Canadian federal polling division files

[mileslunn]

Here is PEI by county, pretty simple though

Kings County --------------  Liberals 50-60% (ironic as this was the Tories strongest area provincially, yet weakest federally)

Queens County -------------- Liberals 40-50%

Prince County ----------------- Tories 40-50% (Tories won by 2 votes in the Malpeque portion and 57 votes overall)

[Linus Van Pelt]

Why are the Kootenays so NDP, and is that pattern continued in Kootenay--Columbia?

The Kootenays in Kootenay-Columbia are very Conservative, quite the opposite.  You see the same provincially where East Kootenay went strongly BC Liberal and if you add the BC Conservatives over 60% voted centre-right, whereas Nelson-Creston and West Kootenay are both solid NDP ridings provincially.

It is sort of a weird combo, but here is my best guess

Grand Forks and Castlegar have a large Dhukobor population who are pacifist and communalist in lifestyle

Trail has a large smelter so heavily unionized

Rossland is a ski resort so your liberal attitude not unlike Sun Valley and Jackson in the US.

Nelson is a hippie enclave, has a large draft dodger population from the Vietnam War in the 60s.

In fact in Kootenay-Columbia, the northern parts of the riding up around Golden and Revelstoke are the most competitive parts, the Southern parts are staunchly Conservative.  In Cranbrook, the Tories got 64%.

I think this basically captures it, except that Castlegar is also a unionized paper mill town, and Grand Forks also has some forestry. Though I don't mean to deny the religious-left influence (Doukhobors are a Quaker-like pacifist sect who fled Czarist Russia for western Canada in the 19th Century).

The heavily NDP area north of Castlegar and Nelson is the Slocan Valley, which was originally a Doukhobor farming area but became a major Vietnam draft-dodger area. The rural areas in the southern part of the inset are more working-class resource-based, but there's still something of a countercultural vibe.

So basically you've got a kind of unique combination where the working-class is very unionized in a few large resource operations, the traditional rural religious population is unusually left-wing, and the middle-class is at the far left end of North American middle-class culture.

[Linus Van Pelt]

One other random and slightly amusing note is that the NDP reserve in the Okanagan is the Osoyoos band, whose chief Clarence Louie is something of a darling of the national right for going around telling everybody about how natives need to get off their dependency on federal welfare, forget about old treaties, and succeed in private business.

[Hash]

Could anybody look up how the Mormon sect community of Bountiful, BC voted? I would assume it's in Kootenays-Columbia, might be in BC SoInterior though.

[deansherratt]

An excellent question. it is located in the riding of Kootenay-Columbia. The settlement doesn't appear to be "organized" and must be part of another larger town or district. In any event, the OVR has no listing for Bountiful so it must be called something else. It is SE of Creston and very close to the USA border.

I do know that there are more substantial Mormon concentrations in Southern Alberta. Both Raymond and Cardston are small towns that are heavily Mormon and also overwhelmingly Conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Bountiful is not a recognized place name in Canada, but apparently it is outside of Lister, BC.

Lister voted
Conservative: 162
NDP: 38
Green: 24
Liberal: 14

Truly Hashemite's version of hell!

[mileslunn]

An excellent question. it is located in the riding of Kootenay-Columbia. The settlement doesn't appear to be "organized" and must be part of another larger town or district. In any event, the OVR has no listing for Bountiful so it must be called something else. It is SE of Creston and very close to the USA border.

I do know that there are more substantial Mormon concentrations in Southern Alberta. Both Raymond and Cardston are small towns that are heavily Mormon and also overwhelmingly Conservative.

It is true Alberta, the predominately Mormon towns in Southern Alberta vote Conservative by obscenely large margins in some cases, over 90%, much the way Southeastern Idaho and rural Utah votes massively Republican.  I expect Bountiful went heavily Conservative, although in many ways the Conservatives might be the worse party for them as they would be the party most likely to use the notwithstanding clause if the courts legalized Polgamy.  As toxic as the notwithstanding clause is, I don't think the public would be too happy about seeing polgamy legalized.

[the506]

Here's the NB map by municipality/parish. There were quite a few cases where polling boundaries crossed these lines...I either used my best judgment or merged them together.

[mileslunn]

Here's the NB map by municipality/parish. There were quite a few cases where polling boundaries crossed these lines...I either used my best judgment or merged them together.

Good job here.  Asides from that blue in the very Northwestern corner it appears to be divided strongly along linguistic lines (otherwise Francophone = centre-left, NDP/Liberal, while Anglophone = centre-right, Tory).  My one question is how come the very western part of Madawaska County seems to usually go Conservative at both the provincial and federal level.  I believe this area is over 90% Francophone and usually they tend to go Liberal or NDP in the case of Yvon Godin's riding.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

IIRC there was one provincial election when all the PC seats were in Madawaska.

[the506]

IIRC there was one provincial election when all the PC seats were in Madawaska.

That was 1995, where the PCs won 6 seats, 3 of which were the Madawaska ones...basically Bernard Valcourt coattails.

[Hatman 🍁]

Is that Dalhousie that voted NDP?

[mileslunn]

Is that Dalhousie that voted NDP?

I believe Dalhousie did go NDP.  Sackville was also a tight three way race thus why it is a very light red.  The NDP did well there as well, probably because of the student population, while the Tories were competitive probably because of their strength amongst Anglophones in New Brunswick.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

How did Rene Lévesque's place-of-birth vote?

[Hash]

How did Rene Lévesque's place-of-birth vote?

Liberal, I'm pretty sure. The map is unclear in that area.

[the506]

Campbellton was 40% Liberal.

A few more notes:
* I can only count 5 majority-anglo municipalities that went Liberal, 4 of them have large franco minorities and the other was Shawn Graham's hometown.
* Fredericton went Conservative by 20 votes.
* Sackville was really a 4-way race.

Also...anyone know where I can find a NS provincial riding GIS file?

[Hash]

Anyways, we need maps of Laval, the Saguenay and Gaspesie! Especially the latter.

[Hatman 🍁]

* Sackville was really a 4-way race.

Do you know why? And do you know why Dalhousie voted NDP?

[Hash]

* Sackville was really a 4-way race.

Do you know why? And do you know why Dalhousie voted NDP?

Old industrial working-class city, now there's a uni and it's a touristy place.

[the506]

* Sackville was really a 4-way race.

Do you know why? And do you know why Dalhousie voted NDP?

Easy...Sackville's a university town. If you look at the polls in Fredericton around UNB you see the same patterns.

Dalhousie...NDP candidate was from there. Big employer (paper mill) just closed.

[mileslunn]

Campbellton was 40% Liberal.

A few more notes:
* I can only count 5 majority-anglo municipalities that went Liberal, 4 of them have large franco minorities and the other was Shawn Graham's hometown.
* Fredericton went Conservative by 20 votes.
* Sackville was really a 4-way race.

Also...anyone know where I can find a NS provincial riding GIS file?

Which were the four majority Anglo towns to go Liberal.  I know Moncton has an Anglo majority, but with a large Francophone majority.  Which were the other four.

I will try and do Nova Scotia by municipality over the weekend, although I will just list off the municipalities and anybody who can paste a map in can help on this.

[Hash]

Don't forget Quebec by MRC!

[mileslunn]

Don't forget Quebec by MRC!

I will work on that after Nova Scotia by municipality.  This might take a while as there are quite a few here.  The good thing is I don't think we will be having an election until the spring.  For starters, I suspect the Liberals are probably having second thoughts based on the most recent polls.

[mileslunn]

I was wondering if someone could do a map for the municipalities of Ottawa and Hamilton pre-amalgmation.  I already have one ready for Hamilton which I could e-mail to anyone (I still am having trouble pasting it in).

Anyways here is the Capital Regional District (I've excluded the Gulf Islands municipalities in the city by city, but this includes them)

Overall it was Tories 35.2%, Liberals 30.3%, NDP 23.8%

The reason for the NDP poor numbers were they bombed Saanich-Gulf Islands, after the NDP candidate (Julian West) had to withdraw over skinny dipping in front some teenage girls.

Tories over 50%

Sidney (I believe this has a large seniors population)

Tories 40-50%

North Saanich, Central Saanich

Tories 30-40%

Saanich, Langford, Colwood

Liberals 30-40%

Esquimalt, View Royal, Metchosin, Highlands, and Sooke (All in Keith Martin's riding so I think this has more to do with Keith Martin's personal popularity than any Liberal support)

NDP 40-50%

Victoria

NDP 30-40%

Oak Bay (generally centre-right, but you have a fair number of Blue Liberals here and in fact the NDP only narrowly beat out the Tories, possibly due to the incumbent advantage)

Just a side question, I know Victoria has a lot of British immigrants so I wonder what part of Britain most came from as I know the Industrial North is quite left wing, but the South is more Conservative, so I wonder if a lot came from the Industrial North.  Off course the strong NDP Victoria probably has more to do with the large civil servant population, never mind Sidney which is quite Conservative I believe has a large British immigrant population.

[mileslunn]

Here is a start on Nova Scotia by municipality (I couldn't get the data on the subdivisions within each Nova Scotia county, so perhaps someone could let me know which poll #'s correspond with each subdivision and then I can provide the data)

Amherst --------------  Independent 70-80%
Annapolis (I don't have each subdivision breakdown A-D) ----------- Tories 40-50%
Annapolis Royal ------------- Liberals 40-50%
Antigonish ----------------- Green Party 40-50%
Antigonish (subdivision A to B) ------------- Tories 40-50%
Argyle ------------------- Tories 40-50%

Barrington ---------------- Tories 40-50% (The Christian Heritage Party got 7% here and even won a couple of polls in 2006, is this area unusually religious?)
Berwick ---------------- Tories 40-50%
Bridgetown ------------- Liberals 40-50%
Bridgewater -------------- NDP 30-40%

Canso ---------------- NDP 30-40%
Cape Breton Regional Municipality ------------------------ Liberals 50-60%
Chester ------------------ Tories 30-40%
Clare ----------------- Liberals 40-50%
Clark's Harbour ------------- Tories 30-40%
Colchester (Don't have Subdivision A-C) ------------------- Independent 60-70%
Cumberland (Don't have Subdivisions A-D) ----------------- Independent 70-80%

Digby (town) ------------------- Tories 30-40%
Digby (Municipal District) ------------ Tories 30-40%

East Hants ----------------- Liberals 30-40%

Guysborough -------------------- Tories 40-50%

Halifax ------------------- NDP 40-50%
Hantsport --------------- Liberals 50-60%

Inverness (Don't have subdivision A-C breakdowns) ------------------ Liberals 40-50%

Kentville ----------------------- Liberals 40-50%
Kings (Don't have subdivision A-D) --------------------------- Liberals 30-40% (I believe the Liberals won the portion in Kings-Hants, while the Tories the portion in West Nova)

Lockeport ---------------------------- NDP 30-40%
Lunenburg (town) ---------------- Tories 30-40%
Lunenburg (Municipal District) ------------------ Tories 30-40%

I will have the rest of the municipalities tomorrow.