Canadian federal polling division files

[edmundcjoconnor]

Except Rosetown-Biggar, the urban precincts from Saskatoon aren't extremely NDP... fair share of Tory polls too (though much lesser margins than the rural polls!)

Ditto Regina.

I'd have to say that Nettie Wiebe apart, the NDP didn't make a big deal of running active campaigns in S-W, S-H and Blackstrap. If the NDP made a bigger song and dance and put in actual resources on the ground, then you might see the city polls flip next time around. There's a definite opportunity for the NDP in S-H especially. Trost isn't invulnerable, especially if he keeps makes snafus as he has done of late.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Looking at the Saskatoon/Regina ridings: If I was NDP (which I am), I would take heart in the fact that rural polls aren't totally off the table in Saskatoon/Regina, especially Regina. Regina-Qu'Appelle looks distinctly interesting for the NDP, while Palliser has definite possibilities. Goodale has his seat for life, but when he retires, interesting things may well happen.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Remember in S-H, there was a three-way pileup not too long ago. If the NDP started running a viable candidate there, and could enthuse enough closet-NDPers to get out and vote, while also persuading the soft-core Liberals there to join forces with them, Trost could well have a closer race next time.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Kudos to everyone here for creating the maps! It's absolutely fascinating looking at them!

For my own neck of the woods: a request for the Etobicoke ridings, please? I know it's Liberal central overall, but I'm guessing that at least in E-C and E N, the Tories will have put in some heavy dents in that rosy glow. Even in the Liberal citadel of Lakeshore, I'd be willing to guess that a few polls went the Tories' way.

Apologies for the post-bombing. I've been stalking this thread for a few days, and only just got my log-in approval.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Wow, another polarised city! Winnipeg's perhaps the only major city in the country where it's split three-ways relatively evenly. That said, the Liberals' hold on south Winnipeg is tenuous, as W-S-C shows the Tories ran them hard all over the riding. If they bolster their support there, and can shuffle some troops/resources out to Saint Boniface, they could take their second Winnipeg seat, and spare a few blushes on election night (it's not good enough to rely on the cult of Goodale to save you from a whipping in the Prairies).

For the Tories, it's consolidating their hold in Saint Boniface, and building their base in W-S-C.

The NDP's hold on central Winnipeg is well-established, but the converse of that is that they've got only Kildonan-St. Paul as a likely target. They'll need to increase their lead in Elmwood-Transcona to make a surer thing of it next time.

[edmundcjoconnor]

St. John's would be interesting now.

Although I don't know if a deep enough orange exists for St. John's East …

[edmundcjoconnor]

How do tower block polls appear on the map? Do they at all? I say this because I've got a strong suspicion the NDP won a few towers in Etobicoke North.

[edmundcjoconnor]

How do tower block polls appear on the map? Do they at all? I say this because I've got a strong suspicion the NDP won a few towers in Etobicoke North.

It appears as though they dont, unless it's a poll with more than one apartment, or if the apartment is next to a large park or something.

Drat. I suspected that might be the case.

[edmundcjoconnor]

an NDP-Green tie? Crazy!

What's crazier is a Tory-NDP tie. Boy, I wouldn't want to live in THAT neighbourhood. Would make the Hatfields and McCoys look positively civilised, by comparison.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Yeah...those tower blocks (poll #s in the 400s) are a seperate file that I haven't bothered with yet.

Here's a very interesting riding that (I think) hasn't been mentioned yet in this thread...Guelph:

What's interesting with Guelph is that virtually all the polls were quite or very close. This is a genuine toss-up seat here, folks – flipping between Libs and Tories, and even the Greens, if they're going downhill with a following wind.

[edmundcjoconnor]

In Guelph, there's four – four! – absolute dead-heat polls, with every major party involved. If this isn't a knife-edge riding, I don't know what is.

[edmundcjoconnor]

Oshawa, please? I remember seeing a Toronto Star poll-by-poll map from 2006, and I think it'll be the definition of polarized in 2008.