Canadian federal polling division files

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP used to hold the seat that Jasper is in provincially. I think that's probably a big reason.

[Smid]

It's also possible that since it's such safe Tory, left voters are more willing to vote Greens (at least in Banff) because they don't see it as wasting their vote. They'd probably unite behind the NDP or the Liberals if either party had a shot at the seat.

[Smid]

Hey, The506 - just a quick query... sometimes there's a riding/city/region done already and I *know* it's already been done, and I want to go look for it (such as now, when I'm trying to find Vancouver...). Previously this wasn't much of an issue - there weren't many pages to look through, but now we're sitting at thirty-five pages of posts, it gets a bit "gluggy" trying to wade through them all. Since it's your thread, I was wondering if you'd mind editing your first post to include a list of ridings/cities/regions and the link to them? It's probably a bit of an effort, so if not, that's okay. In fact, I might try to start on it and put it at this end, so you can cut and paste it at the start to make it easier.

[mileslunn]

It's also possible that since it's such safe Tory, left voters are more willing to vote Greens (at least in Banff) because they don't see it as wasting their vote. They'd probably unite behind the NDP or the Liberals if either party had a shot at the seat.

I think that is probably true for much of Alberta thus why the Green Party does better.  Strategic voting is pointless in most Alberta ridings save (Edmonton-Strathcona and maybe Edmonton Centre) as the Tories are going to win by well over 50%.  So one can vote for their first choice without worrying about a Tory candidate slipping up the middle.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Hey, The506 - just a quick query... sometimes there's a riding/city/region done already and I *know* it's already been done, and I want to go look for it (such as now, when I'm trying to find Vancouver...). Previously this wasn't much of an issue - there weren't many pages to look through, but now we're sitting at thirty-five pages of posts, it gets a bit "gluggy" trying to wade through them all. Since it's your thread, I was wondering if you'd mind editing your first post to include a list of ridings/cities/regions and the link to them? It's probably a bit of an effort, so if not, that's okay. In fact, I might try to start on it and put it at this end, so you can cut and paste it at the start to make it easier.

I did a list 10 or so pages back of what's been done and needed (IMHO) to be done. If someone can find and update it (I'm lazy) then I can go back and add the links tonight to each post.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

and probably they're a bit more NDP/Con than average because of the British party system.

That's about right, yeah. I did see some research on the subject once (a few decades old, mind). I've got some relatives in Canada, and that's more-or-less how they split - mind you, most of them live in Saskatchewan.

[the506]

Hey, The506 - just a quick query... sometimes there's a riding/city/region done already and I *know* it's already been done, and I want to go look for it (such as now, when I'm trying to find Vancouver...). Previously this wasn't much of an issue - there weren't many pages to look through, but now we're sitting at thirty-five pages of posts, it gets a bit "gluggy" trying to wade through them all. Since it's your thread, I was wondering if you'd mind editing your first post to include a list of ridings/cities/regions and the link to them? It's probably a bit of an effort, so if not, that's okay. In fact, I might try to start on it and put it at this end, so you can cut and paste it at the start to make it easier.

Good idea...I'll do something up tonight.

[mileslunn]

Here are some cities we should do

I tried to avoid one's that one party likely swept or made near sweep of

British Columbia

Prince George
Kamloops

Saskatchewan

Prince Albert

Ontario

GTA - Including all the 905 belt suburbs (one of Durham Regional Municipality, York Regional Municipality, Peel Regional Municipality, and Halton Regional Municipality would work too)

Barrie (If a near Tory sweep then ignore)
Sarnia
Thunder Bay
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie (the whole riding would even be better)
North Bay (the whole riding would also be better)
Kingston (including the Islands would also be great
Belleville
Peterborough (City only, I think the Tories won pretty much all the rural polls)

Quebec

Laval
South Shore Suburbs
Trois Riveries (unless it was a near Bloc Quebecois sweep)
Sherbrooke (unless it was a near Bloc Quebecois sweep
Saguenay
Drummondville (unless it was a near Bloc Quebecois sweep)

New Brunswick

Edmundston

PEI

Charlottetown

Newfoundland & Labrador

St. John's

Now some ridings I would like to see done in whole if possible

BC

Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Manitoba

Churchill

Ontario

Simcoe North (the Municipalities of Tiny, Tay, Penetanguishene, and Midland only is good enough as those were the only competitve parts, the rest of the riding went pretty heavily Tory so I suspect they won almost all the polls)

Haldimand-Norfolk
Huron-Bruce
Chatham-Kent-Essex
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Sault Ste. Marie
Nickel Belt
Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing
Nippissing-Timiskaming
Northumberland-Quinte West

Quebec

Richmond-Arthabaska
Megantic-L'Erable
Brome-Missiquoi
Compton-Stanstead
Beauharnois-Salaberry
Brossard-La Prairie
Vaudreuil-Soulanges

New Brunswick

Miramichi
Madawaska-Restigouche
Beausejour

PEI

Malpeque

Nova Scotia

Cape Breton Island - both ridings included
West Nova
South Shore-St. Margaret's

Newfoundland & Labrador

St. John's South-Mount Pearl
Avalon

Yukon

[mileslunn]

Here is the Island of Montreal by municipality



The Western part is heavily Anglophone so that is why the Liberals did better there and most of those municipalities the Conservatives came in second and got above the province wide average of 22%.  The Bloc Quebecois in fact struggled to crack the double digit mark in those ones.

In the central area, those are around Mount Royal, thus most Anglophone or Allophone as well as they are wealthy and have a large Jewish community.  The Bloc Quebecois got absolutely clobbed here while the Tories got over 30% in both Hampstead and Cote Saint Luc (I believe both have a large Orthodox Jewish community) whom the Tories did well amongst.

The Bloc Quebecois didn't win Montreal since despite their dominance amongst Francophones and on the East side, they did poorly amongst both Allophones (mainly on the North side) and Anglophones (more to the West). Montreal Est is the only municipality that is overwhelmingly Francophone.  If anybody wants to supply me with a blank map of polls giving the numbers, I can help do some maps here.

[Hash]

Would be funner by old municipality.

Tories did poorly with Quebec Jews compared to their performance with Ontarian Jews. Though much better than in 2006 and Mont-Royal was 'uber-close' by local standards in 2008.

ftr, we already have a full map of Montreal Island by poll in this thread.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you have the numbers for Montreal? Should be interesting going into a municipal election and whatnot.

[the506]

Here's Quebec by MRC:

[Hash]

Great, thanks a lot.

[mileslunn]

Here's Quebec by MRC:

Whats with those two Liberal ones in the Gaspe region.  Was this more a personal vote for Nancy Charest who was a former MNA.  The other interesting one is the one Liberal one in the Eastern Townships although I believe that area has a sizeable Anglophone community.  In the Eastern Townships, I think the Liberals won most the communities near the US border while the further North one goes the better the Bloc Quebecois did.

Although not surprising, I've often wondered why the Appalaches-Chaudieres region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.  Other than the fact it borders New Hampshire (which seems like a weak reason to me) it is odd why this region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.

[mileslunn]

Would be funner by old municipality.

Tories did poorly with Quebec Jews compared to their performance with Ontarian Jews. Though much better than in 2006 and Mont-Royal was 'uber-close' by local standards in 2008.

ftr, we already have a full map of Montreal Island by poll in this thread.

If someone could supply me a map of the former municipalities I could do one up.  In fact the Bloc Quebecois actually beat the Liberals if you take Montreal pre-amalgamation.  For example in La Salle-Emard (Paul Martin's old riding) the Bloc Quebecois won the former parts of Montreal in the past three elections, while the LaSalle portion went massively Liberal in all cases.  The suburbs by municipality would also be interesting.  Although it depends on how far out one extends Greater Montreal, the Tories did win the community of Hudson (which is Jack Layton's birthplace) and the also won two border municipalities in Beaharnois-Salaberry although they are largely rural.  There are two Tory ridings within commuting distance of Montreal although both in Ontario (so I don't think too many people commute from either).

[mileslunn]

I can also do one of British Columbia by Regional District if anyone is interested.  I also will later try to do the subdivisions of the remaining provinces although in the case of Alberta, I wonder if it is really worth it considering it will all just be shades of blue and in most cases very dark blue.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's Quebec by MRC:

Oh wow. I made about 7 mistakes. Maybe 8. What colour is Sherbrooke?

I can also do one of British Columbia by Regional District if anyone is interested.  I also will later try to do the subdivisions of the remaining provinces although in the case of Alberta, I wonder if it is really worth it considering it will all just be shades of blue and in most cases very dark blue.

This would be awesome. We should try all the provinces, so we can make a big map.

BTW, Montreal's former municipalities:

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, two of the northern RCMs aren't shown on your map.

[mileslunn]

Here is Montreal pre-amalgamation



Lachine seems a bit odd as it is on the West side, although I am guessing it is predominately Francophone unlike the surrounding ridings.  The North side is the most heavily immigrant so quite polarized between Francophones (mostly Bloc) and Allophones (mostly Liberal).  Outremont went NDP mainly due to Thomas Mulclair being NDP candidate, while Saint Laurent was the most heavily Liberal of all them probably because it was entirely in the Liberal leader's riding (Stephane Dion).  Ironically he had the best showing for the Liberals outside Newfoundland & Labrador so I guess he is well liked in his own riding (although still pretty solidly Liberal anyway) despite being not well liked in other parts of the country.

[Verily]

According to the below Wikipedia article, eastern Lachine is very Bloc while western Lachine is very Liberal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame-de-Gr%C3%A2ce%E2%80%94Lachine

[Hatman 🍁]

Labrador: Liberal results by community.

Division No. 11

Nain: 62%
Hopedale: 81%
Postville: 85%
Makkovik: 82%
Rigolet: 81%

Division No. 10
Natuashish: 63%
Wabush: 58%
Labrador City: 58% (1154/2005)
Churchill Falls: 59% (10-D)
North West River: 75%
Mud Lake: 92% (10-C)
Happy Valley-Goose Bay: 73% (1534/2112)
Cartwright: 91%
Black Tickle: 93% (10-B)
Norman's Bay: 68% (10-B)
Charlottetown: 96%
Pinsent Arm: 96% (10-B)
Williams Harbour: 80% (10-B)
St. Louis: 96%
Port Hope Simpson: 94%
Mary's Harbour: 94%
Lodge Bay: 97% (10-B)
Red Bay: 72%
West St. Modeste: 87%
L'Anse-au-Loup: 80%
Forteau: 88%
Lance-au-Clair: 89%

I'll combine the unorganized areas and the census division totals later.

According to the below Wikipedia article, eastern Lachine is very Bloc while western Lachine is very Liberal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame-de-Gr%C3%A2ce%E2%80%94Lachine

Added by me, thanks to this thread

[mileslunn]

Labrador: Liberal results by community.

Division No. 11

Nain: 62%
Hopedale: 81%
Postville: 85%
Makkovik: 82%
Rigolet: 81%

Division No. 10
Natuashish: 63%
Wabush: 58%
Labrador City: 58% (1154/2005)
Churchill Falls: 59% (10-D)
North West River: 75%
Mud Lake: 92% (10-C)
Happy Valley-Goose Bay: 73% (1534/2112)
Cartwright: 91%
Black Tickle: 93% (10-B)
Norman's Bay: 68% (10-B)
Charlottetown: 96%
Pinsent Arm: 96% (10-B)
Williams Harbour: 80% (10-B)
St. Louis: 96%
Port Hope Simpson: 94%
Mary's Harbour: 94%
Lodge Bay: 97% (10-B)
Red Bay: 72%
West St. Modeste: 87%
L'Anse-au-Loup: 80%
Forteau: 88%
Lance-au-Clair: 89%

I'll combine the unorganized areas and the census division totals later.

According to the below Wikipedia article, eastern Lachine is very Bloc while western Lachine is very Liberal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame-de-Gr%C3%A2ce%E2%80%94Lachine

Added by me, thanks to this thread

Labrador to the Liberals (at least in 2008) was practically what Albert was for the Tories.  Though much of this was probably due to the ABC Campaign.  In fact the Tories won Churchill Falls, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Wabush, and Labrador City in 2006 (I suspect this was a case of riding of Danny Williams coattails since he was neutral in this election).

[Hash]

According to the below Wikipedia article, eastern Lachine is very Bloc while western Lachine is very Liberal.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Notre-Dame-de-Gr%C3%A2ce%E2%80%94Lachine

Eastern Lachine is an old French working-class area. Dorval is an Anglo area, though definitely not wealthy compared to Senneville or Kirkland. Montreal West is very Anglo + quite wealthy.

Here's Quebec by MRC:

Whats with those two Liberal ones in the Gaspe region.  Was this more a personal vote for Nancy Charest who was a former MNA.  The other interesting one is the one Liberal one in the Eastern Townships although I believe that area has a sizeable Anglophone community.  In the Eastern Townships, I think the Liberals won most the communities near the US border while the further North one goes the better the Bloc Quebecois did.

Although not surprising, I've often wondered why the Appalaches-Chaudieres region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.  Other than the fact it borders New Hampshire (which seems like a weak reason to me) it is odd why this region is so much more Conservative than the rest of Quebec.

Chaudieres-Appalaches is an enclave of federalism and economic right-wing views in ultra-Francophone territory. Most of it voted no in 1995.

For example, Beauce is one of thew few seats in rural QC (Pontiac, I think, is the only other one) to have never elected a Bloquiste MP. And maybe the only French-majority riding to
never elect one.

Yeah, those areas of Gaspesie are personal votes for Nancy Charest. The traditional Liberal areas in Gaspesie are those along the border with NB and not touching the ocean.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I can also do one of British Columbia by Regional District if anyone is interested. 

Yes, this would be interesting.

In the central area, those are around Mount Royal, thus most Anglophone or Allophone as well as they are wealthy and have a large Jewish community.  The Bloc Quebecois got absolutely clobbed here while the Tories got over 30% in both Hampstead and Cote Saint Luc (I believe both have a large Orthodox Jewish community) whom the Tories did well amongst.

The Jewish communities here aren't particularly Orthodox - there are definitely some in CSL which is quite diverse along economic, Ashkenazi/Sephardi and secular/Orthodox lines, but Hampstead is just a standard rich North American suburb where almost everyone happens to be Jewish, like some places the north shore of Long Island. The main Hasidic community is actually in a specific corner of Outremont of all places. (There's a Hasidic bus that goes non-stop from Outremont to Brooklyn, which people take to avoid gender-mixing, non-kosher food, etc., that is having perpetual licensing problems because of not going through the regular bus terminals )

The Town of Mount Royal proper, meanwhile, is actually a lot more Francophone than people assume just looking at the riding results, 44% at the last census. Like Francophones in the rest of the more Anglo enclaves, it's a well-off, business-conservative type group, very federalist.

[Hash]

Indeed. People who vote Bloc in Montreal are usually lower-income and Francophone, or young and hardcore nationalist.