Joe Cooper
Rookie
Posts: 16
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« Reply #2 on: October 22, 2009, 03:59:48 AM » |
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cd 01 blue
likely d. Napa, Mendocino, Humboldt strong d, but you include some very high r areas inland, with relatively low population
cd02, green.Yolo, with UC Davis is rabidly Democratic. Butte County swing. The rest is rabidly R. Rs outnumber d lean r
cd03 Sacramento. Probably d, depending on where exactly the lines are drawn
cd04 reed Republican
cd05 yellow overwhelmingly d.
cd06 marin. solid d.
cd 07 grey solid democratic. If you expand north, instead of going into Contar Costa County, you will make more d voters from Contra costa available for San Joaquin, which will need them. Solano has 2/3 of the population, and combined with UC Davis in Yolo county could take in almost any R territory north of it. The way you have it, it is taking in some the the most democratic territory in the nation in western contra costa county. then western contra costa county could take in the suburban areas[lean d] of cd 10 to the east of it. cd 4, which is heavily R could take some of the r areas of cd 11, which we just took away from the Rs 3 years ago with some difficulty. Also, if you give Solano county the area in Sacramento county you gave San Joaquin, Garimendi, who will be elected on November 3, 2009, will be able to live in his district.
cd08 San Francisco. No republican has a ghost of a chance. Independents outnumber republicans by a wide margin.
cd09 light blue. solid d
cd10. contra costa pink solid d
cd11 San Joaquin. tossup. needs some d voters from contra costa
cd 12 San Mateo. solid d
cd 13 Alameda democratic
cd 14 Santa Cruz, San Mateo. dem
cd 15 Santa Clara democratic. Once the figures from 2010 are available, a majority Asian district or a majority hispanic district could be drawn in Santa Clara county.
cd 16 Santa Clara democratic
cd 17 Monterey democratic
cd 18 yellow not too sure, but might be a tossup or lean r
cd 19 east of 18. republican
cd20 kings, Fresno republican. parts of the district have 40% unemployment because their water has been cut off. An alternative would be to give Fresno a district all its own, which is almost the exact size. you cut it up into little pieces. But then 19 would have to acquire all the desert that is light brown now, Tulare would get kings, and Kern would have a district wholly within the county.
cd 21 Tulare republican. solid. Another district with exceptional high unemployment. The water shut down affects the entire San Joaquin valley- San Joaquin county to Kern county. This area is the bread basket of the nation, so expect higher food prices.
cd 22. Kern and the desert republican.
City of Fresno would qualify for a district all of its own.
cd 23. south west coast light blue solid d
cd 24 inland of 23 solid republican.
i am inclined to think that if San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara is combined in one district, you will have a likely d district. Ventura would be lean or likely r, but improving.
northern Los Angeles and Ventura county: this area has shown explosive growth. Any district based on Dave's figures would be illusive.
most of the population figures for central Los Angeles county would overestimate the actual population.
minor: why do you include the one channel island in cd 24 to San Luis Obispo and inland Ventura. Connect it to cd23, which you have on the coast of Ventura. I know it has, effectively, no population but it looks weird.
northern Santa Clara county. cd 14, San Mateo, Alameda county connected to each other by some swamps and salt ponds.
Go ahead and give the eastern part of Santa Clara county in 16 to cd17. both are rural areas and you're already in Santa Clara county with cd17. somewhere like 500 people would be affected. most of it is state parkland or owned by the City of San Francisco for the Hetch Hetchy project. And the rest is ranchland.
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