Rasmussen Trust on Issues/ Congressional Ballot-Mid July 2009

[CARLHAYDEN]

Rasmussen has long been an outlier in the Presidential approval polls, and I have been skeptical of them since last year. Still, it's believable that things are heading down for Obama and the Dems. Anyone know what their 'likely voter' model does, and if they still do landline robocalls-only? Both of these could affect their results.

Update. Here is an illustration of why I am skeptical of Rasmussen:

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 37% of voters now favor her confirmation while 43% are opposed. (7/15) For the past 2 weeks, they have found more opposed than support.

link

Compare with other pollsters on substantially the same question:

Diageo/Hotline 50-28
Gallup 53-33
CBS 30-14
Quinnipiac 54-26
CNN 47-40
ABC/WashPost 62-25
http://www.pollingreport.com/court.htm

Sorry Beet, but the largest margin the Democrats have achieved over the Republicans in a Congressional election in a generation was 11 points (2008).  If you believe the polls you cited (with the exception of ORC), then you're really out of touch with reality.

While Rasmussen may be slightly optimistic about the Republican vote (I put the Democrats up by 2 points at this time), polls showing the Democrats ahead by 16 - 37 points are laughable.

Oh, and to correct a couple of your polls, the most recent results of FD (you identify them as Diageo/Hotline) from July 9-15 is 39 Democrat and 32 Republican, a 7 point Democrat advantage, not the 22 points you cited, while the Quinnipiac survey from June 23-29 was 42 Democrat and 34 Republican, an 8 point Democrat advantage, not the 28 points you cited.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Party ID as of August 1st.
Democrats 36.8%
Republican 33.3%
Independent 29.9%


Congressional Ballot
Date
Dem
GOP
 
08-02-09
38%
43%

Time for some more leftist moaning!

 

Rasmussen is a partisan hack whose polls suddenly get in line the week before the election.   The push polling he does and his hackery on Fox News should discredit him immediately. 

Pollster         Dates                  Number     Type                       Republican Democrat   Independent
                  
Rasmussen    July 01 to 31     15000     Adult                           33            37               30
YouGov          July 26 to 28       1000     Adult                           30            33               25
NPR               July 22 to 26         850     Likely Voters                32          38               29
FOX               July 21 to 22         900     Registered Voters       34            40               28
PPP               July 15 to 16         577     Registered Voters       35            42               23

[CARLHAYDEN]

September Polling

Party ID as of Sept 1st
Democrat 37.3%
Republican 32.6%
Independents 30.2%

Congressional Ballot polls
Date
Dem
GOP
 
09-06-08
37%
44%
 

Come on my lefties, the patient needs another dose of whinning and moaning.

Just thought I'd add a little more data.

Pollster                    Date          Democrat          Republican           Independent

Edison                Election Day       40                        33                         28

Rasmussen          November        42                        34                         25
                             October           40                        33                         26

Gallup                  November        39                        26                         35
                             October          34                        33                         32

AP                       November        40                        24                          35
                            October           35                       22                          44

[CARLHAYDEN]

Sorry but posting party ID numbers doesn't prove anything, as their substantive results are consistently to the right of a number of other polls. And I mean, sometimes way out of line. Look at the polls of Sotomayor's favorability. Every other pollster had her 20+ favorable while Rasmussen had her net unfavorable by a decisive margin, among their "likely voters". That is just one of many problems with Rasmussen.

Rasmussen polls like a whore, so you'll always be able to spam their polls, but they just aren't credible.

Beet,

Please reread my post.

I compared the numbers relative to the exit poll numbers, which are pretty universally accepted.

Oh, and BTW. Rasmussen's numbers are largely in agreement with those of two Democrat pollsters (see NPR run by Greenberg and PPP).

The other polls you cite are simply wrong.

So, stop hyperventilating and blovinating.