Dave's Redistricting App

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thanks for sucking up my night. I spent it drawing a 50-district Minnesota.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Thanks for sucking up my night. I spent it drawing a 50-district Minnesota.

At least, that is working at your house.

I don't have a house.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The map I got for Iowa using the type of standards they use is very bad news for Latham. He only survives if he can pull an upset against King in the primary, but that won't be easy with the district in question more similar to King's now, and the very conservative GOP primary electorate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Amusingly I tried a 4 district Nevada map splitting Reno in half and found out both districts also have to include parts of Las Vegas. West Las Vegas + southern Reno and northern Reno + North Las Vegas, that's kind of an amusing setupu.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota with seven districts:



CD-01 - yellow (Walz and Kline put in same district)
CD-02 - red (Paulsen)
CD-03 - green (Ellison)
CD-04 - blue (McCollum and Bachmann put in same district)
CD-05 - purple (no incumbent)
CD-06 - teal (Oberstar)
CD-07 - grey (Peterson)

I do these things without knowing where the incumbents live, so I dismantled Kline's district and accidentally put him in Walz rather than Paulsen as I intended. Also, Bachmann ends up in McCollum's district, but she'd obviously move to the safe new CD-05. I haven't figured out the Obama/McCain percentages for these districts, since districts 1 through 3 have partial counties in them. Any comments from the Minnesota crowd?

Actually, that doesn't put Kline and Walz in the same district, it put Walz's home and my former home of Mankato into MN-7. Kline would be the only incumbent in the new MN-01, but he would likely lose. Adding Mankato back into the district and ditching the Dakota county suburbia would be more logical, and would likely result in a less ugly MN-02. Kline's home is also very close to the border, so he could easily be put in MN-02, resulting in an open MN-01 seat, which probably leans Dem. Walz could move to Albert Lea or Rochester I suppose, but Mankato/North Mankato is his super-solid base. I also don't see the reasoning in keeping Carver County out of MN-02 either. No one in Minnesota would like that map, the legislature would never pass it.

Not much reshuffling is needed though, Blue Earth and Nicollet and the connecting counties back to MN-01, Carver into MN-02, some of the northern parts of that purple district to MN-06, the cede some of the western parts to MN-7, clean up the southern rural part of MN-02 a bit as well which would result in some ceding to MN-07 and splitting up the Dakota county suburbs between MN-02 and MN-04, and you have a map that would look nicer, and would likely elect the same incumbents, and make them happier. I should try a map except I'm not sure how to post them, maybe I'll just upload the XML file and let someone else do it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's a redo of Indiana.  I'm not really sure why their districts were so funky looking in the first place.

Because it was basically a Democratic gerrymander.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I mean, if I even has a "Documents and Settings" folder, that might help.

* On Windows Vista files are saved in:

      C:\Users\<username>\AppData\LocalLow\Microsoft\Silverlight\is\<junkdir1>\<junkdir2>\1\s\<junkdir3>\f\DavesRedistrictingFiles\<state>

See if you can find the "Silverlight" directory.

When you were drawing the plan, did you do a Save As or a Save?  You might also have to actually type a file name in the box up by the File menu.

As I said, I don't have an AppData.

I get this sort of stuff at my job all the time.

Make sure you have it set up to show hidden files and folders.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK I uploaded the file for my Bachmann-free map here. Anyone else able to convert it into a JPEG? Not sure how.

http://www.sendspace.com/file/xurq37

I think it is wrong and childish of you to target any one elected official, in particular, for elimination.

If a district is lost someone has to go, why not make it my least favorite person in the delegation, not to mention also the most likely target of the legislature as well? And as noted you did the same for Murtha.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Arizona does use an independent commission actually.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my attempt to an uber-Dem gerrymander for Oregon. Complete control of the redistricting if they go all out might look like this:

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If only I had more detailed precinct data these would be more accurate.

OR-1: 58% Obama
OR-2: 55% McCain
OR-3: 72% Obama
OR-4: 55% Obama
OR-5: 54% Obama
OR-6: 56% Obama

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I could try that later.

Interestingly I just played around with a GOP gerrymander in Minnesota, and found out the GOP goal of combining the Twin Cities could seriously backfire and result in ALL seats being Democratic!

MN-1: I added a bunch more Republican counties to the district (Sibley, McLeod, Redwood and part of Carver) but Walz is probably too tough to be broken.
MN-2: Gets more Democratic. Loses much of Carver county and gains more Democratic areas like the _________ St. Pauls and part of southern Washington County. Kline might be safe but if he retired...
MN-3: Basically Hennepin County minus Minneapolis, Golden Valley and Robbinsdale, plus the parts of Anoka in the current MN-5. Fairly strong Democratic territory, more than the current seat. Paulsen could still survive, but not guaranteed.
MN-4: Ramsey county outside of St. Paul plus the northern suburbs, like almost all of Washington and Anoka counties. Ramsey outside of St. Paul is enough honestly. Even with Elk River in it, it ends up marginally Democratic.
MN-5: Well this is the Minneapolis + St. Paul seat so...
MN-6: Basically the current MN-8 more than Bachmann's seat, runs from the northeast corner to the exurbs and St. Cloud. Oberstar would not lose in such a seat. If he retired it would be competitive but not a sure thing.
MN-7: Gets a bit more Dem. Obviously safe for Peterson, and a likely hold if he retired.

Conversely though it could result in every seat except MN-5 flipping, so the DFL isn't likely to try it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mesa County is not in eastern CO.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Here's my new Pennsylvania:



PA-1: Basically the same, expands a bit into Delaware county. Currently has a slight black plurality, but that shouldn't be an issue until Brady retires. Come to think of it I probably should've traded some population with PA-7 to make the latter more black...
PA-2: Also basically the same. Majority black and safe D.
PA-3: Much better for Dahlkemper, as I've cleaned out the Butler county portion.
PA-4: Also most of Butler county is gone. Should be safe for Altmire, and strong for any white pro-life Democrat.
PA-5: Now has Butler county. Obviously safe Republican, Thompson would likely win though don't count out a Butler county Republican challenging him.
PA-6: District now has a sane shape. Gerlach would probably finally be toppled in this seat, as it contains all of Reading yet less of rural Berks, but contains a bit more of Chester, so not a sure thing.
PA-7: Largely the same, a bit outward expanded. Slightly more Republican but could still be won by a Democrat especially if there's an incumbent or Sestak opted to return. Could be made more Dem as noted by putting more blacks in, I should tweak that.
PA-8: Probably gets a bit more Republican, but Murphy should have no problem surviving.
PA-9: Population-wise is probably closer to the old PA-19 than the current PA-9. Shuster might be able to defeat Platts in the primary if he gets the teabaggers on his side through.
PA-10: Becomes slightly more Dem. If Carney survived so far, he'll win here.
PA-11: A bit more Republican, but if Kanjorski retires, should stay Dem.
PA-12: Shuster might have a better chance here than in PA-9 running against whoever takes Murtha's seat. Against a Dem he might be favored. Against a Republican in the primary it'd come down to areas' turnout.
PA-13: Ah, this old classic. Is now more Montco based, so Schwartz is fine.
PA-14: Little change, safe Dem.
PA-15: Now contains Stroudsburg, but Charlie Dent likely still wins.
PA-16: Safe GOP, Pitts wins easily.
PA-17: Condensed a bit more but loses the bit of Reading, Holden should win easily but not so safe if he leaves.
PA-18: Now finally has a sane shape. I don't know the exact partisan breakdown, but Murphy is much more likely to lose, as the current PA-12 was designed to take in all the Dem areas to keep him safe.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

First of all, that map is inane.

Elaborate.

Secondly, if that is supposed to be a Democrat gerrymander, then epic fail.... shows that you know almost nothing about PA politics.

It's not supposed to be a Democratic gerrymander. More of a sane drawing of the districts. Any such doing so will benefit the Democrats by dissolving a horrendous Republican gerrymander. If it was supposed to be a gerrymander there are some rather obvious things passed up, such as adding more blacks to PA-7 or State College to a non-safe GOP seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

In terms of Altmire, you didn't change his district alot, but that doesn't make him "safe".

Not a huge change, but I got rid of most of Butler county. Not safe, but better for him.  

You sure as Hell didn't help Dalhkemper out, and the reason you think you did only shows why you don't get the way this state works (in terms of Altmire, Dahlkemper, or Carney).  I assume you think you threw her a bone because you put Elk County in her district, and Elk voted against Santorum, and against McCain, and most of its voters are Democrats so... there you go.  Well, in the state assembly, Elk used to be represented by an anti-establishment Democrat.  But after several terms, he became one with the establishment, and they voted against him (in his home county) in favor of a young Republican challenger (who is from the small slice of Clearfield County that only make up 1/3 of the districts population); the same year Obama won the county with 51 percent of the vote.  Elk County is like alot of Western, PA in that it is heavily populated with registered Democrats who have not voted that way since the 1980's.  They have also been suffering under terrible unemployment, which is why they voted Democrat for national offices the last two times.  The problem has not resolved, which is why they won't be voting Democrat in the next two.  They don't like national Democrats in Elk County, they only vote for them when its to send a message to the Republicans.

The future is very, very murky for all three of those people.  The first decent challenge they face, or the first major national Republican wave (which could be next year) and all three of them could be knocked off... though in the alignment, Dahlkemper has the best chance of hanging on... at least until the next alignment.

Also, by sucking alot of Venango, Warren and McKean into Dahlkempers district, you basically gave her one of the biggest teabagger constituencies imaginable.  Those are the most conservative areas of that part of the state.  CD-3 was actually fashioned the way it was, not to make the district more conservative for English, but to make it more moderate for English.  He would have faced constant primary challenges from the right has they given him an east-west oriented district.  That's God's Country up there.

The goal was to remove Butler county. Those other counties are small, and Warren barely voted for McCain anyway. They are not as much of a problem as Butler is.

Okay, finally, on to the point of what is wrong with the map (as opposed to your analysis of what happens with this map), should I start with CD-5

A bit of a gerrymander perhaps, but note I didn't even try to remove State College. Really I just had to put Butler somewhere, and it doesn't fit anywhere in that area (the ideal place would be a seat running from south of Pittsburgh around the eastern edge)

or the fact that even without the zoomed in views I can tell that you cut a bunch of municipalities in half... and not just in the urban areas, you split the town of Indiana literally down the middle?

I made it kind of quickly. At least I united Reading*.

Your district encompassing Pittsburgh also makes very little socio-political sense, even though you probably think it doesn't look much different from the current model.

It's not much different from the current district, I just expanded it a bit. Any maps I've tried have shown that MN-05 will have to take in some areas after 2010 that don't have much socio-economic similarity and probably won't like being a part of it. Doesn't matter because they'll still be outvoted.

*Did I ever mention that I love Reading and consider it fucking AWESOME? It's fucking CHEAP as hell and is yet full of strip clubs and scene kids and venues. Plus also close to the venues in the Lehigh valley and Philadelphia. The place is perfect and if I was born in PA I'd move there in a heartbeat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course Altmire also could just as easily "move" to Beaver or Lawrence County anyway.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And actually looking up 2006's results, Hart won the Allegheny part of the district, but barely, 51-49. Her strongholds were the portions of Butler and Westmoreland counties, where she got over 60%. Obviously she was clobbered in the remaining parts, in Mercer Altmire won 74-26 (very small portion of course.)

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Because Nixon will be Governor until 2013 at the earliest, Missouri will probably do an incumbent protection map. Skelton probably retires and his seat gets chopped, guy is so old I don't see the point in preserving him.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Republican gerrymander of Ohio, assuming it loses two districts:



Essentially the only sure districts for the Dems are the two Cleveland districts, the spindly teal district, the three-pronged eastern district (in a coup, I managed to put Space, Ryan, *and* Wilson all in the same district) and the pink district.

That green district in the middle, ugh.

I think Betty Sutton could survive fairly easily in that pink district though. Obama and even Kerry carried that district solidly.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Too bad Phil's not around, I'd like his commentary on that.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ilinois is not covered by the VRA.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I might prefer it. I haven't seen it due to the mobile site.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Ah, that is nice. Wouldn't hold up in court though I bet.