Dave's Redistricting App (user search)
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« on: June 07, 2009, 08:53:18 PM »

I just played around with it trying to make a black-majority district in New Orleans. I had to go into Baton Rouge to do it, and even then it was only barely black-majority. Louisiana's next map is going to look interesting, to say the least.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #1 on: June 10, 2009, 06:46:31 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2009, 06:58:42 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Okay, so I can save and load files, but I can't convert them to jpgs, because I can't find the files. The supposed directory that contains them doesn't exist.

Edit: I've discovered Vista's "snipping tool", which seems to be much less cumbersome than trying to use that jpg converter thing.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #2 on: June 11, 2009, 06:40:32 AM »

4-district Iowa:



CD1 (blue) - 58.5 - 40.4 Obama
CD2 (green) - 58.0 - 40.8 Obama
CD3 (purple) - 55.0 - 43.6 Obama
CD4 (red) - 53.7 - 45.2 McCain

Basically, I ended up preserving two Democratic-leaning districts, a Republican district, and a Dem-leaning swing district. I have to say, Iowa is ridiculously easy to redistrict -- nice square lines, decentralized population, homogenous population. I don't know how strict their requirements are, but I got all the districts within the same population by a thousand or so except for the 3rd, which is 5,000 under. I also didn't take into account where any of the Congresspeople live -- Dave Loebsack lives in Linn County, apparently, so he'd have to move one county south to stay in CD2, and Tom Latham is in Story County, which put him in the 3rd with Boswell.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #3 on: June 12, 2009, 07:48:58 AM »

Minnesota with seven districts:



CD-01 - yellow (Walz and Kline put in same district)
CD-02 - red (Paulsen)
CD-03 - green (Ellison)
CD-04 - blue (McCollum and Bachmann put in same district)
CD-05 - purple (no incumbent)
CD-06 - teal (Oberstar)
CD-07 - grey (Peterson)

I do these things without knowing where the incumbents live, so I dismantled Kline's district and accidentally put him in Walz rather than Paulsen as I intended. Also, Bachmann ends up in McCollum's district, but she'd obviously move to the safe new CD-05. I haven't figured out the Obama/McCain percentages for these districts, since districts 1 through 3 have partial counties in them. Any comments from the Minnesota crowd?
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #4 on: June 13, 2009, 11:26:31 AM »

Minnesota with seven districts:
CD-01 - yellow (Walz and Kline put in same district)
CD-02 - red (Paulsen)

What's the population differential between the suburban Dakota parts of CD-01 and the rural counties of CD-02? What was the thinking behind stretching CD-01 up to the inner suburbs?

I was trying to compact CD-01 and get rid of some of the more Republican counties. I don't understand your other question.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #5 on: June 13, 2009, 04:52:05 PM »

Well, fellas, I had a pretty decent map, but its either not saving mine to my computer, or... I don't even have an alternative.  That could have been a good two hours I just wasted, there.

You have to type in a file name in the box on the left-hand side and select "save as". Your map will only come back up once you select the state it's for when you open the program. Really, this program is a perfect example of how not to design a user interface.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #6 on: June 14, 2009, 03:55:29 PM »

How different would a redistricted Virginia look compared to what it is now?



I'm hoping he adds Virginia eventually, because I'd like to take a stab at it. The exploding population in NoVa will probably make the 8th, 10th, and 11th districts shrink. I expect there will end up being a bipartisan incumbent protection map.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #7 on: June 15, 2009, 07:39:06 AM »

Ohio with 16 districts:



CD-01 (dark blue) - shored-up Democratic Cincinatti district.
CD-02 (dark green) - Cincinatti suburbs, safe Republican.
CD-03 (dark purple) - Dayton-based district that would be a 50-50 swing district.
CD-04 (dark red) - safe Republican rural district.
CD-05 (grey) - another safe Republican rural district.
CD-06 (light purple) - Dem-leaning Toledo-based district.
CD-07 (very light purple) - Dem-leaning surburban Cleveland-area district.
CD-08 (yellow-green) - west half of Cleveland, basically. Democratic district.
CD-09 (magenta) - VRA coalition district; couldn't get it to 51% black, it's about 49% black.
CD-10 (orange) - yet another Dem-leaning NE corner district.
CD-11 (pink) - Canton/Akron district. Maybe has a slight Dem lean.
CD-12 (brown) - Youngstown and Appalachia. Swing district, although Youngstown would probably give it an edge for the Dems.
CD-13 (light green) - Republican-leaning SE Ohio district.
CD-14 (forest green) - Columbus suburbs. Republican district.
CD-15 (yellow) - Columbus-based Dem district.
CD-16 (light blue) - north-central Ohio, rural Republican district.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #8 on: June 15, 2009, 08:02:50 AM »

As to who would go where:

CD-01 - Driehaus.
CD-02 - Schmidt.
CD-03 - I think a non-incumbent Dem would be elected here.
CD-04 - Turner.
CD-05 - Boehner.
CD-06 - Kaptur.
CD-07 - Sutton.
CD-08 - Kucinich.
CD-09 - Fudge.
CD-10 - LaTourette.
CD-11 - Boccieri.
CD-12 - Ryan. Wilson might challenge him here, but I doubt he could win.
CD-13 - Austria and Space would fight it out. Don't know who would come out on top.
CD-14 - Tiberi.
CD-15 - Kilroy.
CD-16 - Jordan and Latta fight for the nomination.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #9 on: June 16, 2009, 05:36:09 PM »

I have not been able to create jpg files for my maps. I save the state map from the app, and I can find it on my drive. However, the map tp jpg converter on the site can't open the file. Has anyone else encountered this, and if so what fix is there?

That's another confusing thing about this app -- you use the save on the left-hand size to save the actual map, but the save on the right side to save pictures of the map that the converter uses.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #10 on: June 17, 2009, 06:46:45 AM »

All right, well, this time I've actually taken into account where the people live. Here's Georgia with a new district:



CD-01 (red) - Jack Kingston I had to displace from his district because I needed all of Savannah for Barrow's district. It's still safe Republican, so all he needs to do is move a bit south.
CD-02 (brown) - Sanford Bishop's district is now a coalition district -- 50.5% non-white. Should be safer to hold once he retires.
CD-03 (pink) - Lynn Westmoreland remains in a pretty similar district.
CD-04 (green) - Hank Johnson's district, basically all of DeKalb County now. 51% black.
CD-05 (dark blue) - John Lewis, again, 51% black and pretty much all of the urban Fulton County district.
CD-06 (light blue) - Tom Price has a much more compact district now, but it includes enough of the ultra-Republican suburbs to remain safe.
CD-07 (light green) - Same for John Linder.
CD-08 (very light purple) - I tried to make Jim Marshall's district a little more favorable to him, but it's tough when he's just slapped down in the middle of the state. It's about 37% black.
CD-09 (light purple) - Nathan Deal remains in solidly-Republican northern Georgia.
CD-10 (teal) - Paul Broun, picking up some of the Republican counties of Barrow's district.
CD-11 (magenta) - Phil Gingrey is yet another Republican in a compressed, although Republican, district.
CD-12 (yellow) - John Barrow's district. I tried to excise some of the Republican territory and give him some more favorable counties. The district is 41% black now.
CD-13 (dark purple) - David Scott remains in the inner suburbs of Atlanta and the district remains majority (51%) black.
CD-14 (grey) - This is the new district, and it's exurban and white enough to be pretty solidly Republican.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2009, 01:20:19 PM »
« Edited: June 26, 2009, 06:40:33 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

14-district Michigan, unfortunately a little cut off:



MI-01 (dark blue) - Bart Stupak's district, mostly unchanged, although I removed some of the Republican counties.
MI-02 (magenta, formerly MI-15) - John "Methuselah" Dingell gets a slightly-expanded suburban district, taking in Lenawee County now.
MI-03 (red, includes the former MI-02) - Created by combining MI-02 and MI-03, since Hoekstra is retiring. Won by Obama (I assume Grand Rapids voted more Democratic than Kent County as a whole), but Vern Ehlers would probably be re-elected.
MI-04 (dark green) - Dave Camp's district. Safe Republican.
MI-05 (dark purple) - This is Dale Kildee's district and remains a safe Dem district consisting of Saginaw, Flint, and some surrounding territory.
MI-06 (yellow) - Made more Republican for Fred Upton.
MI-07 (teal) - Made more Democratic for Mark Schauer by including Lansing and removing some more Republican portions.
MI-08 (grey) - Safe Republican seat for Mike Rogers.
MI-09 (light purple) - Joe Knollenberg's district is more or less the same, taking in most of Oakland County.
MI-10 (brown) - Candice Miller's district is more or less unchanged, except for picking up most of Tuscola County.
MI-11 (light blue) - How to get rid of Thad McCotter? Put Ann Arbor in his district! Yes, most of Washtenaw County, won 69-29 by Obama, is now in McCotter's district.
MI-12 (light green) - Here we have Sander Levin, whose district I don't think changed a whole lot.
MI-13 (very light purple) - Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick had to pull in some parts of Conyers' district to remain majority black.
MI-14 (pink) - Conyers remains in majority-black territory as well.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #12 on: June 21, 2009, 05:17:28 PM »
« Edited: July 20, 2009, 08:09:53 AM by JohnnyLongtorso »

And here's New Jersey with 12:



My intention was to put two Republicans in one district, and the only way to do that was to eliminate one of Frelinghuysen, Garrett, and Lance, and Frelinghuysen got the axe because his home is closer to the center of the northwestern Republican strongholds, so it was easier to carve up his district between Garrett and Lance.

NJ-01 (dark blue) - Rob Andrews' district. Takes in more area, but is still solidly Democratic.
NJ-02 (dark purple) - LoBiondo's district made more Republican.
NJ-03 (dark green) - shored up John Adler by removing Ocean County and adding in Trenton instead.
NJ-04 (light blue) - Chris Smith in a district that is not much changed, except to give Trenton to Adler. It's a funny shape because (like a lot of NJ Reps) Smith lives on the western edge of the district.
NJ-05 (grey) - Scott Garrett's district takes in the Republican northern end of New Jersey.
NJ-06 (yellow) - Frank Pallone's district is probably a little more Republican now, but shouldn't be hard for him to hold.
NJ-07 (teal) - Leonard Lance and Rodney Frelinghuysen are put in the same district. The winner will hold the district, as it should be fairly Republican.
NJ-08 (light purple) - Bill Pascrell's district, still safe for the Democrats.
NJ-09 (magenta) - Steve Rothman, see above.
NJ-10 (very light purple, on the east side of NJ-08) - I couldn't get this district to be majority-black, so I had to settle on it being a coalition district. Still locked up tight for Don Payne.
NJ-11 (light green, formerly NJ-13) - Albio Sires' district, safe Dem and about 45% Latino. It's currently about 47-48%, so not much of a change there.
NJ-12 (red) - Rush Holt's district, taking in the Democratic areas of Somerset and Middlesex, and eschewing the Monmouth portion. More Democratic now.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #13 on: June 24, 2009, 05:35:42 PM »

Here's an SC gerrymander

SC-1 (blue):


SC-3 (purple):


SC-4 (red):


SC-5 (yellow):


SC-7 (gray):


Southeastern SC:


SC-2 is green, SC-6 is teal.

And stats

SC-1: 78% White, 15% Black (formerly 75/21 White)
SC-2: 68% White, 23% Black (formerly 70/26 White)
SC-3: 75% White, 19% Black (formerly 77/21 White)
SC-4: 81% White, 11% Black (formerly 76/20 White)
SC-5: 75% White, 18% Black (formerly 65/32 White)
SC-6: 56% Black, 37% White (formerly 57/41 Black)
SC-7: 54% Black, 42% White

Basically the 6th starts in Spartansburg/Greenville/Anderson and makes it's way to Columbia.

But basically the map creates a future 5/2 map on the retirement of Spratt, and it significantly weakens Spratt

...Good Lord. I think even Tom DeLay would consider that a bit excessive.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2009, 08:20:02 AM »

I'm surprised nobody's done North Carolina yet. Here it is with a theoretical 14th district (which may or may not happen this time). You may want to open it in a new window to see it better.



As you can see, I've actually de-gerrymandered it to some extent. Here's the district breakdown:

NC-01 (brown, GK Butterfield - D) - I didn't bother trying to make this majority-black; it's a coalition district. I'm sure you could finagle it to 51% black if needed; currently it's about 49% or so white. Either way, easy Dem district to hold.
NC-02 (very light purple, Bob Etheridge - D) - I'm not sure how strong this district is -- it takes in half of Wake County (Raleigh) and Republican Johnston County. Probably a tossup district now.
NC-03 (pink, Walter Jones - R) - Extends the entire coastline, but is at least more contiguous now. Safe Republican.
NC-04 (green, David Price - D) - Still safe Dem, although I changed its boundaries to include Republican Alamance County, which is overwhelmed by Chapel Hill and Durham.
NC-05 (dark purple, Virginia Foxx - R) - Safe Republican district. Didn't change much.
NC-06 (light purple, Howard Coble - R) - I excised all of Greensboro, so Coble would have to move to the suburbs (or retire, he's 79), but it's safe Republican.
NC-07 (red, Mike McIntyre - D) - This was annoying, because there's not much Democratic territory in the southernmost point of North Carolina. I kept most of his district but gave Brunswick County to Jones. Still leans Republican.
NC-08 (light blue, Larry Kissell - D) - Shifted eastwards, picking up more of Fayetteville and some Republican areas of McIntyre's district. Probably a little more Republican now.
NC-09 (yellow, Sue Myrick - R) - She'll have to move to the suburbs too, but she gets a safe district still.
NC-10 (dark green, Patrick McHenry - R) - The district shrunk but is still safe Republican.
NC-11 (dark blue, Heath Shuler - D) - Also shrunk a bit, and is maybe a little more Democratic now that it doesn't have a few of the district's easternmost counties.
NC-12 (teal, Mel Watt - D) - Controversy! I dismantled his plurality-white district that snakes from Charlotte to Winston-Salem and gave him a safe, albeit majority-white, metro Charlotte district. I'm sure it probably violates VRA, but oh well.
NC-13 (magenta, Brad Miller - D) - This one shrunk as well, but remains centered in Raleigh.
NC-14 (grey, open) - A new Democratic seat that consists of Greensboro and Winston-Salem. Thanks, Mel!
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2009, 07:19:25 PM »
« Edited: July 02, 2009, 07:44:34 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Here's a fun little gerrymander of Missouri with 8 districts:



MO-01 (green, Lacy Clay Emmanuel Cleaver - D) - Expands to all of Jackson County and part of Cass, but should still be a solidly Democratic district.
MO-02 (teal, Todd Akin - R) - Takes in Warren and Franklin Counties now and part of Pike. Probably doesn't change the lean of the district much, as it was 55% McCain before and all those counties went 55% McCain.
MO-03 (yellow, Russ Carnahan - D) - Once again expanding, taking in some swingy rural areas, but should still be lean Dem.
MO-04 (dark blue, Ike Skelton - D) - This is the fun part. I wanted to make a district that a Dem could hold after Skelton retires, and I came up with this T-shaped thing. McCain won the district by about 3,000 votes, if my math is correct, so it has a slight Republican lean, but is much friendlier territory than Skelton's old district.
MO-05 (red, Emmanuel Cleaver Lacy Clay - D) - Not much to say here, it just got a little bigger. Remains solidly Dem and about 47% black (it's 49.6% or so currently, so no VRA issues).
MO-06 (dark purple, Sam Graves - R) - I had to borrow a lot of the Kansas City area of Graves' district to help Skelton out, so now it has expanded to take up nearly half the state, geographically speaking. Probably even more Republican now.
MO-07 (grey, open/Blaine Luetkemeyer - R) - I dismantled Luetkemeyer's district and stuck him in Blunt's old district, since his successor and Luet would be the two least senior members of the House delegation. Another safe R district.
MO-08 (light purple, Jo Ann Emerson - R) - This district didn't change a whole lot.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2009, 09:30:33 AM »

I always get those two mixed up. I nearly swapped akin and graves, too. Really, the problem is that missouri has the least noteworthy house delegation of a state with more than one or two reps.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 6,798


« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2009, 09:48:33 AM »

I'd love to do virginia but it's not supported on the app.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #18 on: July 05, 2009, 05:35:47 PM »

Took another stab at Ohio, minus two districts:



OH-01 (light purple, Steve Driehaus - D) - Again, the only logical thing to do with this district is make it metro Cincinnati.
OH-02 (light blue, Jean Schmidt - R) - A Republican shouldn't lose this district; Schmidt should hold on despite the crazy factor.
OH-03 (magenta, Mike Turner - R) - Made this a swing district, with Dayton as the center of population.
OH-04 (yellowish-green, Jim Jordan - R and Pat Tiberi - R) - Safe R, but I drew it to include Jordan and Tiberi. Primary time!
OH-05 (brown, Bob Latta - R) - Fun stretchy shape because I had to have someone take up those counties in the upper middle of the state.
OH-06 (light green, Charlie Wilson - D) - Added the non-Youngstown parts of Mahoning and removed some of the southernmost counties, so it should be a little more Democratic now.
OH-07 (grey, Steve Austria - R) - This one didn't change a whole lot, and is still safe R.
OH-08 (yellow, John Boehner - R) - Another safe R district that didn't change much.
OH-09 (red, Marcy Kaptur - D) - Had to take in some swingy areas to make up for the loss in population, but should still be safe D, as it's still anchored in Toledo.
OH-10 (dark green, Dennis Kucinich - D) - Expands to include part of Lorain, but still safe for the leprechaun.
OH-11 (dark blue, Marcia Fudge - D) - I really don't think there's any way to keep this majority-black. It's a coalition district now.
OH-12 (orange, Zack Space - D) - formerly OH-18, there's not a whole lot I could do to make Space's district safer. I stretched it up to Huron to make it somewhat less Republican.
OH-13 (pink, Betty Sutton - D) - All of Summit and Portage Counties now, should still have been won by Obama by 10 or 11 points.
OH-14 (dark purple, Tim Ryan - D and Steve LaTourette - R) - The fun really starts here. Includes Ryan's base of Youngstown and LaTourette's base of Lake. I'd give Ryan a slight edge in this matchup.
OH-15 (teal, Mary Jo Kilroy - D) - Metro Columbus, an easier district for Kilroy to win.
OH-16 (very light purple, John Boccieri - D) - Another gerrymander to make Boccieri's district more Democratic.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #19 on: July 06, 2009, 05:41:19 PM »

Took another stab at Ohio, minus two districts:



OH-06 (light green, Charlie Wilson - D) - Added the non-Youngstown parts of Mahoning and removed some of the southernmost counties, so it should be a little more Democratic now.
OH-12 (orange, Zack Space - D) - formerly OH-18, there's not a whole lot I could do to make Space's district safer. I stretched it up to Huron to make it somewhat less Republican.
OH-16 (very light purple, John Boccieri - D) - Another gerrymander to make Boccieri's district more Democratic.

Wilson's current district already includes Mahoning minus Youngstown.  Also, that OH-12 would probably be the end of Zach Space.  Not that there's much you can do to shore him up, but any major constituent shift like that is going to hurt him a lot unless its all D friendly territory.  I think there's a better way to try to keep Space around but it puts Wilson in a swingy and probably R leaning district.  Here's what I cam up with after going at it again:



Incumbents, Dreihaus (Blue), Schmidt (Green), Kucinich (Pink), Fudge(Yellow-Green), Tiberi (Lilac), Sutton (Peach), Kilroy (Orange), and Boccieri (Bright Green) are all safe.

The Purple district wrapping around Dayton pits Boehner and Jordan against each other in a primary.  I wonder who would win that one?  Wink

The Yellow district has no incumbent and Jordan might be under pressure to move in there.

The Cyan district pits Kaptur against Latta rather than ensuring he won't get stomped by her.  He might opt for the Yellow district regardless of Jordan's decision.

The Dayton based Dark Purple district pits Austria against Turner and is more Dem friendly than Turner's current 3rd district but is probably still R-leaning

The Gray district is empty and Austria might move in here as it should be fairly easy for a Republican to take.

I also sent Ryan into a match with LaTourette and I agree that Ryan has the advantage on paper.

I gave the rest of Mahoning to Boccieri (Bright Green) making him pretty safe.

In the Red district I gave all of Lorain County to Space.  This should be more than enough to counterbalance the smaller R-heavy Ashland and Holmes Counties making this a naturally D-leaning district which Space should have to trouble in.

Wilson (Blue-Green) gets the shaft in my map.  His district is probably still a swing district though and Democrats are currently doing a pretty good job of holding onto economically depressed rural areas despite any slight Republican presidential leanings.

It certainly looks like one of Space or Wilson is going to be screwed in redistricting. There are just too many Democratic Reps packed into the northeastern quadrant of the state (Wilson, Space, Boccieri, Ryan, Sutton, Kucinich and Fudge) to support them all. I would rather try to save Wilson -- he seems to be a little to the left of Space, and Space has a better shot at holding a Republican district anyway (although he's been lucky to have two dud opponents so far).
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #20 on: July 10, 2009, 06:56:55 AM »

I took another shot at Minnesota, this time aiming for a 6-1 Democratic map:



MN-01 (blue, Tim Walz - D) - Took out a few Republican counties to shore up his district a bit.
MN-02 (green, Erik Paulsen - R) - Paulsen gets the safe R district here, taking in a lot of the exurbs that were in Bachmann's district.
MN-03 (purple, Betty McCollum - D and John Kline - R) - I put Kline in McCollum's district so he would either have to lose, retire, or move and challenge Bachmann or Paulsen.
MN-04 (yellow, Keith Ellison - D) - Not much changed here. Safest district in the state.
MN-05 (grey, Michele Bachmann - R) - To get rid of Bachmann I removed her base of the exurbs and put in most of the inner suburbs of the Twin Cities. Heck, it may even have been won by Obama now. A sane Republican could hold it, but probably not Bachmann.
MN-06 (red, Collin Peterson - D) - Slightly more Republican now, but safe for Peterson.
MN-07 (teal, Jim Oberstar - D) - I'm somewhat unhappy with this one, because now it has to go all the way to the Twin Cities suburbs. Probably pushes it closer to a swing district now.

Now, Minnesota people, tell me how stupid I am (again).
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #21 on: July 12, 2009, 02:46:22 PM »

I know how to get people to comment on my maps...



Less a district. I gave Kanjo the boot.

PA-01 (dark green, Bob Brady - D) - Super-safe Philly district. Yawn.
PA-02 (dark blue, Chaka Fattah - D) - See above, 51% black.
PA-03 (purple district in the NW corner, Kathy Dahlkemper - D) - Had to expand southward, but shouldn't have changed the partisan composition much, as I did remove some of the more Republican counties in the district to compensate.
PA-04 (magenta, Jason Altmire - D) - Western half of Allegheny County and its environs; probably a little more Democratic now.
PA-05 (pink, GT Thompson - R) - Safe Republican district, most of the T.
PA-06 (dark red, Jim Gerlach - R) - This is actually better for the Republicans now that it's most of Chester and all of Berks. Oh well, still 54% Obama or whatever.
PA-07 (yellow one in the SE corner, Joe Sestak - D) - All of Delaware and a bit of Chester, probably close to a safe Dem district now.
PA-08 (yellow-green in the SE corner, Patrick Murphy - D) - Chopped off the top end of Berks and put in some more of Philly. A little more Democratic now?
PA-09 (light purple, Bill Shuster - R) - Actually, this is about the same district as before. Super-safe Republican.
PA-10 (teal, Chris Carney - D) - Takes in Luzerne and Lackawanna and becomes a much more Democratic district.
PA-11 (gold one in between PA-09 and grey, formerly PA-19, Todd Russell Platts - R) - Who? This one didn't change much either. Safe Republican.
PA-12 (dark purple snake, John Murtha - D) - Okay, I had no desire to keep the Murthamander, but I didn't want to just give away a district, so I made this intersting little fellow. I was really trying to make the districts more comprehensible than the current gerrymander, but SW PA is all jacked up. Three Congressmen that live in Allegheny County? Seriously?
PA-13 (light purple in the SE, Allyson Schwarz - D) - Nearly all of Montgomery County and is pretty safe.
PA-14 (orange, Mike Doyle - D) - Most of Pittsburgh and the eastern suburbs. Also safe, I would assume.
PA-15 (brown, Charlie Dent - R) - Didn't change much, but it took the northern end of Berks from Murphy. Should still be around 56% Obama, but I'm sure Dent will hold it until he dies.
PA-16 (grey, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly unchanged, just weird at the bottom because Pitts lives in Chester, but his district is Lancaster-based.
PA-17 (light blue, Tim Holden - D) - The rest of Kanjo's district got put in with Holden to make a district that is probably around 50-50, if not a little Dem-leaning now.
PA-18 (green one in the west, Tim Murphy - R) - Yeah, I don't know why the dude lives outside of Pittsburgh. Anyway, his district is safe R.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #22 on: July 16, 2009, 06:14:13 AM »

Here's my take on Missouri. Lacy Clay's district is ever-so-slightly plurality black (by just under 2000 people).



Luetkemeyer and Graves, being freshmen, get tossed together in MO-06. MO-04 now stretches along the Missouri River to take in the similar communities along its banks instead of combining them with the ultra-rural counties surrounding them. MO-05 is a mere 21% black despite being represented by a black congressman, but he should be in no danger. MO-03 stretches out into rural-ish areas a bit but not so far as to make Carnahan vulnerable. It's also bleached down even further, losing most of its previous black-majority precincts in St. Louis City and down to a mere 4% black, hardly above the Republican districts. Overall, this map makes three safe Democratic districts (MO-01, MO-03 and MO-05), one district that would be competitive/lean Republican but has a popular Democratic incumbent (MO-04) and four safe Republican districts (MO-02, MO-06, MO-07 and MO-08).

Looks like we had pretty similar intentions:

Here's a fun little gerrymander of Missouri with 8 districts:


Graves is not a freshman, however; whoever replaces Blunt will be, which is why I put Luetkemeyer in that district.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #23 on: July 18, 2009, 06:47:34 AM »

Here's my take on Washington with ten districts. This map *may* actually be 8-2, which is not what I intended; I'm not sure whether the changes make Reichert more or less safe. (His district is obviously WA-07 on this map.) WA-04 is also competitive, although not extremely so (the parts of Yakima in it are all very Native American and thus Democratic).



For fun:

WA-01: Spokane
WA-02: Bellingham, Wenatchee and the Islands
WA-03: Yakima, Walla Walla and the Tri-Cities
WA-04: Vancouver and the Columbia Gorge
WA-05: Olympia and the Olympics
WA-06: Tacoma and Olympia East
WA-07: Renton
WA-08: Seattle Center
WA-09: Everett and Shoreline
WA-10: Bellevue and Seattle North

If Reichert's district has a higher proportion of Pierce to King now (which I think it does, it looks so), he's safer. He won King 51-49 in 2008 but Pierce 59-41.
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JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2009, 11:25:26 AM »

Democratic gerrymander of Louisiana:



I've created a map that could theoretically go 4-2 Dem, although it could always just go 6-0 Republican. Though I doubt Cassidy could survive his district being turned into a majority-minority one.

LA-01 (red, Steve Scalise - R) - Still an uber-safe white district.
LA-02 (teal, Joseph Cao - R) - This becomes a plurality-white district (45% white, 43% black, 6% Hispanic, 2% Asian), so Cao would have a shot at re-election here (assuming he were to win in 2010).
LA-03 (green, Charles Boustany - R) - Boustany's district shifts east and takes in a lot of counties that would be favorable to a Melancon-like Democrat.
LA-04 (yellow, John Fleming - R) - Those little tendrils to the south and east make this district 52% white and 42% black. Would make it tougher for Fleming to hold.
LA-05 (purple, Rodney Alexander - R) - Loses nearly half its black population and becomes safer for the Republicans.
LA-06 (blue, Bill Cassidy - R) - Apparently a majority-black district outside of New Orleans in possible. 51% black, 43% white.
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