Canadian federal polling division files

[minionofmidas]

One (anecdotal, I admit) thing re Churchill as well as Kenora and Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River: I distantly know a guy in Toronto who's from a tiny place way up at the north end of Kenora riding, and he calls both his people and his native language "Oji-Cree", because, he says, the boundary between the more central-Ontario Ojibwe and the more northern Cree is pretty vague up there, with dialects gradually becoming more similar

This is correct.

[mileslunn]

I'll try to get Saskatchewan by census division done tomorrow.

[deansherratt]

I have posted more maps showing federal election results from the 1940s-1950s. Of particular interest are three returns for Trinity riding which was a centre in Canada for the Labour Progressive Party (aka Communist Party), especially its working class Jewish voters. When an LPP candidate was not offered in neighbouring Spadina riding in 1949, LPP voters there swung massively to the Liberals rather than to either the Conservatives or more left-leaning CCF.

[Hatman 🍁]

I have posted more maps showing federal election results from the 1940s-1950s. Of particular interest are three returns for Trinity riding which was a centre in Canada for the Labour Progressive Party (aka Communist Party), especially its working class Jewish voters. When an LPP candidate was not offered in neighbouring Spadina riding in 1949, LPP voters there swung massively to the Liberals rather than to either the Conservatives or more left-leaning CCF.

Theyre way too small to see

[mileslunn]

Here is Saskatchewan by census division



Even though the Tories won Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River, they came in third in Division 18, but won big (over 60%) in the other areas.  Also Division 18 is overwhelmingly Aboriginal who generally have a lower turnout, but a group the Tories tend to do quite poorly amongst.  The other division they got under 50% in was Division 6 which includes Regina.  They got over 50% in Division 11 since despite getting under 50% in Saskatoon (they were in the high 40s in the city proper) they won the rural areas by large margins.  I am guessing since Saskatoon has fewer civil service workers it is more conservative than Regina.  I believe the Saskatchewan Party narrowly beat the NDP in Saskatoon while lost to them by a sizable margin in Regina in the last provincial election. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Just Alberta, Newfoundland and NWT to do now

[mileslunn]

Here is a map of Nunavut by region.  I could only find the Northwest Territories prior to Nunavut created, so if someone could supply me a newer regional map, I could fill it in.



I will try and work on Newfoundland & Labrador.  It will be a very red map.  Off course Alberta will be a very dark blue map.

[mileslunn]

Here is Newfoundland & Labrador by subdivision



Except for the Avalon peninsula, pretty strongly Liberal, although much of this has to do the ABC Campaign which basically annihiliated the Tories in Newfoundland & Labrador.  In 2006, the Tories won Division 1 and Division 8.

[Hatman 🍁]

As noted in a previous post, Labrador was divided into 2 Divisions before last census. I did a break down by community. You should check that out.

Also, the NWT regions are on Wikipedia. There's just 2 of them.

[Хahar 🤔]

NL is pretty awesome.

[mileslunn]

As noted in a previous post, Labrador was divided into 2 Divisions before last census. I did a break down by community. You should check that out.

Also, the NWT regions are on Wikipedia. There's just 2 of them.

Actually, you will notice a line in the very top separating the two Labrador districts.  Both were low 70s for the Liberals since in Division 10 the Liberals were only in the high 50s in the Western part, but got in the 90s in many coastal communities, while Division 11 was 71%.  Do you have a blank map of the Northwest Territories since wikipedia does show the NWT subdivided in relation to all of Canada, but not when I go specifically to NWT.

[Hatman 🍁]

As noted in a previous post, Labrador was divided into 2 Divisions before last census. I did a break down by community. You should check that out.

Also, the NWT regions are on Wikipedia. There's just 2 of them.

Actually, you will notice a line in the very top separating the two Labrador districts.  Both were low 70s for the Liberals since in Division 10 the Liberals were only in the high 50s in the Western part, but got in the 90s in many coastal communities, while Division 11 was 71%.  Do you have a blank map of the Northwest Territories since wikipedia does show the NWT subdivided in relation to all of Canada, but not when I go specifically to NWT.

That white line isn't the border. Division No. 11 is the Nunatsiavut area, which is along the central coast.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Kamloops - this will turn into a real swing seat like V. Island North when the BC riding sizes get reduced to the national average, since 86,000 of the current 115,000 live in Kamloops.



Off the map, the rest of the riding is basically all Conservative, and generally by large margins, except a tie in the lumber-mill village of Avola, plus the Simpcw of the North Thompson whose one poll was 77% NDP and only 4% Conservative.

[Hatman 🍁]

Kamloops is a bellwether provincially, so it could become a swing seat.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Montreal island polls with no BQ votes.
EDIT just to be clear: the red polls are those polls in which exactly 0 votes were cast for the Bloc Quebecois. The east end of the city is cut off at the top, but there are no such polls there. Riding boundaries off the island are not shown.



It's kind of surprising there aren't more, but one thing I've learned from doing all this is that it's extremely hard to actually get to zero for a major party.

[mileslunn]

Based on the communities provided earlier in Labrador, the Liberals got around 70% in both divisions.  I just need to complete Alberta and NWT.  Anyways, I thought I should give an update of what polls for ridings I would like to see.  If anyone can tell me how to use this to get them, I can work on some

British Columbia

Skeena-Bulkley Valley

Saskatchewan

Prince Albert

Manitoba

Churchill (riding)

Ontario

Durham Regional Municipality
York Regional Municipality
Peel Regional Municipality
Halton Regional Municipality
Haldimand-Norfolk
Sarnia (only bother doing if there are a sizeable number of non-Tory polls)
Thunder Bay
Sudbury
Sault Ste. Marie (both riding and city)
North Bay
Nipissing-Timiskaming
Kingston (might as well include the islands as well)
Peterborough (city only is fine, I believe the Tories pretty much won every poll outside the city)
Belleville

Quebec

Sherbrooke (only if there are a sizeable number of non-Bloc polls)
South shore suburbs
Laval
Outaoais area as a whole
Brome-Missiquoi
Saguenay

PEI

Whole island is preferable, but each riding on its own is fine

Nova Scotia

South Shore-St. Margaret's
West Nova
Cape Breton Island

[Smid]

An interesting map for Alberta might be one in which from each Riding, you deduct each party's average vote across Alberta, and then chart the results accordingly.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Montreal island polls with no BQ votes.


It's kind of surprising there aren't more, but one thing I've learned from doing all this is that it's extremely hard to actually get to zero for a major party.

I don't understand what is going on here

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

An interesting map for Alberta might be one in which from each Riding, you deduct each party's average vote across Alberta, and then chart the results accordingly.

This sounds good for any areas really. Above and below the norm, with the party most above or below getting the colour

example:

province wide
CPC - 40%
Lib - 35%
NDP - 20%
Grn - 5%

Riding One
CPC - 38% (down two)
Lib - 34% (down one)
NDP - 21% (up one)
Grn - 7% (up two)
This riding would be coloured in Green

CPC - 35%
Lib - 36%
NDP - 25%
Grn - 4%
And Orange here etc

[Smid]

I don't understand what is going on here

I looked at it for a while, too, but I think Blue is a poll in which the Bloc received at least one vote and Red is a poll in which the Bloc received no votes whatsoever.

An interesting map for Alberta might be one in which from each Riding, you deduct each party's average vote across Alberta, and then chart the results accordingly.

This sounds good for any areas really. Above and below the norm, with the party most above or below getting the colour

example:

province wide
CPC - 40%
Lib - 35%
NDP - 20%
Grn - 5%

Riding One
CPC - 38% (down two)
Lib - 34% (down one)
NDP - 21% (up one)
Grn - 7% (up two)
This riding would be coloured in Green

CPC - 35%
Lib - 36%
NDP - 25%
Grn - 4%
And Orange here etc

Yep - exactly what I mean. Ridings will basically go to whichever party most outperformed relative to the average you want to compare them to (Provincial or National - for Alberta, provincial is obviously the better suggestion, since the tories outperformed in most ridings relative to their national average). I actually completed this for the last Alberta Provincial election. My figures ended up with the following numbers in the Legislature:

PC: 29
Alberta Libs: 27
NDP: 9
WAP: 12
Green: 3
Indies: 3

So basically, if the Libs, NDP and Greens were willing to work together (or at least support the Libs in confidence votes), and likewise the PC and WAP were willing to work together (or at least support the PC, etc, etc), the three indies would hold the balance of power.

[Linus Van Pelt]

I don't understand what is going on here

I looked at it for a while, too, but I think Blue is a poll in which the Bloc received at least one vote and Red is a poll in which the Bloc received no votes whatsoever.

Yes, this is what it is. Sorry for not being more explicit, I'll go back and edit it. (That blue is just what the files come in in QuantumGIS - I've been filling it in always, but here it would have been a pain).

[Hash]

I don't understand what is going on here

I looked at it for a while, too, but I think Blue is a poll in which the Bloc received at least one vote and Red is a poll in which the Bloc received no votes whatsoever.

Yes, this is what it is. Sorry for not being more explicit, I'll go back and edit it. (That blue is just what the files come in in QuantumGIS - I've been filling it in always, but here it would have been a pain).

Côte Saint-Luc lol

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Do we have maps for the 4 ridings having by-elections?

[Hash]

Do we have maps for the 4 ridings having by-elections?

Save for CCMV, yes. It's been asked, oh, a million times.

[the506]

FYI...I'm working on a national poll-by-poll map. Should have it ready in a couple of weeks.