Canadian federal polling division files

[Hatman 🍁]

We've been noticed by the Pundits' Guide! Muy bien, amigos.

I just checked that out. Very cool. It would be awesome if the Pundit's Guide could have maps like this on their site.

[the506]

Here are the Regina ridings. Can you tell which one is Ralph Goodale's?

[Hatman 🍁]

You could probably gerrymander an NDP riding into there somewhere.

[minionofmidas]

You could probably gerrymander an NDP riding into there somewhere.

And you wouldn't have to head out to Moose Jaw or any reservation.

[the506]

Saskatoon:

[Hash]

Except Rosetown-Biggar, the urban precincts from Saskatoon aren't extremely NDP... fair share of Tory polls too (though much lesser margins than the rural polls!)

Ditto Regina.

[Kevinstat]

Here are the Regina ridings. Can you tell which one is Ralph Goodale's?

Why is much of southeast Regina plurality Liberal?

[Hash]

Here are the Regina ridings. Can you tell which one is Ralph Goodale's?

Why is much of southeast Regina plurality Liberal?

It's Ralph Goodale's seat.

[Kevinstat]

Oh, of course.  So he probably has a personal vote and also benefits from NDP strategic voting.  Was SE Regina more pro-Liberal than the rest of the city proper before he was elected in 1997, though?

[Hatman 🍁]

Except Rosetown-Biggar, the urban precincts from Saskatoon aren't extremely NDP... fair share of Tory polls too (though much lesser margins than the rural polls!)

Ditto Regina.

This is true. It's probably because of the Liberals. Provincially, all those areas are quite NDP friendly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Oh, of course.  So he probably has a personal vote and also benefits from NDP strategic voting.  Was SE Regina more pro-Liberal than the rest of the city proper before he was elected in 1997, though?

The riding was created in 1988. It was a 3-way race in the 1988 election (PC-NDP-Liberals) and then Liberal since 1993. Before that it was part of Regina East, which voted NDP.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Except Rosetown-Biggar, the urban precincts from Saskatoon aren't extremely NDP... fair share of Tory polls too (though much lesser margins than the rural polls!)

Ditto Regina.

I'd have to say that Nettie Wiebe apart, the NDP didn't make a big deal of running active campaigns in S-W, S-H and Blackstrap. If the NDP made a bigger song and dance and put in actual resources on the ground, then you might see the city polls flip next time around. There's a definite opportunity for the NDP in S-H especially. Trost isn't invulnerable, especially if he keeps makes snafus as he has done of late.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Looking at the Saskatoon/Regina ridings: If I was NDP (which I am), I would take heart in the fact that rural polls aren't totally off the table in Saskatoon/Regina, especially Regina. Regina-Qu'Appelle looks distinctly interesting for the NDP, while Palliser has definite possibilities. Goodale has his seat for life, but when he retires, interesting things may well happen.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Remember in S-H, there was a three-way pileup not too long ago. If the NDP started running a viable candidate there, and could enthuse enough closet-NDPers to get out and vote, while also persuading the soft-core Liberals there to join forces with them, Trost could well have a closer race next time.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Kudos to everyone here for creating the maps! It's absolutely fascinating looking at them!

For my own neck of the woods: a request for the Etobicoke ridings, please? I know it's Liberal central overall, but I'm guessing that at least in E-C and E N, the Tories will have put in some heavy dents in that rosy glow. Even in the Liberal citadel of Lakeshore, I'd be willing to guess that a few polls went the Tories' way.

Apologies for the post-bombing. I've been stalking this thread for a few days, and only just got my log-in approval.

[minionofmidas]

Welcome. -_-

[Hash]

Degemer mat an Atlasia!

[rzandee]

thanks for all who have been posting maps.  as an IT luddite, I was wondering if anyone could clue me in on how to write script to fill in the polling divisions.

thanks

[the506]

Winnipeg:



EC actually says a First Nations Party candidate won a poll in Winnipeg Centre with 46 votes to Pat Martin's 3...yeah right. It's probably a repeat of that time in 2000 when the networks showed the Marxists-Leninists leading one of the Mississauga seats for a while.

[minionofmidas]

Where is that on the map?

[edmundcjoconnor]

Wow, another polarised city! Winnipeg's perhaps the only major city in the country where it's split three-ways relatively evenly. That said, the Liberals' hold on south Winnipeg is tenuous, as W-S-C shows the Tories ran them hard all over the riding. If they bolster their support there, and can shuffle some troops/resources out to Saint Boniface, they could take their second Winnipeg seat, and spare a few blushes on election night (it's not good enough to rely on the cult of Goodale to save you from a whipping in the Prairies).

For the Tories, it's consolidating their hold in Saint Boniface, and building their base in W-S-C.

The NDP's hold on central Winnipeg is well-established, but the converse of that is that they've got only Kildonan-St. Paul as a likely target. They'll need to increase their lead in Elmwood-Transcona to make a surer thing of it next time.

[Hatman 🍁]

St. John's would be interesting now. Maybe Halifax-Dartmouth as well. Hamilton would be interesting, Windsor, London, Sudbury, Thunder Bay, and of course Calgary and Edmonton, and Victoria.

[edmundcjoconnor]

St. John's would be interesting now.

Although I don't know if a deep enough orange exists for St. John's East …

[Hatman 🍁]

As for that FN poll, unless it is some sort of First Nations complex, it was an error. They definitely switched their votes with the NDP.

St. John's would be interesting now.

Although I don't know if a deep enough orange exists for St. John's East …

Haha. I think he is using the same colour for all 60%+ areas, but I could be wrong. The NDP won every poll in St John's East, except for a mobile poll which wont show up on the map.

Ooh, I'd also love to see some more northern areas

[Hash]

St. John's would be interesting now.

Although I don't know if a deep enough orange exists for St. John's East …

A better one would be for St. John's South-Mount Pearl and of course, Avalon. I'm interested in which communities stayed Conservative this time 'round and which swung Liberal.