Canadian federal polling division files

[Linus Van Pelt]

Do we have maps for the 4 ridings having by-elections?

Save for CCMV, yes. It's been asked, oh, a million times.

It's not that interesting, in 2006 the NDP and Liberals have just a couple of polls each around Truro. In 2008 Casey won every non-Micmac poll.

[Lotuslander]

Here are the colour-coded maps for the 4 by-elections:

1. CMMV
http://krago123.googlepages.com/CCMV_2006PD_Map.pdf

2. Hochelega
http://krago123.googlepages.com/Hoch_2008PD_Map.pdf

3. MLKR
http://krago123.googlepages.com/MLIKRL_2008PD_Map.pdf

4. NWC
http://krago123.googlepages.com/NWC_2008PD_Map.pdf

Courtesy to Krago.

[mileslunn]

Here are the colour-coded maps for the 4 by-elections:

1. CMMV
http://krago123.googlepages.com/CCMV_2006PD_Map.pdf

2. Hochelega
http://krago123.googlepages.com/Hoch_2008PD_Map.pdf

3. MLKR
http://krago123.googlepages.com/MLIKRL_2008PD_Map.pdf

4. NWC
http://krago123.googlepages.com/NWC_2008PD_Map.pdf

Courtesy to Krago.

Do you have those for the whole country or least where I could these.

[Hatman 🍁]

oh neat, I think this is the same guy that made that St. Paul's map I posted for the by-election.

[minionofmidas]

Sweet.

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

Here are the colour-coded maps for the 4 by-elections:

1. CMMV
http://krago123.googlepages.com/CCMV_2006PD_Map.pdf

2. Hochelega
http://krago123.googlepages.com/Hoch_2008PD_Map.pdf

3. MLKR
http://krago123.googlepages.com/MLIKRL_2008PD_Map.pdf

4. NWC
http://krago123.googlepages.com/NWC_2008PD_Map.pdf

Courtesy to Krago.

Do you have those for the whole country or least where I could these.

http://www.google.ca/search?q=site:krago123.googlepages.com+krago123.googlepages.com&hl=en&safe=off&filter=0

[smurfmatic]

That's the amalgamation of single Montreal-region ridings that I generated on my app at http://earth.smurfmatic.net/canada2008/polls/

[Hatman 🍁]

You're the one that created that site? Good stuff! Too bad the colours aren't shaded!

[Teddy (IDS Legislator)]

You're the one that created that site? Good stuff! Too bad the colours aren't shaded!

You are the one who started the whole shaded thing

[mileslunn]

That's the amalgamation of single Montreal-region ridings that I generated on my app at http://earth.smurfmatic.net/canada2008/polls/

Any possibility of doing one for the GTA.  Asides from a few ridings, Brampton, and Toronto, we still have yet to see a poll by poll result for the GTA.  I did see one for 2006 in the Toronto Star, but considering the Tory gains in the 905 belt, I suspect it would look a lot different.

I should note on this one, I am surprised how much red there is on Laval.  I know the Liberals did well on the west side of Laval, but I didn't realize how widespread their support was.  Although I suspect, the areas that went Liberal all have sizeable Allophone communities as there are very few Francophone areas that don't go Bloc Quebecois in the Montreal area.

The blue to the west is the municipality of Hudson which is predominately Anglophone.  In fact if you can believe it, that was Jack Layton's birthplace, mind you Harper's birthplace (Etobicoke) went Liberal, in fact I think he born in Ignatieff's riding.

[deansherratt]

Harper attended Richview Collegiate which suggests that Etobicoke Centre was his riding and not Lakeshore.

[adma]

I suspect that Hudson is only blue because this is where cabinet minister and Tory senator Michael Fortier tried for his Commons seat, skewing the non-Bloc picture on his behalf.  (And Harper's first home was in Leaside; his family moved to the Etobicoke in the 1970s.)

[Hash]

I suspect that Hudson is only blue because this is where cabinet minister and Tory senator Michael Fortier tried for his Commons seat, skewing the non-Bloc picture on his behalf.  (And Harper's first home was in Leaside; his family moved to the Etobicoke in the 1970s.)

I suspect Hudson voted Liberal (Marc Garneau) in 2006 and before that too. And will probably do so next election unless something happens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that Hudson is only blue because this is where cabinet minister and Tory senator Michael Fortier tried for his Commons seat, skewing the non-Bloc picture on his behalf. 

Ah, yes. I do so like the fact that Faille's name can easily be mispronounced as "fail".

[the506]

For the GIS folks among you....here's the polling division database file with last year's results included:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/pd308_a.dbf (34MB)

I've put together a national poll-by-poll map from this. Any requests?

[Hatman 🍁]

For the GIS folks among you....here's the polling division database file with last year's results included:

http://www.the506.com/elxnmaps/pd308_a.dbf (34MB)

I've put together a national poll-by-poll map from this. Any requests?

Let's see the ridings we haven't seen yet

[Hash]

Well, more urgent requests:

-Parts of the GTA
-Laval
-Montreal South and North Shore
-Gaspesie
-Calgary
-Saguenay
-PEI
-West Nova, South Shore-St. Margaret's, Kings-Hants, Cape Breton Island

[the506]

York region:


Peel/Halton (except for Brampton which I did earlier):


Laval/north shore:


South shore Montreal:


Gaspesie:

[the506]

Saguenay:



Calgary:


PEI:


Cape Breton:


Kings-Hants:


South Shore and West Nova:

[mileslunn]

York region:


Peel/Halton (except for Brampton which I did earlier):


Laval/north shore:


South shore Montreal:


Gaspesie:

Excellent job. 

The York Region seems to be divided between the Liberals in the core suburban areas just north of the city (save the central part of Thornhill which went heavily Conservative) and the outerlying suburbs and rural areas going Conservative.  In Oak Ridges-Markham, I believe the Tories won fewer polls than the Liberals and looking at the map, it looks quite blue, so it appears the Liberals were largely in the built up areas in Markham and Richmond Hill and everywhere else which is more small town or countryside going Conservative.  My one surprise is that one red poll in Dufferin Caledon.  Considering the Liberals only got 19% in that riding and almost finished in third, I am surprised they won any polls there.

Halton-Peel region seems logical, although those few large red polls in the southern part of Milton look odd as I believe this area is mostly farmland.  I wonder if they are dairy farmers (and the same goes for the red polls in the rural parts of Huron-Bruce earlier) as many of them are worried about supply management and despite the Tories supporting it, some fear if they got a majority, they would junk it since it goes against their free market ideology.  I should note their opposition to the Canadian Wheat Board seems to have not hurt them in the Prairies, mind you I think prairie farmers are bit more individualistic.  Anybody know if this is the case.

Laval-North Shore - I am surprised how much red there is in the two Laval ridings the Bloc won.  I am wondering if anybody knows what the ethnic-linguistic breakdown is since I suspect the Francophone community went heavily Bloc Quebecois in all of those ridings and the Allophones heavily Liberal.  The one large Tory poll in Riviere-des-Milles-Iles looks odd, although I understand the Tory candidate was a former mayor, so I wonder if that is where he lived.

South Shore - Generally makes sense.  It appears the one Liberal stronghold is the western part of Saint Lambert and Brossard portion of Brossard-La Prairie.  I believe this area is quite ethnically diverse and if I am not mistaken has a large Chinese community.  By contrast I think La Prairie and the eastern parts of Saint Lambert are pretty heavily Francophone.

Gaspesie - Surprised how many polls the Tories won, although I suspect the areas near the New Brunswick border are pretty sparsely populated.  Also, do these areas have a large Anglophone community as it seems the Tories did well amongst the rural Anglophone vote i.e. Pontiac.

Saguenay - Seems generally quite competitive between the Bloc and Tories, only in Jonquiere-Alma does it seem to go solidly Tory so I suspect it would have been fairly evenly split if it wasn't for Jean-Pierre Blackburn's personal vote.

Cape Breton Island - Lots of blue in the South, are those polls part of the mainland since it looks like they are.

South Shore-St. Margaret's and West Nova - Much like our county and municipal maps, looks awfully random here as well, mind you both ridings were pretty close, still it seems they were competitive through out, not one party dominating one section and another dominating another.  The one notable section is the inland portions and southern tips of both ridings seemed to be the Tory strongholds. 

PEI - Although no surprise, it looks almost the exact opposite of the most recent provincial election.  I believe the Provincial PCs were strongest on the East end and the Liberals on the West end, while federally it appears to be the exact opposite.  Provincially it might though be remnants from the past when the island was more divided along sectarian lines as I believe the East is mostly Protestant while the West is more Catholic.  Federally it seems more industry had an impact as the West tends to have more agriculture than the East, which is more Forested and amongst the farming community the Carbon tax was extremely unpopular. 

Calgary - That one Liberal/Tory tie I believe is the airport poll.  It seems the Liberals won a few polls around here, although I believe this area is predominately South Asian.  For some reason it seems areas near airports in Vancouver, Toronto, and Calgary are heavily South Asian.

[mileslunn]

Here are some more requests

Durham Region
Kingston area
Peterborough area (don't worry about the rural polls, those went pretty much all Tory anyways)
Belleville and Sarnia would also be nice too.
Southern part of the Eastern Townships in Quebec as I believe the Liberals did well here
St. John's

[Hash]

Liberal polls in Laval are pretty much allophone areas or certain high-income areas (Laval-sur-le-Lac has a lot of rather large houses and the like). There's also a large Italian community in parts of Laval.

The Liberal areas in Brossard are more ethnically diverse, and the Liberal areas in Saint-Lambert are in the old, wealthiest part of the town which, iirc, used to be more Anglo and also in Greenfield Park which is 33% Anglo. I don't know about that Liberal smudge in Candiac, it's Francophone but it seems rather wealthy.

As for Gaspesie, there's Nancy Charest' personal vote in Matane but also at the other end of the riding, which I can't explain. The anglo areas seem split between Tories and Liberals.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Hey, great, 506!

Is there really a Green poll in Cape Breton-Canso? Strange.

As Hashemite noted, the Haute Gaspesie-Matapedia-etc. riding has an odd pattern. Actually, this whole result is kind of odd - why would Nancy Charest be so personally popular as to almost carry the riding in a terrible election for the PLC and yet have lost her provincial riding (where the ADQ wasn't even all that strong) in a PLQ victory the previous year?

I think there's a reasonable chance that otherwise inexplicable Liberal polls in the middle of Bloc territory may be heavy on seniors. I say this because if you look at the lists for 400+ polls, seniors' homes (which aren't on most of our maps) sometimes went Liberal even in typical franco BQ areas.

[deansherratt]

Is it possible to show iles de la madeleine?

[deansherratt]

But before that, accept my thanks and congratulations for an incredible mapping job!