Dave's Redistricting App
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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 307649 times)
Verily
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« Reply #1025 on: January 24, 2011, 04:53:33 PM »
« edited: January 24, 2011, 05:01:05 PM by Verily »

I'm curious if anyone knows--has Dave's Redistricting been updated for the 2009 ACS figures? I ask specifically about Georgia (I know he has new figures for New England.) I was poking around the NYT map, and then verified this info on the American FactFinder Census site, and the black population is increasing so fast in some parts of the suburban Atlanta metro that it may in fact be not only possible but easy to draw a fourth black majority seat in the Atlanta metro (which could affect whether the DOJ  sues to force one).

For example, Rockdale County, GA was estimated at 32.6% black in 2008 ACS and is now estimated at 37.0% black in the 2009 ACS. On that 3.4% annual increase, it would be around 39% black at the 2010 Census (which is less than a full year after the ACS). Similar rapid growth is shown in Newton County, Henry County, Douglas County and Cobb County (and to a lesser extent in Gwinnett County, where Hispanics and Asians form the larger part of the new residents, and in Clayton County, which increased from 51% black in 2000 to 60% in the 2009 ACS but seems to have stabilized recently). It is accompanied by a slight decline in Fulton County, but the decline in Fulton is tiny relative to the increase in the others. If the changes really are that rapid, how easy a black district is to create might change dramatically from the 2008 estimates to the 2009 ones, or to the actual 2010 census figures (which will include another half-year of change after the 2009 estimates). And even on the 2008 numbers it is possible, just barely, to craft four black majority seats in the area (albeit only 50-51% black each).
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1026 on: January 24, 2011, 05:22:06 PM »

He's been updating the states with the ACS figures, but I'm assuming he hasn't gotten them all in yet. When he does updates, he posts them on SSP and on the launch page:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html
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Verily
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« Reply #1027 on: January 24, 2011, 05:44:52 PM »

Just checked, and it appears Georgia at least is up-to-date on the block group version. Awesome; time to try to draw 4 black majority seats in the Atlanta metro.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1028 on: January 25, 2011, 03:00:42 PM »

I posted a diary about redistricting the Virginia Senate at SSP. Check it out if you like.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1029 on: January 25, 2011, 06:00:19 PM »

He's been updating the states with the ACS figures, but I'm assuming he hasn't gotten them all in yet. When he does updates, he posts them on SSP and on the launch page:

http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/launchapp.html

The ACS figures are from 2005-2009, so are kind of a blurry 2007 estimate, but will still provide better intracounty distribution.


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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1030 on: January 25, 2011, 07:01:37 PM »

I've just done an Arizona map.

All states but Iowa and Wyoming are on ACS figures for the block groups now. (Which means it makes sense to use these rather than the Voting Districts in the future.)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1031 on: February 08, 2011, 02:31:05 PM »

An article about Dave's Redistricting App
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Mexino Vote
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« Reply #1032 on: February 08, 2011, 04:03:28 PM »

This App is great Cheesy

I'm trying to make a OKC DEM seat. The best I got so far is around 53% R
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1033 on: February 08, 2011, 04:40:34 PM »

Did you include Norman?
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Platypus
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« Reply #1034 on: February 10, 2011, 12:20:40 AM »

OK, I know this has been asked and answered many times before, but...how do I save a map? I've got an Ohio I'd like to share.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1035 on: February 10, 2011, 12:43:39 AM »

OK, I know this has been asked and answered many times before, but...how do I save a map? I've got an Ohio I'd like to share.
Either click "save view" or just do a screenshot.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #1036 on: February 13, 2011, 06:21:49 PM »



As of Census 2000, Omaha has only one minority-majority seat in the Unicameral - the 11th. . That however was 72% Black, 20% White. It's conceivable that no. 7 is majority hispanic now - in 2000 it was 58% White, 32% Hispanic.

In the map above (with 2005-9 ACS data), I drew three. And none of them has any major lily-white areas slapped on just to make the numbers, something I always find distasteful. Most of the blocks around their edges are majority white, but they are mixed.

The 7th-like seat in the southeast corner is 57% Hispanic, 35% White, the pale red seat is 51% Black, 32% White, and the grey seat north of it is 50% Black, 41% White. The ugly tan thing between them is 76% White, 10% Hispanic, 7% Black.
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Mexino Vote
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« Reply #1037 on: February 13, 2011, 08:01:51 PM »


yes, but only the University areas and the minority precincts. The map looks very ugly. I am still working on it as I want to extend it into what is currently OK-02 aka Mega-ugly-gerrymander Smiley
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1038 on: February 16, 2011, 08:31:53 PM »

The app has been updated with the 2010 census data and 2008 partisan data for Virginia.
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Platypus
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« Reply #1039 on: February 17, 2011, 08:16:50 PM »



7 district WV, for no particular reason. Districts must be within 75 of the ideal and county splits should be avoided.

Vague attempt at getting a split delegation (3-3 with 1 swing) but in WV it's hard to be precise about that kind of thing.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1040 on: February 23, 2011, 08:59:35 AM »

I gotta say, I love how the app w/ census data has boxes for both population and VAP.
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muon2
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« Reply #1041 on: February 26, 2011, 10:07:38 AM »

I gotta say, I love how the app w/ census data has boxes for both population and VAP.

That's actually I request I sent to him about a month ago. I pointed out that VAP is the correct measure for legal purposes. I was impressed to see how fast it was implemented.
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nclib
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« Reply #1042 on: February 26, 2011, 06:55:26 PM »

Are any of the following possible?

- McCain district in New England (I'm guessing only NH is possible)
- McCain district in New York City excluding Staten Island
- Obama, white non-Hispanic majority district in Texas, Arizona, or New Mexico
- Obama district in West Virginia
- Obama Hispanic district in Florida
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Bacon King
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« Reply #1043 on: February 26, 2011, 08:11:07 PM »

It's pretty easy to make a McCain district in southern Brooklyn; I just made a 59% McCain district there.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1044 on: February 26, 2011, 09:59:32 PM »

White-majority Obama district in NM:



It's easy to make one by connecting Santa Fe with eastern Bernalillo and Los Alamos, so I tried to make one that was at least 60% white.

And here's a cornucopia of white-majority Obama districts in Texas (I didn't use the new pop estimates because they apparently reduce the total population for some reason; I did use the new apportionment numbers):



You may have to open the latter in a new window to see it better.
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Verily
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« Reply #1045 on: February 26, 2011, 10:15:19 PM »

- Obama Hispanic district in Florida

Already exists. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen's seat voted for Obama. You could probably make two if you diluted the Cuban vote more (but the data isn't out yet).
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Dgov
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« Reply #1046 on: February 27, 2011, 05:48:04 PM »

Are any of the following possible?

- McCain district in New England (I'm guessing only NH is possible)
- McCain district in New York City excluding Staten Island
- Obama, white non-Hispanic majority district in Texas, Arizona, or New Mexico
- Obama district in West Virginia
- Obama Hispanic district in Florida

I remember SSP had a map of Massachusetts with 2 McCain Districts, though those were ugly and only barely McCain.  Also, I'm pretty sure you can draw at least one in Connecticut (Northern Fairfield county and then some white suburbs around the state)

Yeah, it's easy to draw one in South Brooklyn.  You can actually draw a district with like 150,000 people in it that voted 80% McCain (Hasidic Jews vote very Republican)

As for Arizona, you probably can draw a white, Obama district just by drawing one in the city of Tuscon.  Also, one going from Tempe stretching around the Democratic parts of Phoenix might work as well, though in both cases its just Highly Democratic Hispanics out-voting the Marginally Republican whites.

As for West Virginia, I doubt it.  his best county was Boone, with 54% of the Vote, and there's no county in WV big enough where you might be able to draw an Obama-leaning part out of it.
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Verily
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« Reply #1047 on: February 27, 2011, 05:53:32 PM »

As for West Virginia, I doubt it.  his best county was Boone, with 54% of the Vote, and there's no county in WV big enough where you might be able to draw an Obama-leaning part out of it.

Sure there is. Kanawha County has very clear polarization between the poor, Democratic areas along the river and the less poor, Republican areas uphill. I'm sure you could draw an Obama seat in WV if you had partisan data by voting district.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #1048 on: February 27, 2011, 09:53:05 PM »

The app has been updated with 2010 census data for all the states that are currently out, with the exception of Oregon.
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Horus
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« Reply #1049 on: February 28, 2011, 07:10:18 AM »

Chicago 2000 vs. Chicago 2010. Notice the clear migration of blacks from downtown to the suburns, not that we didn't already know this. For as diverse as it is, North Chicago doesn't look too different.

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