The election predictions also ignore the fact that the GOP is splintering.
Many Republicans are still opposing Sotomayor even though George H.W. Bush and Laura Bush gave the thumbs up for Sotomayor.
Indeed, Arizonan, the GOP is starting to splinter around the Sotomayor nomination. Never has there been such an explosive issue for the Republican Party. This could lead not only to an extended stay in the electoral wilderness, but possibly the collapse of the Republican Party. Sotomayor's nomination is to the Republican Party what slavery was for the Whigs.