Dave's Redistricting App

[Dgov]

A Democratic gerrymander of Georgia! Partially inspired by the 2000-2004 map.



1st (deep blue): Safe GOP. [72% white, 21% black]
2nd (dark green): Safe DEM. [47% white, 46% black]
3rd (purple): Safe GOP. [79% white, 15% black]
4th (red): Safe/Strong lean DEM. [41% black, 41% white, 12% hispanic]
5th (yellow): Safe/strong lean DEM. [46% white, 40% black]
6th (teal): Safe GOP. [79% white]
7th (gray): lean DEM. [44% white, 24% hispanic, 21% black]
8th (bluish one in the middle): Strong lean DEM [55% white, 39% black]
9th (light blue in the north): Safe GOP [88% white]
10th (pink): Safe GOP [79% white, 12% black]
11th (light green): lean DEM. [48% white, 32% black, 16% hispanic]
12th (the eastern bluish one): Strong lean DEM [50% white, 42% black]
13th (peach/salmon): Safe DEM [51% black, 37% white]
14th (brown): Strong lean DEM [49% white, 43% black]

nine out of fourteen districts democratic!

Uh, the 11th, 7th, 8th, and 12th in that map would all Lean Republican.

7th:  Hall county Hispanics are either Strongly Republican or don't vote at all, given as that county voted 75% Republican, and Western Gwinnet county is swing territory at best for the Democrats.

8th:  The Southeastern portion of  this district is staunchly Republican, enough to more than offset any Democratic lean in the Macon part of the district.

11th: Any district based in Cobb county suburbs is going to be unwinnable for the Democrats, even more so with those tendres extending up into overwhelmingly Republican NW Georgia.

12th:  A Republican won a district with almost that exact shape a few years ago, so it's certainly not a safe district for the democrats by any stretch of the imagination.

[Dgov]

Just so you know, the D+XX and R +XX numbers refer to how much above the national average Presidential candidates got in that district.  So in a district that went 63% for Obama, the rating would be D + 10.

a D + 76 District would mean Obama got roughly 129% there, which sounds about right for a North Korean election, but not an American one.

[Dgov]

Nah, it's possible with 14 districts to draw another black majority one in the Atlanta metro, and the federal government will make them do it. They might try harder to get rid of the central/south Georgia Dems, though.

Not really.  I was having trouble drawing 3 Black-majority districts in the Atlanta Area, let alone another one (Atlanta has interestingly enough, been getting whiter over the last decade).  The new district will probably cover some portion of the Atlanta Suburbs or Exurbs.

As for the Central/Southern Dems, there are a couple of ways to get rid of them.  The GOP could go the simple route and just draw Republican-leaning districts in the area (taking off a little strength from the Exurbs, you can make all 4/5 Downstate districts at least Lean Republican), or they can go the complicated route and draw another majority-black district from all the major cities there.  It would be highly messy, but I've been able to get one about 60% Black before (though it cuts from Albany to Macon to Savannah, so it might get challenged in court) that draws Sanford Bishop into it, making the whole rest of the region Solidly Republican and securing a relatively Conservative vote in the safe Democratic district.  The demographics of Georgia would make an argument for this type of district at least reasonable given that Black comprise just under a third of Georgia's population, despite there only being 2 Black-Majority districts in the state.

[Dgov]

For a rep NC, try swinging the 4th all the way West to Forysth County and Winston-Salem, giving the Black part of Raleigh to the 1st, Drawing the rest of the Democratic part of Raliegh into the 2nd, and swinging that one down to take the Democratic parts of the 7th and 8th.  Then swing the 12th west to take the Democratic parts of Asheboro.  I think you can get a pretty solid 9-4 Gerrymander that way

[Dgov]

Here's an Interesting Challenge for some people on this site.  See how Many Hispanic-Majority, Republican-leaning Districts you can draw in Texas.  Districts have to be at least 55% Hispanic and 55% McCain 2008.

So far I've been able to get 3 relatively decent (i.e. no ugly Gerrymandering) ones, in West Texas (Laredo/Odessa), Corpus Christi/South Texas, and Houston Areas.

[Dgov]

How many hispanic districts does the VRA require in California?

We only have about 10 I think.  Though from pure percentages we should have around 15-18, mostly because they're either highly concentrated in Los Angeles County (were we have a couple that are over 70% Hispanic), or scattered across the rest of the state in too small of a concentration to actually form a Hispanic-majority district.

[Dgov]

If the GOP is going to draw the lines in Ohio, they would be well advised to throw in the towel on Columbus, and give the Dems a district there. Otherwise, they risk having two Dem Columbus based seats at some point. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered. Did you consider that Muon2?

Well, if they're going to do that, they might as well draw a 2nd Black-Majority district stretching from Cincinnati to Dayton to Columbus.  You can draw a decent finger District that's about 55% black that way, and it will guarantee Republicans safe Districts in all of Central and Southern Ohio.

[Dgov]

The one I was speaking of, before SCOTUS tossed it out I think in 2001, makes what you put up a perfect circle.

But I take your point. Was this district challenged in court? I ask, because if you had put that puppy up, and asked if it were legal (saying disingenuously that this is a district I made up and used Dave's software to do it, with a screen face that would not tip me off instantly where you got it, so it would be tough for me to know it was a setup), and I said clearly illegal, and then you put up what you just put it, not only would I be "owned," but it would be Comedy Goldmine material.

May you cry over your missed opportunity, to cut a major Torie artery.

Maybe the "Goldilocks rule" has a codicil that says snakes are OK, as long as they are reasonably fat. So now if only we knew the formula, which has something to do with length, county lines, maybe topography (I won't get into that now), and some mean regression of square miles with distance, with square mialage towards the "center" given exponential weight. Do you want to take on the project of constructing this formula BRTD?

Well, to do what you're suggesting, you'd have to take the 2nd Moment of Inertia of the 2-D Topographical region along a moving center line (Think REALLY HARD CALCULUS).  Or, you could create a defined ratio of area to perimeter, and say that no district can drop below this value.

[Dgov]

So where does everyone see the four new seats in Texas? I ended up with one Hispanic majority one in South Texas, one in suburban Houston, and two in the metroplex, one around Ft. Worth and one in suburban Dallas. Republicans btw might have a bit of dilemma in Houston and the metroplex where drawing the new seat safe GOP might force minorities into another one and endanger it. Actually the seat I drew in suburban Dallas was still only 48% white though with Hispanic turnout so low it probably would elect a Republican.

Also Chet Edwards might be able to breathe a sigh of relief, the new district should push the Dallas suburbs out of his.

Well, When I do a Republican gerrymander of Texas, I usually create one in between Austin and San Antonio, a minority-majority one in Dallas, one in Suburban Houston, and one in the rural areas between Houston and San Antonio.  It gives me about a 27-9 spread, and is fully VRA complaint.

The trick is you have to draw Hispanic-majority but Republican-leaning districts, which is much easier than it sounds if you know where to try.  If you take the current 29th, draw a line between the two "Claws" (you'll see what I mean) and extend it sweeping outwards through Pasadena and Baytown, you can get a district that's 60% Hispanic and 55% McCain with some fine tuning.  The trick is just to draw a Black-majority district that looks like a reverse question mark around it, which winds up like 60% Black and 91% Obama.

You can get another through gerrymandering South Texas and Corpus Christi, but it's usually only like 52% McCain, but probably still winnable for Republicans.

And Finally you can draw one from Odessa/Midland to Laredo and wind up with a district that's 60% McCain and 60% Hispanic.

I'd give you maps, but I'm currently trying to upload my 10-3 Republican gerrymander of North Carolina.

[Dgov]

The trick is you have to draw Hispanic-majority but Republican-leaning districts, which is much easier than it sounds if you know where to try.

I'm curious how you define that as "fully VRA compliant." A district where there is a Hispanic majority, but your intent is for them to be outvoted by the Anglo minority in a polarized election with low Hispanic turnout, is not VRA compliant because the community does not get to elect "the candidate of their choice."

Well then, if The Democrats lose TX-23 to a candidate that won more of the white vote than the Hispanic vote, does that mean it no longer counts as a VRA district because a majority of Hispanics didn't vote for their current representative even if he himself is Hispanic?  What about my TX-29, where a White Democrat representing a Hispanic-majority district would be replaced (presumably) by a Hispanic Republican?

[Dgov]

Wow.  You're telling me, it would violate the VRA to create a theoretical district that consists solely of Bexar county, Because despite being a Hispanic-majority district, a Republican might win it without winning the Hispanic vote?  That doesn't make any sense.  TX-15, TX-23, TX-27, and TX-28 all voted for Bush despite being Hispanic-majority because Bush won the small white populations in each district by more than Kerry won the Hispanic.  By the rules you give, none of those districts would be eligible for VRA certification, as in each a small white population can out-vote the Majority Hispanic population to flip the districts.

[Dgov]

Nope. The 27th kept Nueces County and is still 64% Hispanic.

Which you created by fajita-stripping (or more fajita-stripping to be precise) the 15th district, that is even worse than the 15th that Delay originally drew.  It stretches from McAllen to the Houston Metro area--you don't get much uglier than that.  In a fair map, I usually just cut out the rural central Texas/San Antonio parts of the 27th, 15th, and 28th, and make them each like 90% Hispanic.

I'm also curious as to whether or not creating minority-majority districts where they are not VRA required would be struck down.  Making a 60% Black one in Houston makes the rest of Harris county more than 55% Republican, but it's not very compact (not really ugly, like IL-17 or something, but kind of long and sweeping).

[Dgov]

Okay, I think I just found the Holy Grail of Redistricting--The Black Plurality, Republican-voting District.  In Georgia, using a 14-district plan with the new Population estimates, make a district that contains Clayton, Henry, Rockdale, and Newton counties, and part of Spalding county.  The result is a district that is 46% black to 41% White, and Voted for Bush by a few thousand votes in 2004 according to this map:

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Not that this would actually be useful to Republicans in the future, as this part of Georgia was probably the Biggest swing towards Obama of any region in the country, as it would have gone to him with somewhere close to 65% of the vote, but still.  Are the South Atlanta Suburbs famous for Black Republicans or something?

[Dgov]

Actually I just had a similar thought to muon, what about South Carolina? 7x0.3=2.1. Blacks would be "entitled" to a second seat with one gained. Anyone drawn an SC map with two majority black districts?

Some really ugly ones.  You have to dive into NC-1 levels of district drawing to get two districts like that in South Carolina, as the Black Voters aren't all that concentrated outside of the black belt, and even then there are still pockets of whites.

[Dgov]

Does anyone know how many California districts are VRA-protected for African Americans? (9th, 33rd, 35th, and 37th).  None are black plurality, let alone black majority districts, but they reliably elect African American congressmen in a state with a not-insignificant African American population.

[Dgov]

CD's 6 and 8 both look gerrymandered there.

The 6th for sure, the 8th not really.  It covers both Tacoma and Olympia pretty nicely.  If that one big Grey block if moved to the 8th it would look better.

[Dgov]

Just finished Nebraska with new census numbers. Pretty proud of myself for finding every precinct and getting the three districts within 100 people of each other, as well as only one split county.



Note: I couldn't fit it all on, but just in case you didn't know, everything missing on the left is in CD-03.

Did you try splitting no counties? If so how close could you get? I'm always curious as to how well the IA model would work in other states.

It works surprisingly well in some states where you wouldn't expect it, Like Tennessee (assuming an exception is made for the Shelby county by putting all of Memphis in one district).

[Dgov]

Just finished Nebraska with new census numbers. Pretty proud of myself for finding every precinct and getting the three districts within 100 people of each other, as well as only one split county.



Note: I couldn't fit it all on, but just in case you didn't know, everything missing on the left is in CD-03.

Did you try splitting no counties? If so how close could you get? I'm always curious as to how well the IA model would work in other states.

It works surprisingly well in some states where you wouldn't expect it, Like Tennessee (assuming an exception is made for the Shelby county by putting all of Memphis in one district).

Aren't the counties around Nashville too populous to get a district of 100 persons deviation without splits?

I Said "Suprisingly well" not perfect.  You can get within like 20k, which is great considering that all those counties have like 200,000 people in them

[Dgov]

Are any of the following possible?

- McCain district in New England (I'm guessing only NH is possible)
- McCain district in New York City excluding Staten Island
- Obama, white non-Hispanic majority district in Texas, Arizona, or New Mexico
- Obama district in West Virginia
- Obama Hispanic district in Florida

I remember SSP had a map of Massachusetts with 2 McCain Districts, though those were ugly and only barely McCain.  Also, I'm pretty sure you can draw at least one in Connecticut (Northern Fairfield county and then some white suburbs around the state)

Yeah, it's easy to draw one in South Brooklyn.  You can actually draw a district with like 150,000 people in it that voted 80% McCain (Hasidic Jews vote very Republican)

As for Arizona, you probably can draw a white, Obama district just by drawing one in the city of Tuscon.  Also, one going from Tempe stretching around the Democratic parts of Phoenix might work as well, though in both cases its just Highly Democratic Hispanics out-voting the Marginally Republican whites.

As for West Virginia, I doubt it.  his best county was Boone, with 54% of the Vote, and there's no county in WV big enough where you might be able to draw an Obama-leaning part out of it.

[Dgov]

Who determines the Precinct Boundries in each state?  Is it the legislature?

[Dgov]

The Texas numbers are off.  I seriously Doubt that Houston and Dallas have changed that much in a decade--it looks like someone drew random digits on a color-by-numbers.  There's a ton of 90% Hispanic precincts next to 90% Black next to 90% White ones, so the numbering system is probably off there, and i seriously doubt University park is now Majority-Black while Western Ft. Worth is Majority WHite.