Canadian federal polling division files

[Hatman 🍁]

Detail of Ottawa South using an existing trace map I have.

[MaxQue]

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Russell is so conservative.

[MaxQue]

Hey folks...don't know if this is old news or not, but I just noticed this today. Federal polling division boundaries are finally available to us peons through GeoGratis, if you have a GIS program. They go back to 2000.

Would it be possible to make maps of 2006 with that?

If so, I have an odd request. (Actually, I'd be somewhat interested even in 2008. Dull as it will look.) Macleod, Alberta. Myron Wolf Child took 2.1% of the vote riding-wide in 2006 as a Native Nationalist indy... I want to see how he did on the riding's four reserves.

It is possible to make 2004, 2006 and 2008 maps. 2000 has no polling divisions results avaliable, I think.

For Myron Wolf Child in 2006:

Sarcee 15: 1.3%. 61.7% Cons
Sarcee 16: 2.7%. 55.3% Cons
Sarcee 17: 17.1%. 68.6% Libs

Eden Valley 35: 4.1%. 79.4% Libs

Siksika 86: 10.6%. 74.3% Libs
Siksika 87: 10.6%. 67.4% Libs
Siksika 88: 8.5%. 74.4% Libs
Siksika 89: 6%. 77.4% Libs

Peigan 135: 21.5%. 65.2% Libs
Peigan 136: 18.9%. 68.6% Libs

Blood 160: 10.7%. 83.2% Libs
Blood 161: 16.9%. 81.7% Libs
Blood 162: 10.6%. 82.9% Libs
Blood 163: 12.9%. 81% Libs
Blood 164: 12.9%. 83.2% Libs
Blood 165: 18.3%. 75.1% Libs

[Hash]

York Centre... not as interesting as I'd have thought...



Why isn't it interesting? I guess Jews live in apartments, mostly.

Results of 400-600 polls:

Conservative 49.08%
Liberal 34.55%
NDP 10.81%
Green 5.57%

[Linus Van Pelt]

I guess Jews live in apartments, mostly.

Not really, but old people do.

Indeed, someone who knows the polling district system better than I do can correct me on this, but my understanding was that your typical high-rise tower doesn't get its own 400-series poll (how else could there be regular block polls in some areas of downtown Toronto, for instance), but only those where there's a specific reason to have people vote in their buildings, such as old folks' homes where people aren't mobile. (But as I say, not sure about this).

[Hatman 🍁]

I guess Jews live in apartments, mostly.

Not really, but old people do.

Indeed, someone who knows the polling district system better than I do can correct me on this, but my understanding was that your typical high-rise tower doesn't get its own 400-series poll (how else could there be regular block polls in some areas of downtown Toronto, for instance), but only those where there's a specific reason to have people vote in their buildings, such as old folks' homes where people aren't mobile. (But as I say, not sure about this).

I think if one apartment building is a poll, then it will be in the 400s. In Ottawa South, polls 400-402 are a series of 3 condos; polls 403-406 are separate lower class apartment buildings, as are 407 and 408.  Not all single apartment buildings will be in the 400s, as there are some exceptions, I believe, but I can't name any examples.

Glengarry-Prescott-Russell. Russell is so conservative.

Neat. It looks like Hawkesbury is a major hold out. It is a rather french town, as is Casselman. However, Russell Township is pretty French, and it's almost all blue.

[the506]

I think it goes like this:

400s: large apartment buildings/condos
500s: mobile polls/seniors homes
600s: advance polls

[trebor204]

The 2000 (and 1997) results are available at:
http://www.elections.ca/content.asp?section=gen&document=index&dir=rep/37d&lang=e&textonly=false.

Some info on polling numbers and polling boundaries. (I agree with the506 - see last post)

1 - 299 - Regular Polling Areas
400 Series - Special Polling Areas - Mostly Apartment Blocks (Student Residences)
500 Series - Mobile Polls - Hospital and Personal Care Homes.
600 Series - Advance polls.

Depending on the Apartment Block and Electoral District some will be treated as Regular Polling Areas, and some will be treated as the 400 Series.

Many of the the large apartment complex in Winnipeg have their own boundaries.
Other use the 400 Series Numbers.

Polling areas tend to keep the same boundaries during each election, even after redistribution.
Most of the polling division from 2000 (under 1996 Redistribution Order) are the same as 2008. (The only difference are the riding name and poll number).
Poll Numbers tend to keep the same poll number during the current redistribution.

However, there are some expections:

1) If a polling areas sees an increase in population (new sub-divsion). Then the polling division is spilt. (ie 94 will become 94, 94-1, 94-2, etc.(There are some polls that have been spilt 10 times 94, 94-1 to 94-9)

2) Sometimes the polling station becomes too large (too late to change the boundaries), then there is what I called an Alpha Spilt. (Those whose last name begin with A-N vote in 94A, those with M-Z vote in 94B)

3) In some electoral districts with a large increase in voters, they will just renumber each and every poll.

[Hatman 🍁]

3) In some electoral districts with a large increase in voters, they will just renumber each and every poll.

Oh dear, do you know of any cases of this? Maybe in Brampton?

[trebor204]

Some examples:

Brampton West
Mississauga Brampton South
Thornhill
Mississauga Erindale
Oak Ridges - Markman
Calgary Nose Hill
Calgary West
Calgary South West
Edmonton Leduc

[Hatman 🍁]

Some examples:

Brampton West
Mississauga Brampton South
Thornhill
Mississauga Erindale
Oak Ridges - Markman
Calgary Nose Hill
Calgary West
Calgary South West
Edmonton Leduc

Why Thornhill or Calgary Southwest? They've only grown 12-13% (2001-2006) while the others you listed are over 20%.

[minionofmidas]

For Myron Wolf Child in 2006:

Sarcee 15: 1.3%. 61.7% Cons
Sarcee 16: 2.7%. 55.3% Cons
Sarcee 17: 17.1%. 68.6% Libs

Sarcee has white-inhabited areas. It shows, I suppose...

Now I wonder what percentage of Wolf Child's vote came from the rezzes... and what percentage of the Liberal candidate's. And what the result for the nonrez part of the riding is.

[MaxQue]

For Myron Wolf Child in 2006:

Sarcee 15: 1.3%. 61.7% Cons
Sarcee 16: 2.7%. 55.3% Cons
Sarcee 17: 17.1%. 68.6% Libs

Sarcee has white-inhabited areas. It shows, I suppose...

Now I wonder what percentage of Wolf Child's vote came from the rezzes... and what percentage of the Liberal candidate's. And what the result for the nonrez part of the riding is.

Easy to calculate. I'll calculate about tomorrow. Too tired now. With or without Sarcee 15 and 16?

[minionofmidas]

For Myron Wolf Child in 2006:

Sarcee 15: 1.3%. 61.7% Cons
Sarcee 16: 2.7%. 55.3% Cons
Sarcee 17: 17.1%. 68.6% Libs

Sarcee has white-inhabited areas. It shows, I suppose...

Now I wonder what percentage of Wolf Child's vote came from the rezzes... and what percentage of the Liberal candidate's. And what the result for the nonrez part of the riding is.

Easy to calculate. I'll calculate about tomorrow. Too tired now. With or without Sarcee 15 and 16?

I don't care, just mention which you did. Or just post me the exact link and I'll do it myself.

[minionofmidas]

Some stats on Eden Valley... (figure on right is Alberta)

Number of dwellings constructed before 1986      25                              785,200                
Number of dwellings constructed between 1986 and 2006    40                    470,995          
Dwellings requiring major repair - as a % of total occupied private dwellings    76.9                    6.7          
Dwellings with more than one person per room - as a % of total occupied private dwellings    30.8                    1.3      

[deansherratt]

An excellent map. prior to 1968, Eglinton was essentially North Toronto centred on Yonge Street. Since then, Yonge Street has divided the Eglinton neighbourhoods in half...those in the west half going to Eglinton and/or Eglinton Lawrence while those east have gone to Don Valley West.

Eglinton Lawrence has really three distinct communities...all going froms south to north. The furthest west is an extension of the Downsview Italian community. Based on Bathurst is the substantial Jewish community which moved from Kensington Market in the 1950s-60s and the very Anglo Eglinton making up the rest.

In 2008 this riding is an excellent example fo the Jewish vote finally trending Conservative. If the Tories had also run well in their traditional neighbourhoods in Eglinton, they would have taken this riding. Here redistribution makes it very hard for the Tories to win.   

[deansherratt]

The results from York Centre are actually pretty interesting. First, you have Ken Dryden coming rather close to losing his own riding. It isn't much of "his riding' in the sense that he has never lived there and publicly indicated that he wouldn't in his first election in 2004 - a good test of how strong a Liberal riding it was. But in 2006-8, the Jewish portion of the riding, containing many Orthodox neighbourhoods, has shifted Conservative - making the riding rather close for one which had been one of the most Liberal in Toronto.

[minionofmidas]

Macleod.

Reserves excluding the Sarcee suburb provided only 27% of Wolf Child's vote. Less than I thought, which explains things. And actually less than of the Liberal vote (36%!). But just 1% of the Green vote, 0.3% of the Tory vote (those two Sarcee precincts provided these two with more votes than all the other reservation areas together), 3% of the NDP vote.

Onrez (without those Sarcee places) combined:
Liberal 76%, Wolf Child 13%, NDP 4%
Offrez (also without those Sarcee places)
Tory 79%, NDP 6.6%, Green 6.22%, Liberal 6.19%

[deansherratt]

Of course, while many parts of a riding can be stable and keep the same poll boundaries, some are growing explosively and either have extra polling subdivisions added to existing polls, 145-1, 145-2 etc...or just new polls added. I have found that 2004 and 2006 are quite similar across teh country but there was a number of ridings whose polls were changed in 2008. Had the election been further delayed, they would have been an extensive remaping take place.

[cp]

Hey y'all. Can we see some Cambridge-Waterloo area maps?

Also, on a very different note, is there anyone with their ears to the ground who's heard something about the timing of the next election? My Liberal sources are all gearing up for late September. The Tories seem to no longer understand what the word 'election' means and change the subject. Any other perspectives?

[deansherratt]

Hey CP...The Liberals probably have the decision to take. The NDP and Bloc will vote to defeat the government, whether or not it is in their interests.

I wonder if the Liberals will suffer a momentary backlash if they do so and then if they think they can generate a good enough campaign to defeat the Conservatives...just adding a few seats to their total seems rather pointless.

We must also remember that in 2006 the election was won in the campaign - polls now are tight, suggesting Liberal gains, but just relying on that is quite a gamble.

[Hash]

Two interesting maps...



Thornhill is, afaik, the only plurality Jewish riding in Canada. It was also one of those which actually swung to Tory's PCs in the 2007 Ontarian election (Jews liked Tory's school issue). Following the national trend of a strong Jewish swing from Lib to Con, the Conservatives won by 10% or so.



Welland was a close 3-way race in 2008 (and 2006) which was won, to my surprise, by the NDP.

[MaxQue]

Hey CP...The Liberals probably have the decision to take. The NDP and Bloc will vote to defeat the government, whether or not it is in their interests.

I wonder if the Liberals will suffer a momentary backlash if they do so and then if they think they can generate a good enough campaign to defeat the Conservatives...just adding a few seats to their total seems rather pointless.

We must also remember that in 2006 the election was won in the campaign - polls now are tight, suggesting Liberal gains, but just relying on that is quite a gamble.

Tha is in the interest of the Bloc to defeat the government. Harper is hated to much in Quebec than explaining why they are keeping it in place would be difficult.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here is Welland from 2006



Looks so similar to 2008, yet the order of the 3 parties completely changed

2006 it was Lib, NDP, Cons
2008 it was NDP, Cons, Lib

[minionofmidas]

Three (or perhaps rather four, two of them quite close to each other?) urban areas, each of them with an east-west split. Quite an interesting map.

EDIT: Seems that Thorold merges pretty seamlessly into St Catherines, and the NDP area at the far north of the map is in central St Catherines someplace. I suppose we need a combined Welland - St Catherines map now.