Was 2000 the ultimate realigning election?

[AGA]

I was looking at trends for the 2000 map and it seems that many of the trends happening today started in that election. The state trends look quite similar to the 2016 results. If you click on a particular state and look at the county trends, they also somewhat predict the 2016 results.

[darklordoftech]

2000 was the first election in which crime and welfare weren’t issues, the first election in which Fox News was a factor, the first election in which much of the GI Generation was dead, and the first election in 12 years without Perot.

[538Electoral]

Probably.

[Skye]

For the North-east it was 1996.

[Redban]

1992 was the realigning election. It was when a lot of the now-reliably blue states moved away from the GOP (eg- California)

[Agonized-Statism]

These are the only states that have never voted for the party they went to in '96 after that election. You tell me.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I like to think that in 2000 the perfect storm of new political changes caused by events in the second half of the 20th century, and of remainders of old political coalitions and voting patterns, came together and created kind of a perfect equilibrium, in the sense that:
the presidential PV was very close (0.5%)
the Electoral College was extremely close (271-267)
the Senate was exactly 50-50
the House PV was very close (0.5%)
the House was one of most closely balanced ever (221-213 + Virgil Goode)

So it was like the initial conditions for the system "21st century" were an America divided exactly 50-50. The system then evolved from that.
So I like to call 2000 the ultimate reset election. Also consider how little the presidential map has changed from 2000 on after the crazy swings of the previous decades.

[TDAS04]

For rural areas.

[Gracile]

No, I wouldn't go far enough to call it the "ultimate realigning" election - there are about a dozen elections you could make the case for in that regard. However, it was a notable election because it signified when much of the South shifted into the Republican column for the foreseeable future It also included several results that were shocking at the time - AR, TN, and WV in particular, as they were significantly to the left of the nation in 1996 but shifted to the right of the nation and never really looked back. You could also make the case that the broad (key word here) contours of our current electoral map were established in 2000.

[darklordoftech]

2000 could be seen as the completion of a geographical alignment.

[Sumner 1868]

For rural areas.

It was more of a warning sign Democrats deliberately ignored. Obama in 2008 did dramatically better than Gore in many historically Democratic rural areas with either timber or mining economies, but Hillary generally did even worse than Gore.

[darklordoftech]

The 2000 election left “Blue America” feeling that “Red America” celebrates stupidity and rejects facts and science and left “Red America” feeling that “Blue America” is condescending, eco-communist, and gun-grabbing.

[bobmart32]

The 2000 election left “Blue America” feeling that “Red America” celebrates stupidity and rejects facts and science and left “Red America” feeling that “Blue America” is condescending, eco-communist, and gun-grabbing.

and then facebook and twitter came along and proved it lol

[Sumner 1868]

I know the aftermath of 2000 was important in creating polarization, but the fact Orange County backed Bush by fifteen points while Gore carried the industrial Great Lakes makes it hard to me to view it as Year Zero of whatever we live in now. And then, as I noted above, large chunks of rural Americans who wouldn't vote for Gore or Hillary did vote for Obama in 2008.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

The 2000 election left “Blue America” feeling that “Red America” celebrates stupidity and rejects facts and science and left “Red America” feeling that “Blue America” is condescending, eco-communist, and gun-grabbing.

This. One Nation, Slightly Divisible
An article written by David Frum in December 2001 that expands on those feelings.

[Del Tachi]

I know the aftermath of 2000 was important in creating polarization, but the fact Orange County backed Bush by fifteen points while Gore carried the industrial Great Lakes makes it hard to me to view it as Year Zero of whatever we live in now. And then, as I noted above, large chunks of rural Americans who wouldn't vote for Gore or Hillary did vote for Obama in 2008.

I don't really think they're are a lot of rural Gore/Bush/Obama voters, especially if you look at places like Lawrence (AL), Pemiscot (MO), or Latimer (OK) .  White, rural areas have moved very consistently away from the Democrats since 1992, even. 

[Sumner 1868]

I know the aftermath of 2000 was important in creating polarization, but the fact Orange County backed Bush by fifteen points while Gore carried the industrial Great Lakes makes it hard to me to view it as Year Zero of whatever we live in now. And then, as I noted above, large chunks of rural Americans who wouldn't vote for Gore or Hillary did vote for Obama in 2008.

I don't really think they're are a lot of rural Gore/Bush/Obama voters, especially if you look at places like Lawrence (AL), Pemiscot (MO), or Latimer (OK) .  White, rural areas have moved very consistently away from the Democrats since 1992, even. 

I was mostly speaking of the rural West, although you'll find plenty in the Midwest and even the northeast. The South really sticks out from America in a lot of ways.

[Use Your Illusion]

1992 was the realigning election. It was when a lot of the now-reliably blue states moved away from the GOP (eg- California)

I argue in favor of 2000 far more heavily. The map has barely budged since then.

[darklordoftech]

1992 was the realigning election. It was when a lot of the now-reliably blue states moved away from the GOP (eg- California)

I argue in favor of 2000 far more heavily. The map has barely budged since then.

“Blue America” formed in 1985-1992 and “Red America” formed in 1997-2000.