Dave's Redistricting App

[Bacon King]

Ultra-racial gerrymander of Georgia, using 2000 numbers.

Most districts are 60% white, a couple are 58% white. Nothing less than that. The peach one at the top is like 75%.

[Bacon King]

I've spent most of the day on a Texas map, with the mission to make as many Obama districts as possible. For some reason though I only used 34 districts instead of 36 so rather than fine-tune this map I'll remake one with a good number of districts.

Regardless, the map I have now has 11 districts that are Obama+5 or more, 12 districts that are Obama+4 to +1, and 11 districts that are McCain+15 or more. 23 out of 34 Obama districts is kind of crazy, even if most of them are marginal.

[Bacon King]

I've completed my 36 district democratic gerrymander of Texas. 23 districts are Obama+3 or better, 2 districts are tossups, and 11 are Republican.

I'll post pictures later.

[Bacon King]

Here's a quickly done gerrymander of the Georgia State Senate. It turns the currently 34R-22D body into probably a 28-28, though it could be as good as 31D-25R after a good year. If I re-do this I'll tidy up the south a bit, though first I'd like to make a straight-up Republican gerrymander. What are the VRA requirements for state legislature seats?

[Bacon King]

Maryland is easy to gerrymander.



Blue: Obama+10
Green: Obama+10
Purple: Obama+48
Red: Obama+31
Yellow: Obama+9
Gray: Obama+81
Grayish Blue: Obama+12
Teal: Obama+12

Thinking about it, I could easily shore up the yellow district to O+20 by switching bits with gray, but I don't think that's not even needed. This map doesn't even look that bad, outside of the purple/blue boundary in the Baltimore area.

[Bacon King]

And now here's a GOP gerrymander of Maryland! Under good conditions, anyway.



Blue: McCain+8
Green: McCain+11
Grayish Blue: McCain+7
Teal: McCain+8
Purple: Obama+79
Red: Obama+43
Yellow: Obama+48
Gray: Obama+79

[Bacon King]

Come on now, guys, if you're gonna gerrymander Louisiana, DO IT LIKE A MAN.

Behold! With 2000 census numbers, four black-majority districts:



(all districts +/- 750 from ideal)

green: 50% black, 47% white
yellow: 50% black, 47% white
teal: 50% black, 46% white
gray: 50% black, 41% white

blue: 86% white, 7% black
purple: 85% white, 12% black
red: 85% white, 9% black

It's such a horrible monstrosity of a map, I love it. I challenge anyone to beat this!

[Bacon King]

I'm assuming it is, yes, across the bay there.

Still, even if it's not, this map is still up on the computer and have been fine-tuning it as much as possible; the red connects now over land.

I've shifted the red, yellow, purple and green districts around to make the green district 51% black instead of barely at the cusp of fifty (it was actually being rounded up from something like 49.7% or so). I've also increased population equality to within 400, and in the process gave the red district that one voting precinct there to make it look better.

I'll post the updated map if you're interested but the changes are basically the yellow district shoring up its black margins by giving away the white bits of Shrevport in exchange for grabbing racially mixed rural precincts across the north, yellow giving up part of its territory in Rapides to green (with purple snaking through with a single precinct space between), some minor swaps across the purple/green border, and red swallowing up the rest of Vernon and Allan from purple. Also the better-connected red in the south.

[Bacon King]

Here's a four black majority district Louisiana, done much better I think.



Yellow, green, gray and red are all 50% black. Blue, purple, and teal are each 84-88% white.

This wouldn't even be a horrible looking map if gray and green weren't so stringy.

[Bacon King]

This wouldn't even be a horrible looking map if gray and green weren't so stringy.

Use microthreads to connect areas.  They could be a millimeter wide and run along the edges of precincts.  You can define them as having no persons living in them.

Now that would make it TOO easy

btw, 2008 data for these districts.

green: 50443 population deviation; 51% black
yellow: 5063 population deviation; 51% black
gray: 16214 population deviation; 52% black

red: -164256 population deviation; 47% white, 42% black, 7% hispanic

blue: 12600 population deviation; 84% white
purple: 24063 population deviation; 82% white
teal: 55871 populationd deviation; 85% white

Basically, the only district that at this point would have radically altered demographics is the New Orleans area one, so while it couldn't be anymore considered a max racial gerrymander you could still consider it a maxed partisan gerrymander, as most white voters in Orleans parish are fairly Democratic.

[Bacon King]

A ten-district Arizona, based on 2010 estimates, with three Hispanic-majority districts. Maximum population deviation in the map is 650 though with minimal border-tinkering I could probably get it down to about 200. My goals here were to create the third VRA district, preserve the Navajo County split while making it not look like a ridiculous gerrymander, keep district boundaries roughly similar to the pre-existing ones, and to in general make the districts look as smooth as possible.

Here's the Phoenix area in detail:



and here's the specifics of the racial breakdowns (any group >3% listed)

1st: 61% White, 19% Native, 17% Hispanic
2nd: 72% White, 17% Hispanic, 6% Native
3rd: 72% White, 19% Hispanic, 4% Native
4th: 53% Hispanic, 35% White, 6% Black
5th: 82% White, 11% Hispanic
6th: 71% White, 21% Hispanic
7th: 57% Hispanic, 34% White, 4% Native
8th: 70% White, 21% Hispanic
9th: 56% Hispanic, 30% White, 8% Black
10th: 58% White, 28% Hispanic, 5% Black, 4% Asian, 4% Native

All in all, not that bad of a map I think. I have no idea what the partisan breakdown would be though. Anybody know?

[Bacon King]

4th, 7th, 9th: Democratic. Giffords would hold the 8th. Republicans would probably back the 7th without much difficulty though Mitchell could possibly hold it for a while (though he's from Tempe, so he might choose to stand in the 9th/10th instead?). 1st: Kilpatrick would hold it. 2nd, 3rd, 6th: Republican holds. 10th: My best guess would give it a slight Democratic lean but I'm not really sure.

So, 6D-4R?

[Bacon King]

Here's a nine district Arizona. All districts accurate to within 200 of ideal; total deviation between the most and least populous districts is 348. I preserved the 1st-2nd district split as best I could in the north. I don't know the specific reasons for the design, but I kept all Native-majority precincts up there in the district they'd been in before (except the two needed to keep CD 2 contiguous).



Detail of the Phoenix area.

First District (Blue): 48% White, 26% Hispanic, 20% Native.
A "coalition" district like Verily was talking about earlier. I preserved the split between the first and second districts as best I could. In the south I added Cociche County and most of Tucson. Safe Dem.

Second District (Green): 78% White, 14% Hispanic.
The connection to the Navajo County reservation is now contiguous, but still allows the rest of the surrounding area to be in the same district. Some changes, but not too many. Safe GOP.

Third District (Purple): 82% White, 11% Hispanic.
This district got pushed up and over a bit to make room for the new district, and in the process became whiter and more suburban. Safe GOP.

Fourth District (Red): 51% Hispanic, 38% White, 6% Black.
The first Hispanic-majority VRA district. I had to push it somewhat into the western suburbs to make room for CD9, but this district should still be Safe Dem.

Fifth District (Yellow): 53% White, 35% Hispanic, 4% Black, 4% Asian.
Condensed and centered around Tempe. Made demographically much safer for the incumbent. Safe Dem.

Sixth District (Teal): 77% White, 15% Hispanic, 4% Asian
Switched some territory with the 5th CD so they'd both be better holds for their respective parties. Safe GOP.

Seventh District (Gray): 51% Hispanic, 38% White, 5% Native.
The second Hispanic-majority VRA district. Lost white parts of La Paz, gained Hispanic parts of Pinal as well as territory from the old 8th CD south of Tucson. Safe Dem.

Eigth District (Light Purple): 75% White, 17% Hispanic.
The most radically changed district; still holds most of the white areas of Tucson but lost everything south of that in order to expand north to fill the east Phoenix metro area. Safe GOP.

Ninth District (Cyan): 51% Hispanic, 36% White, 7% Black.
The third Hispanic-majority VRA district, consisting of most of the eastern part of the old CD 4. It also takes some Hispanic areas out of the old CD 3. Safe Dem.

Appearance-wise, I think this map is decent but could be a bit better. Coconino/Navajo counties are atrocious, of course, but I'm operating under the assumption that there's some specific need for that design. The split of La Paz County seems kind of funny. The 9th District looks a bit odd. The 4th District looks funny extending so far south. I don't like how the 6th District slinks around the 5th. The 1st District in Tucson looks funny but I couldn't make it look more natural due to population equality issues. Also, the 8th district as a whole looks too stretched out to me. But anyway.

Without really intending to, I made this district a pro-incumbent gerrymander (which basically becomes a Democratic gerrmander when you consider that the 1st and 5th are both marginal seats, and that the new district will definitely be Democratic as well). Also I don't know much about politics in the 8th district but the incumbent might have trouble with so much new terrain. So I suppose this design is more of a Democratic gerrymander than anything else.

Maybe I'm being a bit too critical of my own work but I think this design could be done a lot better, I just don't see how. Opinions?

[Bacon King]

How many State House seats won by McCain can you squeeze out of Rhode Island? (They have 75 total). I haven't managed more than two. I'm not sure if more than two is possible.

A McCain State Senate seat seems impossible...

How do you get partisan data for RI?

[Bacon King]

Here's a fun challenge. The Mississippi State Senate has 52 districts. How many can you make black-majority? I just made 29 black-majority districts using 2000 numbers, but I think if I do it more efficiently I can get a 30th district in there.

[Bacon King]

A Democratic gerrymander of Georgia! Partially inspired by the 2000-2004 map.



1st (deep blue): Safe GOP. [72% white, 21% black]
2nd (dark green): Safe DEM. [47% white, 46% black]
3rd (purple): Safe GOP. [79% white, 15% black]
4th (red): Safe/Strong lean DEM. [41% black, 41% white, 12% hispanic]
5th (yellow): Safe/strong lean DEM. [46% white, 40% black]
6th (teal): Safe GOP. [79% white]
7th (gray): lean DEM. [44% white, 24% hispanic, 21% black]
8th (bluish one in the middle): Strong lean DEM [55% white, 39% black]
9th (light blue in the north): Safe GOP [88% white]
10th (pink): Safe GOP [79% white, 12% black]
11th (light green): lean DEM. [48% white, 32% black, 16% hispanic]
12th (the eastern bluish one): Strong lean DEM [50% white, 42% black]
13th (peach/salmon): Safe DEM [51% black, 37% white]
14th (brown): Strong lean DEM [49% white, 43% black]

nine out of fourteen districts democratic!

[Bacon King]

I wouldn't be so sure. A black majority district without an incumbent (the 13th), one black plurality district with an incumbent black representative (Johnson in the 4th), and three white plurality districts that would be assuredly represented by black politicians (Bishop in the 2nd, Lewis in the 5th, and Scott in the 14th).

[Bacon King]

Neat! Here's the four McCain district MD I did a while back

And now here's a GOP gerrymander of Maryland! Under good conditions, anyway.



Blue: McCain+8
Green: McCain+11
Grayish Blue: McCain+7
Teal: McCain+8
Purple: Obama+79
Red: Obama+43
Yellow: Obama+48
Gray: Obama+79

[Bacon King]

Lol, I don't know, but I'm assuming gray and purple are pretty strongly majority black.

[Bacon King]

A Democratic gerrymander of Georgia! Partially inspired by the 2000-2004 map.



1st (deep blue): Safe GOP. [72% white, 21% black]
2nd (dark green): Safe DEM. [47% white, 46% black]
3rd (purple): Safe GOP. [79% white, 15% black]
4th (red): Safe/Strong lean DEM. [41% black, 41% white, 12% hispanic]
5th (yellow): Safe/strong lean DEM. [46% white, 40% black]
6th (teal): Safe GOP. [79% white]
7th (gray): lean DEM. [44% white, 24% hispanic, 21% black]
8th (bluish one in the middle): Strong lean DEM [55% white, 39% black]
9th (light blue in the north): Safe GOP [88% white]
10th (pink): Safe GOP [79% white, 12% black]
11th (light green): lean DEM. [48% white, 32% black, 16% hispanic]
12th (the eastern bluish one): Strong lean DEM [50% white, 42% black]
13th (peach/salmon): Safe DEM [51% black, 37% white]
14th (brown): Strong lean DEM [49% white, 43% black]

nine out of fourteen districts democratic!

Uh, the 11th, 7th, 8th, and 12th in that map would all Lean Republican.

7th:  Hall county Hispanics are either Strongly Republican or don't vote at all, given as that county voted 75% Republican, and Western Gwinnet county is swing territory at best for the Democrats.

8th:  The Southeastern portion of  this district is staunchly Republican, enough to more than offset any Democratic lean in the Macon part of the district.

11th: Any district based in Cobb county suburbs is going to be unwinnable for the Democrats, even more so with those tendres extending up into overwhelmingly Republican NW Georgia.

12th:  A Republican won a district with almost that exact shape a few years ago, so it's certainly not a safe district for the democrats by any stretch of the imagination.

7th: Hall County voted 75% for McCain, yes, but almost all of the remotely Democratic areas of the County are in this district- including parts of Gainesville that were >90% Obama. Four of Hall's five commissioners are elected from districts, and a Democrat holds the only district contained entirely within the 7th district on this map. A better gerrymander would have been "stringier", and cut more of the rural white southern portion of the county, but I don't think that's really necessary here. And regarding the Gwinnett, portion of the district, it's better territory for Democrats than you think. Gwinnett only voted 54.5% McCain, and the most Republican parts of the county are in the eastern half. Note that four of the eight Gwinnett State Representative districts in the 7th here are Democratic; there's only one other Democratic State Rep in the county. This isn't a district that a Democrat would have a guaranteed win in, no, but once won was elected the incumbency would be enough to keep him/her in.

8th: Marshall wouldn't have any problem holding this district. His pre-2006 district was more Republican than this, and he carried 63% of the vote in 2004.

11th: If you notice, the district is based in the inner Cobb suburbs which are pretty Democratic (Cobb only gave McCain 54% of the vote; and the most Republican parts of the county are in the 3rd, 6th, or diluted into the 5th). The tendrils go to Rome and Dalton to pick up minority populations there, to fill up the population requirements of the district without sticking to 95% white super-Republican precincts. Note that the Rome area of the district has a Democratic State Representative, even. Not quite overwhelmingly Republican. Also note that the district includes part of the extremely Democratic Atlanta city proper.

12th: Barrow wouldn't have any problem holding it. He holds his current district fine enough (66% in 2008), and the district in my map would be much safer for him. Also, the only reason Max Burns won this district in 2002 was because the Democratic candidate had huge ethical problems. Athens + Augusta + Savannah = a Democratic district, especially with the white portions of Savannah excised like they are in this map.

Still, you've got me intrigued about my 7th district here, if I have time later I'll add up precinct totals to see what the Obama/McCain vote would have been.

[Bacon King]

State SoS website.

[Bacon King]

State SoS website.

How do you add up the data so quickly? There are thousands of total precincts in Georgia.

lol, personally, I don't do it quickly. I added up the hundred or so Gwinnett precincts last night by hand, and it took me about an hour. I think there is a quick way using excel sheets and such but I don't know how to do that.

[Bacon King]

Does anyone know how many California districts are VRA-protected for African Americans? (9th, 33rd, 35th, and 37th).  None are black plurality, let alone black majority districts, but they reliably elect African American congressmen in a state with a not-insignificant African American population.

None of them.

[Bacon King]

The New Hampshire townships are probably on there just for having less than 50% of the voting age population participate in one of the 1960 or 1964 Presidential elections, which I know is why the California counties are covered.

[Bacon King]

CD's 6 and 8 both look gerrymandered there.