Dave's Redistricting App

[Smash255]

For fun, here's a detailed breakdown on a Democratic gerrymander for New York (eliminating Pete King while keeping all Democrats safe-ish and solidifying holds on the marginal upstate seats).

NY-01 (Suffolk Outer): 53% Obama, 47% McCain
NY-02 (Suffolk Inner): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-03 (Nassau North and Suffolk North): 54% Obama, 45% McCain
NY-04 (Nassau South): 56% Obama, 44% McCain
NY-05 (Queens Southeast and Nassau Central): 76% Obama, 24% McCain; 50% black

The final district is the key to this gerrymander; the very Republican areas of central Nassau County get combined with the black areas of Jamaica, Laurelton and other parts of Southeast Queens, which far outvote them in NY-05 and leave the rest of the Long Island districts at or above Obama's national numbers. King probably could survive in NY-03 (it's not possible to draw the districts in such a way as to guarantee his defeat), but he would be much more vulnerable.

Hard to tell exactly where some of the town borders are on here, and you don't have to live in the district to run in it, but you probably don't want to have Dems run in districts they do not live in or in districts with other Democrats.  It appears you have McCarthy in the same district as Meeks, though possibly in the same district as Ackerman (depending on where exactly the community borders are.  McCarthy lives in Mineola, which is a marginal area in central nassau, just to the north of heavily Republican Garden City.  Meeks lives in heavily Democratic Far Rockaway in SE Queens, Ackerman in heavily Democratic Roslyn Estates (NW Nassau)  In this map King would actually be in NY-4, he lives in Seaford (SE Nassau).

 

[Smash255]

I was about to start my own map for NY, but the data for the 08 Presidential race does not seem to be loading.  Anyone know if that data is down or if I need to click something in order for it to work?

[Smash255]

Smash,

Have you clicked the "test data" box before you select New York from the drop down menu?

Ahh I was hitting the test data box after I selected New York, not before.  Working now, thanks.

[Smash255]

I'd like to see if it's possible to create an Obama district in Arkansas.

A district in Pulaski and Jefferson counties combined with some counties in east-central Arkansas would get one.

[Smash255]

Here's my attempt to gerrymander Colorado for the GOP.

Ok, I now have time to explain this.



CO-4: Takes up the eastern part of the state. The conservative and relatively populous Mesa county balances out the ski counties. Lean GOP.

Looks like someone doesn't know east from west

[Smash255]

OK, here is my 28 district New York. 19 districts voted for Obama, 9 voted for McCain (in bold). In real life, it was 25 for Obama and 4 for McCain (in italic).



Long Island districts (Suffolk and Nassau Counties):



NY-1: Obama 49%, McCain 51%
NY-2: Obama 60%, McCain 40%
NY-3: Obama 47%, McCain 52%
NY-4: Obama 53%, McCain 47%
NY-5: Obama 73%, McCain 27%

New York City districts (Queens, Kings, Richmond, New York and Bronx Counties):



NY-6: Obama 89%, McCain 11%
NY-7: Obama 79%, McCain 20%
NY-8: Obama 80%, McCain 20%
NY-9: Obama 46%, McCain 53%
NY-10: Obama 93%, McCain 7%
NY-11: Obama 93%, McCain 6%
NY-12: Obama 82%, McCain 17%
NY-13: Obama 48%, McCain 51%
NY-14: Obama 82%, McCain 17%
NY-15: Obama 91%, McCain 9%
NY-16: Obama 95%, McCain 5%
NY-17: Obama 69%, McCain 30%

For the remaining districts, see the main map.

NY-18: Obama 58%, McCain 41%
NY-19: Obama 53%, McCain 45%
NY-20: Obama 58%, McCain 41%
NY-21: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
NY-22: Obama 49%, McCain 49% (McCain wins by less than 1%)
NY-23: Obama 59%, McCain 39%
NY-24: Obama 60%, McCain 39%
NY-25: Obama 48%, McCain 50%
NY-26: Obama 69%, McCain 30%
NY-27: Obama 46%, McCain 52%
NY-28 (currently NY-29): Obama 49%, McCain 50%

Well good thing the chance for a GOP gerrymander is basically zilch.

[Smash255]

I wanted to make a map for Mississippi with two black-majority seats and ended up with this chaotic monster. The blue district is 53% black (to 43% white) and the green district is 54% black (to 43% white). Unknowingly it looks like I've moved every incumbent (other than Bennie Thompson) into a unwinnable spot, as Travis Childers is stuck in the purple district and Gene Taylor is mired in the red district. It's bad for Gregg Harper too, as he's in the blue district. Could any of those guys survive this map?

The designs in Panola, Tallahatchie and Winston are quite interesting, what you have going on in Walthill might take the cake though.

[Smash255]

How do I find out how my re-distrciuted district voted Obama or McCain?

Only NY and Maryland have that data.

[Smash255]

I too am working on North Carolina currently, now that they have the partisan data. While voting on the 1st district I noted a majority-black precinct in eastern Greene county that actually voted for McCain.

Maury precinct, 51% black, 42% white, 6% Hispanic, voted for McCain 51-49

Could have some Mississippi type white vote for Obama combined with lower black turnout in that precinct or blacks trending a bit younger.

You also have this

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.doc.state.nc.us/dop/prisons/greene.htm

[Smash255]

Here's a Republican map of Pennsylvania, losing a district from the current map. Tried not to overreach too much; concentrated on protecting incumbents and watering down a couple of districts, rather than trying to maximize Republican seats.



Click for bigger.

PA-01 (blue Philly district, Bob Brady - D) - Expands to take in more of Delaware County, uber-safe for the Dems.
PA-02 (green Philly district, Chaka Fattah - D) - Mostly unchanged; still majority-black. Obviously uber-safe.
PA-03 (purple NW corner district, Kathy Dahlkemper - D) - Pushes east instead of south, taking in some heavily-Republican counties. Should make the district more Republican.
PA-04 (red SW district, Jason Altmire - D) - Takes in all of the Dem-leaning areas outside of Pittsburgh. Should be safe for Altmire.
PA-05 (orange central district, Glenn Thompson - R) - Takes in a bunch of the Philly suburbs in Westmoreland County instead of the NW counties, which shouldn't change the partisan balance much.
PA-06 (teal SE PA district, Jim Gerlach - R) - Tried to make this district as safe as possible, so it takes in all the Republican parts of Montgomery and Bucks now. Should be a Republican-leaning district now.
PA-07 (grey SE PA district, open) - Pushed west in order to make it less Democratic. Still a swing district, but should be more favorable to the Republicans.
PA-08 (purple SE PA district, Patrick Murphy - D) - Takes in all the Dem parts of Bucks, and parts of Montgomery and Philadelphia. Safe Dem seat.
PA-09 (light blue SW PA district, Bud Shuster - R and Mark Critz - D) - Swallows parts of Critz's district, which tilts the district from "overwhelmingly Republican" to just "very Republican". Shuster would prevail in a matchup with Critz.
PA-10 (magenta NE PA district, Chris Carney - D) - Carney's district is completely reconfigured as a safe Dem district, taking in all of Lackawanna along with Bethlehem, Scranton, and part of Allentown.
PA-11 (green NE PA district, Paul Kanjorski - D) - Turns Kanjo's district (since he's probably going to lose to Barletta) into a pretty Republican one. Shouldn't be hard for Barletta to hold in 2012.
PA-12 (light purple SE PA district, Todd Platts - R) - Takes in Harrisburg, which makes the district a little less Republican, but it shouldn't be hard for Republicans to hold.
PA-13 (pink SE PA district, Alyson Schwartz - D) - Heavily-Democratic MontCo-based district.
PA-14 (brown SW PA district, Mike Doyle - D) - Heavily-Democratic Pittsburgh district.
PA-15 (orange NE PA district, Charlie Dent - R) - With Bethlehem and most of Allentown gone, the district picks up some Republican-leaning counties that should make it easier for Dent to hold.
PA-16 (green SE PA district, Joe Pitts - R) - Mostly Lancaster County, takes in some Dem parts of Berks and Chester, but should remain Republican-leaning.
PA-17 (dark purple SE PA district, Tim Holden - D) - Getting rid of Tim Holden requires chopping up Schuylkill County, and also removes Harrisburg. Should be even more Republican now.
PA-18 (yellow SW PA district, Tim Murphy - R) - Takes in a bunch of Republican-leaning parts of SW PA. Maybe a little less Republican, but still Republican. Republican!

This reminds me a lot of what IL did in 2001 when the districts were designed for incumbent protection with one seat lost. If that's the case, I would expect that the loser is the one who lacks political support, happened to Phelps in IL. Is Critz the most likely loser? How much will it depend on the Gov next year?

Thats part of it, but it also depends on population factors.  Its very hard for the lost seat to come from anywhere other than western PA.  The Philly proper districts have lost the most population, but the surrounding areas have generally gained the most, so that basically cancels each other out and makes it difficult to cut a district there.  The Appalachia areas in western PA have been bleeding population.

[Smash255]

What is the population of the center area?  Maybe you can create a donut?

I was curious about that as well, so I tested it. The center area would form most of a district, but there would have to be a little bit on the outside. Some of the precincts are rather inconveniently shaped; I can't get population equality for the center district without splitting a precinct or forcing a neighboring district to go outside of Philly. Even if the outer district remains entirely within Philly, it would have to be extended along the northern and western edges of the McCain district and include a small area to the south as well.

I just did it quickly, so could have missed one of them, but the population seemed short by about 6,000.