Canadian federal polling division files

[Hatman 🍁]

Metro Vancouver

[Linus Van Pelt]

Also, lets still work on getting the poll by poll done if we can.  If someone could show me how to work this, I might be able to e-mail one.

Some other interesting ones though

416 - by former municipality

Liberals over 50%

Scarborough

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, East York, York, Etobicoke, North York

The interesting part here is more who came in second.  In Toronto, York, and East York, the NDP came in second whereas the Tories in North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke, otherwise the NDP was strongest near the core of the city while the Tories did better away from it.  I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there.  Nonetheless the margins are nowhere near what the Tories get in Rural Alberta.

Do you have the actual numbers for these?

[Hash]

Madawaska County, Restigouche County, Kent County, Westmoreland County (all have a large Francophone community, although ironically the Tories won Madawaska County in 2006.  I am guessing since it is so heavily French, their arts cuts that hurt them in Quebec probably had a spillover effect.  This county seems to move more in line with Quebec than New Brunswick)

The Liberal seem to have been utterly destroyed everywhere in French Canada. In Quebec they dropped to single-digits in most places outside the West Island/Hull, they lost places like Ottawa-Orleans (and Bélanger had his closest run yet in Vanier) or Glengarry-Prescott-Russell which they held since God knows when, and they came this close to losing Madawaska-Restigouche. Some votes came back in Quebec and New Brunswick in 2008, not as much in Ontario. Probably based on Harper and Verner's oh so intelligent idea of arts cuts. Since I don't think it was a love for Rat-face "not a leader" Dion.

[trebor204]

Here's Edmonton. (I will and try post other cities soon. I will have to update make some modifications to spreadsheet first.)

Yellow in Edmonton - Sherwood Park is James Ford (Independent)

[Хahar 🤔]

Ah, I remember James Ford.

[trebor204]

Here's Toronto!
Dots - Are 400 and 500 series polling stations (Mobile and Apartments)

Toronto West


Toronto East


Downtown

[mileslunn]

Here's Edmonton. (I will and try post other cities soon. I will have to update make some modifications to spreadsheet first.)

Yellow in Edmonton - Sherwood Park is James Ford (Independent)

What is that big red poll in the bottom left?  That seems odd in the rural areas.  Is it an Indian Reserve by any chance as this would be the only logical possibility.

[mileslunn]

Thanks a lot.  I'll have more municipal numbers for Southern Ontario in the coming days so hopefully we can do one for Southern Ontario.  For Liberal supporters it will be very depressing considering how few municipalities outside the GTA went Liberal.

[mileslunn]

Also, lets still work on getting the poll by poll done if we can.  If someone could show me how to work this, I might be able to e-mail one.

Some other interesting ones though

416 - by former municipality

Liberals over 50%

Scarborough

Liberals 40-50%

Toronto, East York, York, Etobicoke, North York

The interesting part here is more who came in second.  In Toronto, York, and East York, the NDP came in second whereas the Tories in North York, Scarborough, and Etobicoke, otherwise the NDP was strongest near the core of the city while the Tories did better away from it.  I also believe Scarborough is the most ethnically diverse of them, I think over 60% are visible minorities so that might explain why the Liberals do so well there.  Nonetheless the margins are nowhere near what the Tories get in Rural Alberta.

Do you have the actual numbers for these?

I just have the Liberal and Conservative.

Toronto:  Liberal 41.1%, Conservative 16.8% (old city pre-amalgmation
East York:  Liberal 40%, Conservative 21.4%
York:  Liberal 46%, Conservative 18.8%
North York:  Liberal 47.1%, Conservative 28.7%
Scarborough: Liberal 51.6%, Conservative 28.4%
Etobicoke: Liberal 47.8%, Conservative 34.7%

Total Toronto 416: Liberal 46.3%, Conservative 25.8%

The fact the Liberals got under 50% in Toronto is really a disaster for them.  Back in 2000, I believe they got almost 60%.  Likewise 26% for the Tories is not bad for a city as large and diverse as Toronto, even if low for the Tories nationally.

[mileslunn]

Here are some more municipalities in Southern Ontario

Dufferin County

Tories over 50%

Mono, Orangeville, Shelburne, Amaranth, East Grafraxa, East Luther Valley, Melancthon

Tories 40-50%

Mulmur

Grey County

Tories over 50%

West Grey, Southgate, Grey Highlands (otherwise the ones away from the lake)

Tories 40-50%

Blue Mountains, Hanover, Meaford, Chatsworth, Georgian Bluffs

Green Party 30-40%

Owen Sound (The only municipality in Ontario they won and I also believe the only one outside of Elizabeth May's riding)

Wellington County

Tories over 50%

Centre-Wellington, Erin, Guelph/Eramosa, Mapleton, Minto, Puslinch, Wellington North

Liberals 30-40%

Guelph

Brant County

Tories over 40%

Brant

Tories 30-40%

Brantford

Bruce County

Tories over 40%

Arran-Elderslie, South Bruce Peninsula, Northern Bruce Peninsula, Huron-Kinloss, Saugeen Shores, South Bruce

Tories 30-40%

Brockton, Kincardine

Halidmand County and Norfolk County are single tier municipalities so Tories 30-40% in Haldimand County and Tories 40-50% in Norfolk County.  The Liberals ironically won Simcoe narrowly but lost badly in the rest of the county.

Perth County

Tories over 50%

North Perth, Perth East, Perth South, West Perth, St. Mary's

Tories 30-40%

Stratford (tight three way split as the NDP, Liberals and Tories all got between 30-33%)

Oxford County

Tories over 60%

Norwich

Tories 50-60%

East Zorra-Tavistock, Tillsonburg, Blandford-Blenheim, South-West Oxford, Zorra

Tories 40-50%

Woodstock and Ingersoll (If you add the CHP on, Ingersoll was the only town where less than 50% voted for parties on the right)

Huron County

Tories over 50%

South Huron

Tories 40-50%

Ashfield-Colborne-Wawanosh, Bluewater, Central Huron, Goderich, Howick, Huron East, Morris-Turnberry, North Huron

Chatham-Kent is a single tier municipality so Tories 40-50%.  The Liberals ran close to even in Tilbury which has a large Francophone population while the Tories got over 50% in the northern parts primarily

Middlesex County

Tories over 50%

North Middlesex, Adelaide-Metcalfe, Southwest Middlesex, Lucan-Biddulph, Strathroy-Caradoc, Middlesex Centre, Thames Centre

Tories 40-50%

Newbury

Tories 30-40%

London

Elgin County

Tories over 50%

Bayham, Aylmer, Dutton/Dunwich

Tories 40-50%

Central Elgin, St. Thomas, Southwold, West Elgin

Lambton County

Tories over 60%

Lambton Shores, Enniskillen, Oil Springs (whats with Oil Springs and Lambton shores, the Tories got almost 2/3 here which is unheard of elsewhere outside of Eastern Ontario)

Tories 50-60%

Warwick, Brooke-Alvinston, Dawn-Euphemia, Plympton-Wyoming, Petrolia, St. Clair

Tories 40-50%

Sarnia and Point Edward

I've now given all the 519, 905, and 416 municipalities as well as most of Central Ontario.  I just need to do the 613.  I will also try to do Parry Sound District and Muskoka District even though it is disputable whether they are Northern or Southern Ontario.

[Hatman 🍁]

This is going to be one blue map!

I am surprised that London went Conservative. Hmmm...

[minionofmidas]

Here's Edmonton. (I will and try post other cities soon. I will have to update make some modifications to spreadsheet first.)

Yellow in Edmonton - Sherwood Park is James Ford (Independent)

What is that big red poll in the bottom left?  That seems odd in the rural areas.  Is it an Indian Reserve by any chance as this would be the only logical possibility.

Yes.

[mileslunn]

This is going to be one blue map!

I am surprised that London went Conservative. Hmmm...

London was actually a three way split as lets remember each party won one of the three ridings.  The Tories were however the only party to get over 30% in all three ridings.  Yes, it will be one blue map, although I think many of the US ones are much the same.  Pennsylvania when done by municipality is overwhelmingly GOP, even though Obama carried the state.

[Hash]

A map of all Québec City, including the God-awful suburbia would be cool. And one including Portneuf-Jacques Cartier too, btw!

[Linus Van Pelt]

Awesome work, Trebor!

[mileslunn]

Here is Eastern Ontario

Ottawa, Kawartha Lakes, and Prince Edward County are single tier divisions so Tories 40-50% in Ottawa, Tories 40-50% in Prince Edward County, while Tories 50-60% in Kawartha Lakes.

Renfrew County (Cheryl Gallant's riding, depressing if you are progressive, great if you are a Conservative)

Tories over 60%

Petawawa, Laurentian Valley, Adamston Bromley, Madawaska Valley, Bonnechere Valley, Brunedell, Lyndoch and Raglan, Horton, Killaloe, Hagerty, and Richards; McNab-Braeside, North Algona-Wilberforce, Whitewater Region, Arnprior

Tories 50-60%

Head, Clara, and Maria; Laurentian Hills, Greater Madawaska, Renfrew

Tories 40-50%

Pembroke

Liberals 40-50%

Deep River (This is the town near the Chalk River research labratory for the isotopes are)

Lanark County  I remember at a bar, someone saying that I was in the middle of redneck country when I told them I was from Toronto, while I was visiting here.  This is also the county that started the Ontario Landowner's Association although now throughout Rural Ontario you see signs on people's property saying this is our land, back off Government.  This is also where Randy Hillier comes from.

Tories over 60%

Mississippi Mills, Lanark Highlands, Beckwith, Carleton Place, Drummond/North Elmsley, Montague, Tay Valley,

Tories 50-60%

Perth and Smith Falls

Prescott and Russell United Counties

Tories over 50%

Russell

Tories 40-50%

Clarence-Rockland, The Nation, Champlain

Liberals 40-50%

Alfred and Plantagenet, Hawkesbury, Casselman, East Hawkesbury

Stormont, Dundas, and Glengarry United Counties

Tories over 60%

North Dundas, South Dundas, South Stormont

Tories 50-60%

Cornwall, North Glengarry, North Stormont, South Glengarry

Leeds and Grenville United Counties

Tories over 60%

Rideau Lakes, Athens, Elizabethtown-Kitley, Augusta, North Grenville

Tories 50-60%

Westport, Leeds and Thousands Islands, Gananoque, Front of Yonge, Brockville, Merrickville-Wolford, Prescott

Lennox & Addington County

Tories over 50%

Addington Highlands

Tories 40-50%

Stone Mills, Greater Nepanee, Loyalist

Frontenac County

Tories over 50%

North Frontenac and Central Frontenac (fairly sparsely populated so thats why the Liberals still won this county)

Tories 40-50%

South Frontenac

Liberals 40-50%

Frontenac Islands (beat the Tories by 2 votes here, both around 40%)

Liberals 30-40%

Kingston (The Tories did worse here, but the Liberals also slightly than Frontenac Islands, my guess is due to the university there were probably more Green and NDP votes)  Hopefully someone can do a map for Kingston as well.

Haliburton County

Tories 50-60%

Minden Hills, Dysart et Al, Algonquin Highlands, Highlands East

Hastings County

Tories over 60%

Tudor and Cashel,

Tories 50-60%

Hastings Highlands, Carlow-Mayo, Faraday, Bancroft, Wollaston, Limerick, Mamora and Lake, Madoc, Sterling-Rawdon, Tweed, Centre Hastings, Quinte West

Tories 40-50%

Belleville

Tories 30-40%

Tyendinaga (Large Mohawk population, Liberals won the polls on the reserve)

Northumberland County

Tories over 50%

Cramahe and Trent Hills

Tories 40-50%

Brighton, Alnwick-Haldimand, Hamilton, Cobourg, Port Hope

Peterborough County

Tories over 50%

Asphodel-Norwood, Cavan-Monaghan, Duoro-Dummer, Galway-Cavendish-Harvey, Havelock-Belmont-Metheun, North Kawartha, Otonabee-South Monaghan, Smith-Ennismore-Lakefield

Tories 40-50%

Peterborough

[Hatman 🍁]

You should probably split the reserves off, but that's just me. (They are separate municipalities, after all)

Oh, and are there any places that are 70%+ Conservative? I'm surprised I haven't seen any yet.

[trebor204]

Awesome work, Trebor!

Thanks.

Now here's Quebec City

[mileslunn]

You should probably split the reserves off, but that's just me. (They are separate municipalities, after all)

Oh, and are there any places that are 70%+ Conservative? I'm surprised I haven't seen any yet.

I would like to split off the reserves, unfortunately a lot of the polling data doesn't give this one, although you are right their voting patterns are quite different.  There were a few that got in the high 60s and if you take the former municipalities prior to amalgmation some surpassed 70%.

[mileslunn]

Awesome work, Trebor!

Thanks.

Now here's Quebec City

Whats with the Conservative over 80% in one poll in Lotbiniere-Chutes-de-la-Chaudiere.  Was this the home town of the MP by any chance so such numbers are pretty much unheard of outside of Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

Awesome work, Trebor!

Thanks.

Now here's Quebec City

Surprising how separatist some of the former anglo areas are...

You should probably split the reserves off, but that's just me. (They are separate municipalities, after all)

Oh, and are there any places that are 70%+ Conservative? I'm surprised I haven't seen any yet.

I would like to split off the reserves, unfortunately a lot of the polling data doesn't give this one, although you are right their voting patterns are quite different.  There were a few that got in the high 60s and if you take the former municipalities prior to amalgmation some surpassed 70%.

Once you get Muskoka and Parry Sound done, I can make a map!

[mileslunn]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I should be able to get the done by the end of today.

[Hatman 🍁]

You missed Malahide in Elgin County, by the way

[MaxQue]

You missed Malahide in Elgin County, by the way

And Simcoe County.

[Hatman 🍁]

You missed Malahide in Elgin County, by the way

And Simcoe County.

He did Simcoe.

I just made the map, all I need to do is fill in the blanks If we could get some municipalities in southern Nipissing and maybe Manitoulin, it would be nice as well.