2010 senate prediction

[pragmatic liberal]

I'd say the most likely outcome is something between a +1 Republican gain and a +2 Democratic gain.

I think a third Democratic wave is unlikely, but not impossible. A Republican wave could theoretically give them a 4-seat net gain, but I think that's stretching things a bit.

This is obviously *VERY* speculative. Still, looking ahead, I'd imagine a likely outcome would be Democratic pickups in MO, NH, and either OH or KY (+3), with Republicans picking up Delaware (but only if Mike Castle runs) and one between NV, CT, and CO.

I think NV, CT, and CO all lean Dem at the moment. Well, Chris Dodd is behind, but his numbers have improved and my guess is that he'll get a scare, but will be the narrow victor. Reid's quite unpopular in Nevada, but Republicans can't seem to get their act together, and Reid has LOTS of money. If Dean Heller runs and is well-funded, they could pull an upset, but they're the underdogs. I do think the CO race is being overlooked a bit - if the Republicans nominate Ryan Frazier than at least at first glance he seems to be a potentially strong candidate, and Bennet is a total unknown.

As for other Dem-leaning seats? I suspect Vitter will narrowly hold on in Louisiana. North Carolina is a more likely pickup for the Dems, but I'd say it's only a second-tier opportunity right now and will depend somewhat on recruitment and the national mood.