PA 6 is now open.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.

IL-10 is a lot like CT-04. 

With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%. Luckily we have a candidate who represents a State House District that went to Obama with 60%, and she is top drawer fundraiser. But since there will likely be a primary challenger and that this is the ILL GOP we are talking about, there is a good chance that they could f**k it up as usuall.

What about this Curt Schroder fellow? How is he at fundraising, how well does he fit the district, and finally what is current position?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

With the exception of Cao I think IL-10 is the most Dem leaning district held by a Repub giving Obama 61%.

Obama's totals in Illinois overstate the Dem lean of the district. But this still may beat out all but a few others on Kerry numbers...

The only Republicans left in Kerry districts are Cao (75-24), Kirk (53-47), Castle (53-46), Gerlach (52-48), Reichert (51-48), and possibly Dent (50-50).

Yea its a shame considering there used to be what 20 or 30 Repubs in Kerry districts.

Let's see... you had Leach and Nussle, the three Connecticut Republicans, Beauprez, Northup, Heather Wilson, Fitzpatrick, that guy that Ron Klein beat, Bass, Weldon, and I think that's it. So, 18 or so? C'est la vie.

Clay Shaw. There is also Jim Walsh, I think NY 25 went to Kerry.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall

HP





This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.

Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

So why couldn't they in good years like 2006 and 2008?

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

Plus the Dem candidates weren't that great either.