PA 6 is now open.

[Keystone Phil]

http://blogs.mcall.com/penn_ave/2009/07/gerlach-to-run-for-governor-retire-from-congress.html


Should be fun, as always.

[Keystone Phil]

Thinking Pike v. Schroder?  D's SHOULD pick Dinniman.  Win this seat once and for all.

Not sure about the Dem side but, yeah, we're probably going with Curt.

[Keystone Phil]

I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall

HP





This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.

[Keystone Phil]

I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall

HP





This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.

Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

[Keystone Phil]

I still have my Lois Murphy sign hanging on my wall

HP





This isn't lean anything yet unless Dinniman runs.

Its tossup/tilt Democratic.  Just look at the Obama vote in the district, 58%-41%. 

And that was 2008. Believe it or not, guys, but never every election will be like that! Also, it was a Presidential election year with Barack Obama leading the ticket. Guess who won't be leading the ticket in 2010. Guess how low turnout will be.

Don't tell me it's "tilt Democratic" when you don't even know who the Dems are running.

It is an increasingly Dem district.  Even in bad years like 2002 and 2004, Democrats came within a whisker of picking up the seat before it had trended more Democratic. 

Look who led the ticket in 2002 and 2004 was a Presidential election year (higher turnout).

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach worked the district very hard and was well liked. 

No, Gerlach really wasn't well liked.

[Keystone Phil]

but at this point it is a Dem leaning district.

Tell me a few things about the potential Dem candidates, Smash.

[Keystone Phil]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This isn't about a comeback; we're still in charge here and there are dynamics that still favor my party in this seat.

[Keystone Phil]

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big. The Hill is reporting that "Democratic insiders" in PA insist that Pike is the frontrunner and endorsements like this only back that up.

I bet Dinniman stays away from this. Pike already has over $600,000 on hand and is pledging to spend $1 million of his own money in the race.

Speaking of Dinniman, the woman he beat for his State Senate seat - Chester county Commissioner Carol Aichele - stated she won't run in the 6th and will continue her run for Lt. Governor. Curt Schroder basically has the GOP nomination wrapped up.

[Keystone Phil]

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

[Keystone Phil]

Would it be accurate to say that Dinniman's senate district is significantly more Republican than the 6th as a whole?

Yes, that's why Dinniman is a threat. That being said, he did have the benefit of a weak Republican campaign against him in that Special (if I recall correctly).

Dinniman is apparently looking into a run but Pike received a huge endorsement today from Pat Murphy. That's big.

I just checked Pike's website. He has State Representative Josh Shapiro's endorsement, too. Shapiro is one of the really big deals in SE PA Democratic circles (especially in Montco). If he's already endorsing this guy, I think the Dems have their man.

I also think if the Dems gave a crap about this seat, they'd win. 

Gave a crap about this seat? Are you kidding me? This was a top target in 2002, 2004 and 2006! Sure, they didn't target it in 2008 and it was still close but if they had, Gerlach would have also stepped up his game.

Could he have lost? Sure. Is it a definite? No.

[Keystone Phil]

Phil, if you're talking about the special against Aichele, the GOP did make a strong challenge with a good candidate in Aichele. She just ran into the Dinniman buzzsaw.

I've heard differently about Aichele but that is not to take away from Dinniman's strength.