Will California, Washington or Oregon ever vote Republican?

[Ogre Mage]

At the Presidential level, CA and WA are Democratic base states.  OR not so much. 

To have a chance of winning in WA, the GOP would have to nominate the type of Republican that their base is at present not willing to consider.  If the Democratic nominee is a weak candidate, a moderate Republican would have a decent chance.

A fairly conservative economic message could work here if it is focused on free trade and pro-business combined with a center-right platform on taxes.  However, the candidate would need to recognize government's role in providing services to people.  A candidate who comes off as taking a hatchet to government services is probably not headed to victory.  A George W. Bush like environmental record would also be a problematic hurdle.  A candidate savvy about transportation issues is a plus.

On social issues, the GOP is really out of sync with WA state.  Any anti-abortion candidate is starting at a significant handicap, although it could be overcome under certain circumstances.  An attempt to portray the "homosexual lifestyle" as a threat to family values will only result in the candidate looking like a bigot to the majority of WA voters. 

[Ogre Mage]

Slade Gorton's method of carrying the state is how it has to be done today: Carry suburbia by big margins along with all counties outside King, which is very tough.

Gorton's electoral strategy was to run against King County and while he was hated there, he won with strong support from the business community, the suburbs and Eastern Washington.  For many years this worked.  But the population of King County continued to swell and suburbia began to grow increasing uncomfortable with Gorton's positions on social policy.  In 2000, the Democrats nominated Maria Cantwell, a wealthy, relatively pro-business, socially liberal candidate.  She cracked into just enough of Gorton's support while maintaining the Democratic base.  Indian tribes and environmental groups were two parts of the Democratic base which especially hated Gorton and Cantwell lobbied hard for them during the campaign and as a senator.