Canadian federal polling division files
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Author Topic: Canadian federal polling division files  (Read 166981 times)
Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #175 on: July 18, 2009, 10:43:15 AM »

Why is Bowen Island so liberal? Makes little sense from what the wiki has to say about how it is now - you can guess from the article that it is latte liberal, but are left wondering why.

Probably the same reason the Gulf Islands area.

Also, maybe NDP-Green vote splitting?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #176 on: July 18, 2009, 10:48:32 AM »

Why is Bowen Island so liberal? Makes little sense from what the wiki has to say about how it is now - you can guess from the article that it is latte liberal, but are left wondering why.

Probably the same reason the Gulf Islands area.

Also, maybe NDP-Green vote splitting?

NDP did poorly on Bowen Island. Greens did well, second place in one poll.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #177 on: July 19, 2009, 04:57:47 AM »

Why is Bowen Island so liberal? Makes little sense from what the wiki has to say about how it is now - you can guess from the article that it is latte liberal, but are left wondering why.

Probably the same reason the Gulf Islands area.
Which are what, Conservatives don't use ferries to commute?
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edmundcjoconnor
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« Reply #178 on: July 19, 2009, 08:11:35 AM »

Oshawa, please? I remember seeing a Toronto Star poll-by-poll map from 2006, and I think it'll be the definition of polarized in 2008.
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the506
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« Reply #179 on: July 21, 2009, 01:42:57 PM »

More of the lower mainland:

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Verily
Cuivienen
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« Reply #180 on: July 21, 2009, 01:57:10 PM »
« Edited: July 21, 2009, 02:00:24 PM by Verily »

Newton--North Delta is really interesting. And really polarized. And the strategic voting boundary along Surrey North is really obvious.

Also, is that a Green poll in Vancouver North? I mean, yeah, they beat the NDP there, but they still only got 11%. Of course, there's an NDP poll in Vancouver North as well, and they got only 9%.
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Kevinstat
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« Reply #181 on: July 21, 2009, 09:17:53 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2009, 05:13:18 PM by Kevinstat »

The Conservatives swept (won all the polls in) a riding in Quebec (Beauce)!  That riding, like all currently Conservative-held ridings in Quebec except Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean which they picked up more in a by-election in September 2007, wasn't even held by the Tories going into the 2006 election (and they might have swept it in that election as well, as their candidate got 67.02% that year but "only" 62.40% in 2008), although the BQ vote went down from 19.97% to 14.00% so they might have won a poll in the previous election.

Neither the NDP or the Liberals swept any ridings (although the506's Excel file on the number of polls carried by each party in each riding has or had the Liberals sweeping one riding in Quebec).  The Bloc Québécois swept two ridings, Montcalm and Rivière-du-Nord.  All other poll sweeps were Conservative sweeps, two in Ontario (where they also won all polls except one where they tied with the Liberals in one riding, Carleton-Mississippi Mills), two in British Columbia and eight in... take a wild guess. Smiley

[Edited to correct the misstatement that the Liberals had swept Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel, QC.]
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Хahar 🤔
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« Reply #182 on: July 22, 2009, 12:30:21 AM »

As everyone knows, Maxime Bernier eats babies. Hence, Beauce loves him.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #183 on: July 22, 2009, 08:32:22 AM »

Surrey needs to be divided differently.
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« Reply #184 on: July 22, 2009, 08:41:47 AM »

The Conservatives swept (won all the polls in) a riding in Quebec (Beauce)!

Beauce is very conservative, it's practically the Utah/Idaho of Quebec, or maybe Oklahoma since Utah and Idaho probably have a higher IQ than Beaucerons do on average. Maxime Bernier is the son of a longtime PC MP in the '80's and '90's and since it's a rural riding, those things count a lot, even if Maxime Bernier has the IQ of a fly. Maybe I'm insulting flies. Apologies.

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The map has one poll for the Bloc, though, yes, the polls excel file has them winning all. Saint-Léonard is Italian land, and while Italians are declining, ethnic minorities (especially Arabs) are replacing them. And neither Italians nor Arabs are nationalists.

edit: the results file gives one poll to the Bloc, by 2 votes. (67-65)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #185 on: July 22, 2009, 08:45:20 AM »

what kind of Arabs are in St Leonard? Algerians and Lebanese?
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Hash
Hashemite
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« Reply #186 on: July 22, 2009, 08:54:11 AM »

what kind of Arabs are in St Leonard? Algerians and Lebanese?

Yeah, mostly. There's also a large number of Haitians and a growing Hispanic community, mainly South American.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #187 on: July 22, 2009, 09:35:30 AM »

what kind of Arabs are in St Leonard? Algerians and Lebanese?

Yeah, mostly. There's also a large number of Haitians and a growing Hispanic community, mainly South American.

Hmm, I can see the Bloc trying to target these communities. They have already had a Haitian MP.
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« Reply #188 on: July 22, 2009, 10:07:16 AM »

what kind of Arabs are in St Leonard? Algerians and Lebanese?

Yeah, mostly. There's also a large number of Haitians and a growing Hispanic community, mainly South American.

Hmm, I can see the Bloc trying to target these communities. They have already had a Haitian MP.

Good luck at that. Ethnic minorities don't want independence.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #189 on: July 22, 2009, 02:30:31 PM »

Why is Bowen Island so liberal? Makes little sense from what the wiki has to say about how it is now - you can guess from the article that it is latte liberal, but are left wondering why.

Probably the same reason the Gulf Islands area.
Which are what, Conservatives don't use ferries to commute?

Neither the Gulf Islands nor Bowen Island is really a commuter area, so much as generally hippieish and upper-middle-class environmental. (I don't necessarily mean literally that people don't commute to Vancouver from Bowen, but the ferry's a pain in the neck so you really have to want the lifestyle to move there). Both are Liberal pretty much only because they're in ridings where that's how you beat the Conservatives.

Re eastern Vancouver Island, it's interesting that if you look at the last census the whole strip from Victoria up to Comox is pretty much the only area of the country with very high growth that is not in the suburbs of somewhere. The stereotype is that there are a lot of Albertans moving in, though I have no hard data on this (I don't even know if the census measures this).

Also no data here, but I would imagine there's a serious ethnic component to the polarization in Newton-North Delta.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #190 on: July 22, 2009, 02:41:59 PM »
« Edited: July 22, 2009, 02:50:26 PM by SoFA EarlAW »

As for Newton-North Delta, the polarization is actually the civic border of Delta and Surrey. Probably has something to do with it.

I didn't want to pour over the ethnic distribution of all the census tracts in the area, so I looked at some thematic maps, and noticed that Liberal blotch is considerably more allophone (first language neither French nor English) than the Delta area.
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Verily
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« Reply #191 on: July 22, 2009, 02:51:08 PM »

The Conservatives swept (won all the polls in) a riding in Quebec (Beauce)!  That riding, like all currently Conservative-held ridings in Quebec except Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean which they picked up more in a by-election in September 2007, wasn't even held by the Tories going into the 2006 election (and they might have swept it in that election as well, as their candidate got 67.02% that year but "only" 62.40% in 2008), although the BQ vote went down from 19.97% to 14.00% so they might have won a poll in the previous election.

The Liberals swept one riding in Quebec (one riding nation-wide actually), Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel.  The Bloc Québécois swept two ridings, Montcalm and Rivière-du-Nord.  All other poll sweeps were Conservative sweeps, two in Ontario (where they also won all polls except one where they tied with the Liberals in one riding, Carleton-Mississippi Mills), two in British Columbia and eight in... take a wild guess. Smiley

Didn't the NDP sweep Vancouver East? It looks like it on that map.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #192 on: July 22, 2009, 03:03:25 PM »

The Conservatives swept (won all the polls in) a riding in Quebec (Beauce)!  That riding, like all currently Conservative-held ridings in Quebec except Roberval-Lac-Saint-Jean which they picked up more in a by-election in September 2007, wasn't even held by the Tories going into the 2006 election (and they might have swept it in that election as well, as their candidate got 67.02% that year but "only" 62.40% in 2008), although the BQ vote went down from 19.97% to 14.00% so they might have won a poll in the previous election.

The Liberals swept one riding in Quebec (one riding nation-wide actually), Saint-Léonard-Saint-Michel.  The Bloc Québécois swept two ridings, Montcalm and Rivière-du-Nord.  All other poll sweeps were Conservative sweeps, two in Ontario (where they also won all polls except one where they tied with the Liberals in one riding, Carleton-Mississippi Mills), two in British Columbia and eight in... take a wild guess. Smiley

Didn't the NDP sweep Vancouver East? It looks like it on that map.

There's one Liberal poll, if you look closely. The NDP also almost swept St. John's East (except for one mobile poll)
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #193 on: July 22, 2009, 03:08:07 PM »

Some more info on that Liberal blotch:

That area is called Newton, and is predominantly a Sikh area. The Liberal MP for the area is Sikh. Provincially however, the NDP holds that area, and the MLA is Sikh. So um, I guess it has more to do with the candidate than anything else.
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cp
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« Reply #194 on: July 24, 2009, 10:55:42 AM »

Hey guys,

I'm sorry I can't contribute to this thread in a more meaningful way, but these maps are awesome! they should be required viewing for every political operative in the country (except the Tory ones Tongue). Great job to everyone who came up with them!

Now for the hard part:

Is it possible to get these images onto a single website? Combing through the 13 pages on this thread can be cumbersome and it would be nice to have something set up so you could just click a name and get to the riding (or collection of ridings) you want to see. Ultimately it would be awesome to get a full map of Canada like that with zoom capability, toolbars with voting stats, riding profiles, and candidate information: the works! I know that's beyond the efforts of any single person on here, but maybe we could collaborate and make it easier?

Just a thought  . . .

In the mean time, the East Coast seems to be a bit underreprestented. Can we see Halifax and St. John's? I second the call for an Oshawa map. I wouldn't mind seeing the Niagara Peninsula as well.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #195 on: July 24, 2009, 01:13:38 PM »

Sounds like you're calling for a Canadian version of this website Cheesy
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Хahar 🤔
Xahar
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« Reply #196 on: July 24, 2009, 01:21:38 PM »

I would enjoy that. Smiley
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the506
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« Reply #197 on: July 24, 2009, 01:43:05 PM »

I could probably get something done with a Google Maps interface...something like this:
http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&hl=en&geocode=&q=http:%2F%2Fwww.gpmurray-research.com%2Felectoral-atlas%2Fkmz%2FGuelph.kmz&ie=UTF8&z=18

Let me try and figure something out by tonight...
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #198 on: July 24, 2009, 01:59:16 PM »

Neat. I'd prefer you make more maps though Wink
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the506
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« Reply #199 on: July 24, 2009, 07:06:35 PM »

Here's something...still needs more work though:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/freddytest.html

(The Conservatives should especially get this info, btw. And if you want any more proof I have no life, this is it. Smiley )
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