If Honduras' Zelaya isn't reinstated will there be democratic elections on time?

[ag]

They will hold elections, whether he is reinstated or not. The current "interim president" does seem to be an interim figure (he doesn't have that much support on his own - he didn't even win his party's nomination for the forthcoming polls, nor is he likely to be the other parties' choice), and he is a politician, not a military man.  There is no obvious "coup leader", who is likely to keep power for himself. The nominations for November polls have already happened, both major candidates are anti-Zelaya (including his former VP, who is running for his own party), and the political class, in general, seems to be interested in the polls happening as scheduled.

This is, actually, not an unlikely scenario: they'll muddle through, unrecognized, till November, at which point an election happens and, at least, the US and Europe are satisfied. If there is any change in the electoral timetable, it is likelier that the elections may be brought forward, than that they are delayed.

Of course, the fact is: Zelayistas (whoever they are) are not really represented in the polls, I believe: his own Liberals are against him. Perhaps, one of the minor leftish parties could nominate somebody close to the guy - I really don't know enoug about Honduran political intricacies to say. But, as is, the "normal" election is in the interests of the current rulers of Honduras: they simply can't loose.

[ag]

I doubt it. Constitutionalism is useful in rhetoric, but none of these men give a hang for legality.

More importantly, none of them benefits from delaying the polls.

[ag]

Define "democratic". There will be elections that will be democratic in outward form. Whether I would call an election where you have the choice between anything except what you want is "democratic" is another matter.

Well, it will be exactly as democratic and with exactly the same candidates as it would have been had Zelaya never been ousted: the political parties there are what they are, and both major parties hate Zelaya. The candidates have been nominated already some time ago.

[ag]

I doubt it. Constitutionalism is useful in rhetoric, but none of these men give a hang for legality.

More importantly, none of them benefits from delaying the polls.

Power?

For whom? Micheletti is not there to rule - he is, clearly, a transitional figure without sufficient support to stay even if he wanted to.

[ag]

Micheletti has suggested moving elections forward. My feeling is, this is exactly what they are going to try to sell to the world: elections ASAP.

[ag]

I doubt it. Constitutionalism is useful in rhetoric, but none of these men give a hang for legality.

More importantly, none of them benefits from delaying the polls.

Power?

For whom? Micheletti is not there to rule - he is, clearly, a transitional figure without sufficient support to stay even if he wanted to.

Obviously, he can't head a junta, but who's to say that the elections won't be manipulated?

By whom? The set of people who overthrough Zelaya includes all the prominent members of both major parties. If one side starts "manipulating" in its favor, the other will break ranks, and both are essencial for the "interim" regime's stability. I am not saying the election will be super-clean. All I am saying, it will be run by the same people, with the same candidates, etc., etc., as it would have been run had Zelaya still been in the presidential palace. The people who can manipulate elections now are exactly the same people, who could do it before: the political class of Honduras is unchanged.