PA 6 is now open.

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Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

I'm asking only so I can reconcile in my head what I read about Dinniman's win and his positioning, and whether a PA-6 candidate would have to match it; I'm not trying to make any statement about the overall D/R lean of PA-6.

I live in PA-6 (and in Dinniman's Senate district). It's a traditionally very Republican area where the Dems have made inroads the past few years. Phil, if you're talking about the special against Aichele, the GOP did make a strong challenge with a good candidate in Aichele. She just ran into the Dinniman buzzsaw.
I did a lot of PA-6 work (interviewing voters) at my old job. My sense was that Gerlach had very low name recognition. The Dems need to do well in Chester County to win this seat. I'm a Dem, but I think Schroder would be a slight favorite against Pike. (Disclaimer: I know Schroder personally, though I haven't spoken to him in many years.) Much would depend on the national mood.

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[quote author=Brian from Family Guy

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.
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Yes! The key to PA-6, IMHO, is getting a Dem from the right part of the district. (Roggio wasn't a strong candidate. I don't know much about Pike, but a Pike-Schroder matchup could have results like Gerlach-Murphy.

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[quote author=Brian from Family Guy



I'll concede the fact you know far more about PA 6 than I do.  I probably know more about PA 13 or even 1, 2, or 8 for that matter.  One thing I have noticed from people I've come across in suburban Philadelphia- younger people are FAR more liberal than their parents whereas in places like Northeast or South Philly, there is little difference.  In other words, of people around my age, those from the suburbs are fairly liberal whereas people from the NE are more conservative.  The 2000-2008 electoral trend is evident there.

I actually don't know too much (especially about the eastern part of my pterodactyl district). Doing work surveying PA-6 voters was difficult, but it at least enabled me to learn a little bit more about my district (and help to figure why Gerlach didn't do better in his elections). Agreed with your assessment about younger voters. Schroder is my state rep; Dinniman is my state senator.  Schroder usually runs unopposed. He won the 155th district in 1994, after Gerlach left for the State Senate. I don't know if I'll still be here in 2010, but it should be interesting.