This is a scary map if your a GOP strategist!
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  This is a scary map if your a GOP strategist!
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Author Topic: This is a scary map if your a GOP strategist!  (Read 7138 times)
pogo stick
JewishConservative
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« Reply #25 on: June 29, 2009, 03:04:05 PM »

I will cast my first vote in 2016. Because I'll be 17 in 2012. Cuz i have al ate birthday Sad My birthday is 20 days after election day SadSad
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Citizen James
James42
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E: -3.87, S: -2.78

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« Reply #26 on: June 29, 2009, 03:42:09 PM »

The thing most Democrats and left-leaners on this forum seem to forget is that demographic trends don't last forever. About 100 years ago, Republicans had the lock on the black vote while the Democrats had southern social conservatives.

That's because parties change.  A century ago, the Republicans were the liberals/progressives and the Democrats were the social conservatives.  Things flipped in the '60s with Johnson's great society program and civil rights legislation along with Nixon's Southern strategy.

However, I agree with the main point that demographics do change over time.  Patrick may have a point on ebb and flow, though I still believe that at least as far as semi-recent history goes (the past few centuries) the overall trend has been toward liberalization.  (and a mea culpa on using the term liberal when I meant conservative - good catch)
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Vepres
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2009, 05:59:09 PM »

The thing most Democrats and left-leaners on this forum seem to forget is that demographic trends don't last forever. About 100 years ago, Republicans had the lock on the black vote while the Democrats had southern social conservatives.

That's because parties change.  A century ago, the Republicans were the liberals/progressives and the Democrats were the social conservatives.  Things flipped in the '60s with Johnson's great society program and civil rights legislation along with Nixon's Southern strategy.

However, I agree with the main point that demographics do change over time.  Patrick may have a point on ebb and flow, though I still believe that at least as far as semi-recent history goes (the past few centuries) the overall trend has been toward liberalization.  (and a mea culpa on using the term liberal when I meant conservative - good catch)

Socially, yes. However, fiscally, no. Obama looks like a pragmatic moderate next to FDR or Johnson.
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DS0816
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« Reply #28 on: June 29, 2009, 09:15:57 PM »
« Edited: June 29, 2009, 10:26:51 PM by DS0816 »

You may find this interesting: According to Chuck Todd's book, How Barack Obama Won, here was the 2004/2008 shift/swing in all 50 states (plus District of Columbia) specifically for the 18-29 voting group…

(States that flipped from 2004 Republican George W. Bush to 2008 Democrat Barack Obama are highlighted in bold. Due to split results, Nebraska appears in italic.)

The States…
Alabama • D+17
Alaska • R+2
Arizona • D+6
Arkansas • R+4
California • D+34
Colorado • [No info]
Connecticut • D+20
Delaware • D+37
District of Columbia • D+8
Florida • D+7
Georgia • D+2
Hawaii • D+42
Idaho • D+5
Illinois • D+15
Indiana • D+23
Iowa • D+18
Kansas • D+15
Kentucky • D+12
Louisiana • D+7
Maine • D+35
Maryland • D+17
Massachusetts • D+12
Michigan • D+27
Minnesota • D+15
Mississippi • R+13
Missouri • D+12
Montana • D+33
Nebraska • D+33
Nevada • D+22
New Hampshire • D+10
New Jersey • D+7
New Mexico • D+45
New York • D+8
North Carolina • D+35
North Dakota • D+40
Ohio • D+11
Oklahoma • D+4
Oregon • [No info]
Pennsylvania • D+9
Rhode Island • D+5
South Carolina • D+14
South Dakota • D+14
Tennessee • D+19
Texas • D+27
Utah • D+30
Vermont • D+19
Virginia • D+31
Washington • [No info]
West Virginia • R+9
Wisconsin • D+13
Wyoming • D+21
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2009, 12:30:49 AM »
« Edited: July 02, 2009, 01:54:55 AM by pbrower2a »



Key: Kerry and Obama wins, Obama gains:

Near-black: +15 or more
Deep red:   +10 to  +14.9
Red:            +5   to +9.9
Pink:            under +5


Obama pick-ups:


Dark green:        +15 or more
Green:               +10 to +14.9
Light  green:             +5 to 9.9


(I'm guessing on NE-02, which flipped)

Kerry and Obama both lost:

(White):       Obama gain +0 - 5%
Light Blue:     Obama gain +5-9.9%
Blue: Obama gain 10 - 14.99
Deep blue: Obama gain +15 or greater

Yellow: Obama loss 0-5% (compared to Kerry)
Brown: Obama loss  10% or more  (compared to Kerry)


(Districts that voted with their states at large in Maine and Nebraska are gray).


Note: Obama did not win by a lesser percentage than did Kerry in any state that he won.  Gaps in the key indicate changes that did not happen.



 

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