2010 senate prediction

[Mr.Phips]

Schumer wins in NY but Pataki won agains Gillibrand

Composition of the senate:
Dems -51
GOP - 47
I- 2

A Republican is not winning statewide in New York(unless its against David Paterson) and Toomey is not winning in PA first of all.  Second, a Republican is not winning Illinois unless they are running against Roland Burris.  Same with Delaware unless Castle runs(he isnt raising much money). 

[Mr.Phips]

I think its silly for the liberals on the board to assume that a conservative republican cannot win a senate race in tossup or any other territory in a bad year for democrats.

In 2006 -
Ohio got Sherrod Brown, the most raging and vile liberal in the senate
Montana got, Jon Tester, a liberal with a crew cut
New Hampshire got Jeanne Shaheen, a full blown liberal
The only somewhat moderate senator from that class was Claire McCaskill
   
In 2008 -
North Carolina got Kay Hagan, a liberal in a lean republican state
Colorado got one of the Udall brothers

Each of these states are tossup, lean republican or lean democrat in national elections - If they can elect socialists like Brown - they can elect conservatives.  The reason I bring this up is that people continue to say Toomey will not win in Pennsylvania.  If it can happen in other tossup/lean states for liberals, it can surely happen for conservatives in PA and NH (if Ayotte even is conservative - we dont know yet).

Now if you are looking at states like NY or CA - then yeah, a full blown conservative might lose in a rout, but in the swing states they can still win big. 

1.  It will be very unlikely for 2010 to be as strong for the GOP as 06 was for the Dems.  Bush's approvals were averaging in th3 37% range with his disapprovals around 57%,  around a -20 net.  In comparison right now Obama's approvals are in the mid 50's with disapprovals in the upper 30's with around a +17 net

2  All of the states you mentioned with the exception of Montana are less Republican than PA is Democratic and in Montana's case Tester ran a very strong campaign and Burns was involved in numerous scandals.  You could make the argument that NC is about as GOP ad PA is Democratic, but its trending rather strongly to the Dems and Obama did win the state.  Also Dole is a brutal campaigner.

1-Your Obama approval ratings are way off.  Obama is at majority dissaprove in some polls (Rasmussen is at 53 disapproval) and only the crazy polls are keeping that average above 50%.  His disapprovals are in the 40s.

Rasmussen is a partisan Republican pollster.  Just look at the slanted questions he asks. 

[Mr.Phips]

Ill say GOP+2 for 43 seats.  They pick up AR, IN, ND, and DE, while Democrats pick up OH and NC.