PA 6 is now open.

[TeePee4Prez]

Thinking Pike v. Schroder?  D's SHOULD pick Dinniman.  Win this seat once and for all.

[TeePee4Prez]

I didn't think Cao has announced yet that he won't be seeking reelection.

That's irrelevant.

Well, as for Cao, he might as well be getting his resume out to K Street.  As for PA 6, it would lean Dem by default but I don't know too much about Doug Pike.  I have heard of Curt Schroder though and the Dems should coax Andy Dinniman to run.  I don't know much about IL-10, but it sounds a lot like a PA 6/7/8 or even an NJ-3 type district.

[TeePee4Prez]

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win.  In 2008, it was apparent they didn't and look how close it was.  You can't tell me with a Dem Pres margin almost that of PA 13, a Dem with some clout and backing wouldn't have won that seat.  Granted, I don't think that candidate was Lois, but others could have very well beat Gerlach.  Mind you, I realize the GOP is strong farther down the ticket, but the pattern for Dem shifts usually starts from the Presidential level, Congress, then the State House/Senate seats. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

Yes, that's why Dinniman is a threat. That being said, he did have the benefit of a weak Republican campaign against him in that Special (if I recall correctly).

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win. 

Gave a crap about this seat? Are you kidding me? This was a top target in 2002, 2004 and 2006! Sure, they didn't target it in 2008 and it was still close but if they had, Gerlach would have also stepped up his game.

Could he have lost? Sure. Is it a definite? No.

I was talking about 2008.  The district flew in the Democrats direction compared to 2004 or even 2006.  A total lightweight in Roggio got 48%.  Sure, Gerlach would have stepped up his game, but I think 2008 could have been a year that cracked him had the Dems stepped up.

[TeePee4Prez]

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I'll concede the fact you know far more about PA 6 than I do.  I probably know more about PA 13 or even 1, 2, or 8 for that matter.  One thing I have noticed from people I've come across in suburban Philadelphia- younger people are FAR more liberal than their parents whereas in places like Northeast or South Philly, there is little difference.  In other words, of people around my age, those from the suburbs are fairly liberal whereas people from the NE are more conservative.  The 2000-2008 electoral trend is evident there.