Will California, Washington or Oregon ever vote Republican?

[Vepres]

At the Presidential level, CA and WA are Democratic base states.  OR not so much. 

To have a chance of winning in WA, the GOP would have to nominate the type of Republican that their base is at present not willing to consider.  If the Democratic nominee is a weak candidate, a moderate Republican would have a decent chance.

A fairly conservative economic message could work here if it is focused on free trade and pro-business combined with a center-right platform on taxes.  However, the candidate would need to recognize government's role in providing services to people.  A candidate who comes off as taking a hatchet to government services is probably not headed to victory.  A George W. Bush like environmental record would also be a problematic hurdle.  A candidate savvy about transportation issues is a plus.

On social issues, the GOP is really out of sync with WA state.  Any anti-abortion candidate is starting at a significant handicap, although it could be overcome under certain circumstances. 

I would add that a simple change in immigration rhetoric propels them to only -10 in CA (see 2004).

[Vepres]

If the GOP runs an Olympia Snowe/Giuliani/Mark Kirk type in WA state, they can win, but of course we never will because we're either not smart enough or just too stubborn to open ourselves to moderate candidates.

Gorton's defeat in 2000 was also due to that 3rd party candidate that sapped up about 3% and that made the difference.  In that exit poll, most of those were republican votes.

Now now, don't be so negative.

Anyway, I think a libertarian-ish/moderate Republican can win Oregon, and be competitive in Washington. He/she would appeal more to the Seattle/Portland suburbs, helping them significantly.