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Author Topic: Dave's Redistricting App  (Read 307637 times)
Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« on: June 09, 2009, 11:48:01 PM »
« edited: June 10, 2009, 10:09:56 AM by Torie »

Brittain33 the law is a mess in this area, a total mess, and therefore the precedents (which your characterization thereof strikes me as more or less correct  but I am not sure), are more fragile than is typically the case in SCOTUS jurisprudence in my little opinion, for what it is worth.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #1 on: January 16, 2010, 07:07:07 PM »

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #2 on: January 16, 2010, 09:30:56 PM »

If the courts draw the lines in Mass, because in 2010 the Pubbies get more than one third of the seats in one of the houses of the legislature, and a GOP governor is elected, causing a deadlock, what would a non partisan map look like that comports with the law, and would that cause any seat to have a GOP lean, or close to it?  Just curious.

I think nonpartisan maps often tend to be incumebent-protection maps, so it is unlikely that one district will have a Republican lean.

That obtains more for federal court maps (least change principle), than state court maps (which can be anything, and are often more partisan). The matter of how these map drawing get into federal or  state courts in one of those great riddles within the mystery of an enigma or something.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #3 on: January 16, 2010, 09:59:07 PM »

The Red Mass Group's FAQ says the red areas are where Kerry Healey or Healey plus Christy Mihos had more votes than Deval Patrick in the 2006 gubernatorial election.


Thanks. Based on that, it would seem that a modified version of MA-10 should be close. The area in MA-05 looks promising, except for the large population in Lowell and Lawrence.

Your map does not have a CD 10. Maybe what you meant, is that Mass Pubbies would be competitive in Atlantis. Tongue I assume the old CD 10 is based on the Cape, no? That might be trending GOP a bit now, since the gays by and large have moved on now from Provincetown.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #4 on: May 19, 2010, 04:51:21 PM »

And to think I never noticed this toy before. Hmmm. Smiley
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #5 on: June 11, 2010, 08:23:40 PM »

The erose lines of CD 3 look a bit embarrassing, Muon2. Are you embarrassed?  Smiley
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #6 on: June 17, 2010, 01:00:03 PM »

Muon2, what are the pvi's of your Colorado CD 3 and CD 4?  The rest of the districts look pretty lopsided from a partisan standpoint. Well maybe CD 7 is close. What is the pvi of that one?  Thanks.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #7 on: August 15, 2010, 01:55:11 PM »

Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #8 on: August 16, 2010, 09:20:28 AM »

Nice maps sbane. Too bad if the redistricting initiative passes (I can't imagine that it will not), it all will be totally illegal. Tongue  Plus, even if it does not pass, Governor Whitman would veto it. Smiley

Hmm, I don't see what's so wrong with my gerrymandering at all, besides not being visually pleasing enough for Xahar. I mean a district that includes both Long Beach and Compton makes a lot of sense doesn't it? Of course it also contains Seal Beach and Cypress. Tongue Or the district that joins Sunny hills in Fullerton to Huntington park. There's a lot of epic gerrymandering in there. I'm particularly fond of the central valley districts. I didn't know 3 Hispanic districts could be created there.

3 Hispanics won't be elected though in the central valley. The most Hispanic county in California, Tulare, votes GOP like clockwork.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #9 on: August 20, 2010, 12:43:00 PM »

If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #10 on: August 20, 2010, 02:37:44 PM »

It seems to me, without knowing for sure, because I have not crunched the numbers, that it is better and safer for the GOP to pack as many Dems as possible into one Franklin County district, and then they will have a much easier time making everything else around reasonably safe for them (as opposed to some pathetic PVI +2 kind of junk - we want PVI +4 at least, with +6 being even better). If it done right, the Dems get two Cleveland area seats (it may have to be three to keep the risk down of having to worry about a couple of marginal seats), one Youngstown seat, and the Toledo seat, the Columbus seat, and that is it. 10 or 11 pretty safe seats out of 16, is not a bad day's work.

Does that make sense?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #11 on: August 20, 2010, 09:50:54 PM »

If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?

Well, if they're going to do that, they might as well draw a 2nd Black-Majority district stretching from Cincinnati to Dayton to Columbus.  You can draw a decent finger District that's about 55% black that way, and it will guarantee Republicans safe Districts in all of Central and Southern Ohio.

That kind of district would be illegal under the SCOTUS "Goldilocks" rule. It is too cold to not create a minority majority district in the face of hostile block voting where one can create a nice district that reflects a community of interest, but it is too hot to create some erose monster that appends a bunch of black neighborhoods in several distant metro areas, connected by a snake a mile wide. SCOTUS tossed out just such a district for Mr. Watt in NC, that picked up the black neighborhoods of Charlotte, than snaked over to Raleigh/Durham to do the same, then moved on to Goldsboro (or whatever that town is), and then on to Winston Salem, or some such thing. Getting too hot is a bridge too far, and getting too cold is a missed bridge within convenient commuting distance that must be crossed. Tepidity is the loadstar.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #12 on: August 20, 2010, 11:50:15 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2010, 12:13:13 AM by Torie »

The one I was speaking of, before SCOTUS tossed it out I think in 2001, makes what you put up a perfect circle.

But I take your point. Was this district challenged in court? I ask, because if you had put that puppy up, and asked if it were legal (saying disingenuously that this is a district I made up and used Dave's software to do it, with a screen face that would not tip me off instantly where you got it, so it would be tough for me to know it was a setup), and I said clearly illegal, and then you put up what you just put it, not only would I be "owned," but it would be Comedy Goldmine material.

May you cry over your missed opportunity, to cut a major Torie artery (jk dude, I cannot recall any post where either of us ever tried to put the other down, except maybe gently in jest, something for the forum to think about). Tongue

Maybe the "Goldilocks rule" has a codicil that says snakes are OK, as long as they are reasonably fat. So now if only we knew the formula, which has something to do with length, county lines, maybe topography (I won't get into that now), and some mean regression of square miles with distance, with square mialage towards the "center" given exponential weight. Do you want to take on the project of constructing this formula BRTD?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #13 on: August 21, 2010, 12:05:00 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2010, 12:13:57 PM by Torie »

The one I was speaking of, before SCOTUS tossed it out I think in 2001, makes what you put up a perfect circle.
North Carolina 1990s redistricting plans.

Maps of CD 6 and CD 12 from the 1992 redistricting are particularly interesting.

Also note that the 1998 plan was used in 1998, and the 1997 plan in 2000.

Yes, most interesting, and I think it would be hard to argue that SCOTUS law on all of this is anything other than a total mess.  To predict what they will do next would be rather foolish. It may depend on what planet in the universe Kennedy is exploring at the moment in his never ending journey of self exploration.

However Kennedy voted to strike down the 1997 plan; it was Justice O'Connor who flipped her vote from striking down the 1992 plan, to upholding the 1997 plan.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #14 on: August 21, 2010, 07:35:30 PM »

What are the PVI's of CD 13 and 15, Muon2, do you think?  I am particularly interested in the Bush 2004 percentages. In this part of the country, I am not sure Obama reflects a normalized political balance. They look a bit tepid to me, and more like marginal seats. We don't like marginal seats for this little partisan endeavor. (This is not meant to be some kind of good government exercise; it is meant to be a contact sport with the Dems the losers, and the only rule is that it needs to pass SCOTUS muster. Other than that, we cheat like hell.)

In short, we need more of a firewall.  I suspect both may need some selected Columbus burb stuff (sub and ex) put into them so the Dems are not tempted to seriously contest them, even if they have something of a tailwind going for them. Do you see where I am going here?

Yes, I understand we just have to live with the NE corner thing. Pity there are not more Chagrin Fallses to put in there (nice and rich and WASP and reliably Republican).
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #15 on: September 06, 2010, 09:48:51 AM »
« Edited: September 06, 2010, 09:50:45 AM by Torie »

Critz probably could win that PA-12 seat, it's hardly a Republican seat so much as an anti-Obama one. Kerry probably got at least around 45% there.

Unfortunately for Critz, he lives in Johnstown, which is split between PA-3 and PA-9. And there's no way he could win PA-12 anyway.


I'm working on a Republican map but have run into difficulty creating only 3 Obama seats in SE PA. It may be impossible.

It is. Don't bother trying. If you have just 3 Dem seats in the Philly area, you will have two more marginal seats, unless this year's snap back to the GOP of middle to upper middle class suburban and exurban voters in big metro areas north of the Mason Dixon line, holds for the future.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #16 on: September 07, 2010, 01:01:50 PM »

My perception Sbane is that it is VAP driven, not who votes driven. I think the SCOTUS decision written by Kennedy, bouncing the Bonilla district in and around San Antonio (because the district was only over 50% Hispanic based on total population, not VAP population), is the germaine one here. So if the Hispanic VAP percentage is over 50%, you should be OK from a federal voting rights law standpoint.

However, from a political standpoint, etc., the commission drawing the lines will be aware of what it takes to elect Hispanics, and will draw districts that way, at least to the extent it is reasonable to do so, does not step on the toes of others too much, and they comport with the compactness, community of interest, municipal and county lines, etc., aspects of the law.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #17 on: September 07, 2010, 09:35:14 PM »

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Is there a SCOTUS case that clearly says that Muon2?  Just asking.

And what does candidate of their choice mean - the chap whom at least 50% + 1 of Hispanics vote for?  That seems kind of hard to effect. How does one know? Is there any case law on what the definition of "candidate of their choice" means?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #18 on: September 07, 2010, 09:36:57 PM »

Tom DeLay already tried that loophole with heavily Republican districts with non-voting Hispanics, and it got shot down by a federal court, hence why Ciro Rodriguez is back in Congress. Safe to say the Obama DOJ won't be more lenient.

Really it would take a rather vile gerrymander not to draw at least one new district in South Texas that is supermajority Hispanic.

I know the Bonilla case turned on VAP versus population. The Bonilla district was based on population (barely over 50% Hispanic) and not VAP, and Kennedy said it had to be VAP. 
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2010, 11:30:58 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2010, 11:52:52 PM »

How does one know how Hispanics actually voted?  Exit polls?  Or is the game just one involving what surname seems to get elected? Has SCOTUS ruled on this notion, that if 50% +1 Hispanic VAP seems to still elect Anglos, and in particular Anglo Republicans, that further inquiry is needed?

What I'm saying is that SCOTUS has not ruled on this specific question. However, they have clearly left open the possibility that the state could find a way to make a 50% VAP district that would be drawn to favor the white candidate instead of the minority candidate. The De Grandy court has intentionally left itself the ability to rule against the state in that circumstance.

OK. So if Bonilla had won anyway, due to the remaining hyper GOP Anglo precincts remaining in that CD after being redrawn, we might have had another case! Will we have another case if Ciro loses?  Sure his opponent is Hispanic, but Ciro will get the majority of the Hispanic vote, or of the fictive Hispanic VAP vote (if they all in some alternative universe assuming citizenship voted in percentage numbers equaling the Anglos) in all events. I guess not given the place we are at on the decennial calendar. This is just so much fun, not.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #21 on: September 09, 2010, 09:12:59 PM »

As long as there is a good reason to cross a county line, it should be OK.
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2010, 03:54:32 PM »

I am getting a registry error when I try to open the redistricting application today. Is anyone else having that problem?
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2010, 03:59:56 PM »


OK. That is good news, that it is not my computer. I am a long way from IT help right now!  

CC:  Muon2
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Torie
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Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

« Reply #24 on: November 14, 2010, 09:42:29 AM »
« Edited: November 14, 2010, 09:44:25 AM by Torie »

Having struggled with the new version of the application in my exercise of packing as many Pittsburgh area Dems into one district as possible, what you have to do, is keep turning the partisan data button on and off, and be careful that you have turned off the coloring button. So you look at your district that you have colored so far, look at adjacent areas with the partisan button on, and then slowly expand your district, either with both the partisan and color button on (territory not in your district will then color, while that already within it will not), or with the partisan button off (if you have memorized the shape of the precincts that you want to append).

After you have added your next handful of precincts, if you have not already, you then turn the partisan button  off again, and make sure that you got it right, and then you repeat the process, for the next batch of precincts. Where you see the break points on the map, where say in the case of Pittsburgh, you see precincts GOP enough that you don't want them in the Dem pack CD, you put those precincts  in an adjacent district in another color, as guideposts which help channel how you are going to expand the district that you are working on.  

You really need to get good at turning off the color button, or your mouse will wreak havoc, undoing much of the work that you have already done.  It's a learning curve, no doubt about it.
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