2010 senate prediction

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If the Republicans even take back a single house of Congress by 2012, its because God himself really is a Republican.....AND our country has been damaged beyond repair and is taking water.

I wouldn't say that, I would say Young people won't turn out as much as they did in 2008 perhaps being disillusioned by the bad economy and the ongoing war in Afghanistan and military involvment in Iran.  Under 35 year olds will have been disillusioned, not by any act by GOD, persay.

I would say Senate of course would be the most likely to fall with the most being Dems being from blue-collar republican areas like Casey, McCaskill, Webb and Tester.

I am personally not a fan of Dems like Casey and Specter who come from those areas.  If at all it means a primary would mean spending more money than it has to, then do it. We need people like Joe Sestak to stand up to DINO like Specter and Casey.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think CO is the most to go, Giannoulias will be find. Once IL find out he is a conservative republican, military buildup and tax cuts, but pragmatic on energy conservation, it will be a different story.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As for the IL senate, I think the 2016 olympics will play a part in who will be getting elected to that seat.  I think Chicago will get the olympics and Giannoulius will play an active part in supporting that olympics. Also, I don't believe PA and IL and NV will go republican unless Dems loses seat. As far as now, I think Dems will gain seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I got Dems +1 with New Hamsphire.

Missouri is leaning towards the dems but I think New Hamsphire is more likely to flip than Missouri is. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CO, CT, and DE are true tossups as far as PA, NV, IL I don't see GOP winning.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are optimistic because this is the third election cycle where there are major retirements.  TN was in 2006, 2008 was NM and VA, and now this election cycle. I think +2 Dem gains are more realistic, but I like the Dems chances.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP is likely to gain 1 to 3 seats in the best case scenario, I doubt that map is likely.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In order for the Congressional republicans to win states like PA, ND, and NV they will have to win the congressional ballot test, and so far they have come even with the Dems, not ahead.

I don't prefer Reid, as majority leader, I think he is more of negotiator rather than a leader, a boring one at that.  But Sardova, I don't believe will have the coattails to bring the Congressional republicans along to defeat Reid as of yet.

I think the Republicans have a much better chance of picking up NV-02 than anything else.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think its silly for the liberals on the board to assume that a conservative republican cannot win a senate race in tossup or any other territory in a bad year for democrats.

In 2006 -
Ohio got Sherrod Brown, the most raging and vile liberal in the senate
Montana got, Jon Tester, a liberal with a crew cut
New Hampshire got Jeanne Shaheen, a full blown liberal
The only somewhat moderate senator from that class was Claire McCaskill
   
In 2008 -
North Carolina got Kay Hagan, a liberal in a lean republican state
Colorado got one of the Udall brothers

Each of these states are tossup, lean republican or lean democrat in national elections - If they can elect socialists like Brown - they can elect conservatives.  The reason I bring this up is that people continue to say Toomey will not win in Pennsylvania.  If it can happen in other tossup/lean states for liberals, it can surely happen for conservatives in PA and NH (if Ayotte even is conservative - we dont know yet).

Now if you are looking at states like NY or CA - then yeah, a full blown conservative might lose in a rout, but in the swing states they can still win big. 

Except all of those raging liberals in the swing states tend to vote pro homeland security or has not opposed funding of the war Webb, Tester, and Hagen.

With the right security message, pro homeland security, not pro war, those raging liberals, can blunt the republican message, like Carnahan or Fisher.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't think Dems are so much have to worry about PA, AR, and IL, those are must win states for us, I think DE, CO, NV, and CT are states where a couple could defect.  I would be happy with 61 votes in the Senate.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I don't know about KY, because it has lost population and the Republicans can win the governorship back in 2011, I would just stick to MO, Oh, and NH and CO for now and then worry about NV and KY switching.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Both parties evenly split

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Sestak will beat Arlen Specter turncoat, pro war Dem in the primary and Giannoulias will beat Mark Kirk.  I think PA and IL is leaning our way.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think that the economy will not stay above 10 percent and gradually improves to 8 percent by election day the Dems will take moderate hits.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mizzouri was never a lean takeaway. Blunt will win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I say Dems will have 56 seats in Nov. , 3 this time around along with MA special.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55D-45R

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

55-45D''s