Orange and Volusia.  CD-12 is now Osceola Co minus Kissimmee and nearly all of Polk Co.

CD-26, the new district, is essentially all non-Tampa parts of Hillborough Co, plus all of Hardee and Desoto Cos, and parts of Manatee Co north and west of Bradenton.

I was able to mostly preserve CD-17 and CD-23 and they came out as 53% and 52% black respectively.  I removed the finger of CD-23 reaching up to Fort Pearce though.

I did some rearranging around CD-17 to create 4 Hispanic districts.  I added the northwestern corner of the current CD-20 to CD-21.  I then took the remainder of Miami and added it to CD-20 making it 59% Hispanic.  CD-21 drops everything south of Hialeah and is 62% Hispanic.  CD-18 picks up a large chunk of CD-25 in and around Homestead as well as most of the old CD-21's southern tail.  CD-18 ends up being 54% Hispanic.  CD-25 picks up all of Henry Co and almost all of Collier Co and winds up being 60% Hispanic.

So in short I came up with 4 Hispanic districts, 2 black districts + 1 plurality black district, and 2 plurality white districts.  With the exception of CD-3 and the surrounding mess associated with creating CD-23, the map looks fairly compact.  

The map generator in the app has been broken since the start of the year. A change in the district boundaries seems be be the cause. I made my map by taking two separate screen shots and putting them together in Paint.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

How many State House seats won by McCain can you squeeze out of Rhode Island? (They have 75 total). I haven't managed more than two. I'm not sure if more than two is possible.

A McCain State Senate seat seems impossible...

[Bacon King]

How many State House seats won by McCain can you squeeze out of Rhode Island? (They have 75 total). I haven't managed more than two. I'm not sure if more than two is possible.

A McCain State Senate seat seems impossible...

How do you get partisan data for RI?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

On the Atlas here. Town data and precincts.

[enlightened despot]

Florida is likely to gain one seat in the reapportionment, bring the total to 26. Based on that there should be at least 4 black and 5 Hispanic seats to maintain proportionality with the overall population. I've drawn a version to accomplish that with a maximum deviation of 52 persons using 2008 data.



The majority-minority districts are:

CD-3 (purple, Tallahassee to Jacksonville) 51.3% Black
CD-11 (pale green, Tampa/St Pete to Orlando and Sanford) 50.4% Black
CD-17 (purple-blue, Miami to Hollywood) 52.0% Black
CD-23 (sky blue, Palm Beach to Ft Lauderdale) 54.2% Black

CD-18 (yellow, Miami Beach to Key West) 58.9% Hispanic
CD-20 (pink, Davie to Hialeah) 57.9% Hispanic
CD-21 (brick red, Weston to Homestead) 60.2% Hispanic
CD-25 (dusty rose, Coral Springs to the Everglades) 60.1% Hispanic
CD-26 (gray, Orlando to Naples) 50.2% Hispanic

This site shows a redistricting case that crosses the bay, although it was a State Senate seat. I don't think your 11th district would survive, but it might be able to if it went along the southern edge of Hillsborough county. However, that would force the 9th, 10th and either the 8th or 12th to swap areas.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I notice the list of supported states has not been updated in a long time.

1. What are the supported states?
2. What states have partisan data?

[enlightened despot]

I notice the list of supported states has not been updated in a long time.

1. What are the supported states?
2. What states have partisan data?

1. All but the at-large states
2. New York, California, Texas (you have to click "use test data" first before choosing those states) and Maryland (don't click "use test data") are the ones I know of.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

I notice the list of supported states has not been updated in a long time.

1. What are the supported states?
2. What states have partisan data?

1. All but the at-large states
2. New York, California, Texas (you have to click "use test data" first before choosing those states) and Maryland (don't click "use test data") are the ones I know of.

Thank you.

[muon2]

I've been trying to gerrymander Louisiana with three majority black districts, but I figured out that it isn't quite possible with six districts without making the map completely ridiculous. However, it can be done with the current seven districts.



All less than 500 from ideal:

Blue: 85% White, 10% Black
Green: 54% Black, 43% White
Purple: 77% White, 13% Black, 5% Hispanic
Red: 74% White, 22% Black
Yellow: 50.3% Black, 46.5% White
Teal: 80% White, 15% Black
Gray: 61% Black, 31% White

Lousiana has actually had far more atrocious gerrymanders than this in the past.

I decided to see how ridiculous a 3 black of 6 CD gerrymander would be. The 2008 data was used and the maximum deviation is 7 persons from the ideal. CD's 2, 4, and 6 range from 52.0% to 53.1% black. The other three districts are all over 80% white. CD 3 connects across various bays, sounds, and lakes along the coast to remain contiguous.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

This app just made me realize that NC-06 and NC-13 rely on a rather "unique" definition of continguous.

[jimrtex]

This app just made me realize that NC-06 and NC-13 rely on a rather "unique" definition of continguous.

If they would just adopt my idea of microthreads they would not need to resort to that sort of deception.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not really as even those would have to cross each other. The current setup is an obvious attempt to keep a chunk of Republican exurbia out of Brad Miller's district. And NC-12's long stringy shape makes things a bit more difficult. NC Democrats kind of drew themselves into a corner really though I'm sure they'll find a way to preserve all the Democratic-held seats when redistricting comes around. But it's kind of tricky.