Who Is More Likely to Win Their Primary? Sestak or Maloney?

[HAnnA MArin County]

Good question. I'd probably go with Maloney simply because she is well known in New York City compared to Kirsten Gillibrand who's not that well known in the city but is better known in Upstate New York. Maloney represents the 14th District, East Side Manhattan and Astoria in Queens, which I believe is where Wall Street is located and it's a pretty affluent district so I'm sure she would be able to raise bundles of money on her own. I personally like Maloney better than Gillibrand, although I admire Gillibrand for coming out in support of gay marriage. The challenge for Gillibrand is that she has been labeled as a more "conservative" Democrat (mind you, conservative by New York standards is probably ten times more liberal than a liberal Democrat from Alabama) all because of her support for gun rights. On all other issues, she was already fairly liberal but now she's becoming more liberal since she represents the entire state and not just the 20th District in the Upper Hudson Valley. Maloney could use this to her advantage; she could portray Gillibrand as a calculating politician whose views changed from when she in the House to now that she's in the Senate, whereas Maloney could portray herself as always having a liberal voting record, but the establishment seems to be behind Gillibrand, so I'm sure she will pull it out in a squeaker, although I wish Maloney would get it.

As for Pennsylvania, I personally hope Joe Sestak gets it. As a Democrat, I was delighted when Arlen made the switch to join our party, and after Al Franken was finally seated, we have 60 seats, but his switch upset the pragmatist in me because I, like many others, think/know he only switched because he looked at the polls and saw where he would be defeated by the more conservative Pat Toomey - meaning, he only switched for personal/electoral reasons, and because of this, I question his sincerity and dedication to the Democratic Party. The libertarian in me respects Arlen for being pro-choice and supporting gay rights but I question some of his positions on fiscal/economic issues. Arlen, like Gillibrand, seems to have the establishment behind him as well, but I'd prefer Sestak.

To answer the question at hand, right now, I'd go with Maloney. Her base in New York City is far too powerful to overcome the appointed Gillibrand's in Upstate New York. At the same time, I question how Pennsylvania Democrats feel about having Arlen Specter as their U.S. Senator if they elect him in 2010, because who knows when he'll go back to the Republican Party? And whatever happened to Allyson Schwartz? Word was going around that she might run for the Senate as well. Did she change her mind, or has she not yet declared?