2010 senate prediction

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Republicans win in CO, DE, IL and pull off a huge surprise in WI

Democrats pick up MO

How would Russell Feingold lose in 2010 considering his approval ratings?

And all these predictions assume that the Republican party doesn't die like the Whigs.

The assumption that the Republican Party will die like the Whigs is as bad as Elvis Republican thinking we can regain the Senate in 2010. The Whigs were a National Party evenly split between an Abolitionist northern wing and pro-slavery southern wing. The GOP divide is not so even, its more like a 70-30 split between conservatives and moderates and its becoming less and less national. A better comparison would be the Federalists, I don't know who keeps coming up with the Whig comparison, but they need there head examined.

The GOP will in the best case scenario have about 41-44 seats. Right now I see us losing MO; narrowly holding NC, KY, and LA; narrowly winning CT and narrowly losing in PA and ILL. I see OH and NH as toss-ups. I also see seats in NV, and CO as being potentially competative provided we find a candidate or the guy we got turns out to be a really good candidate. Lastly I see us easily holding open seats in FL and KS.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

30%'s indicate takeovers of any margin
40% indicates narrow holds
50% Strong but not Solid Holds
60% and up indicate Solid Holds

Dems narrowly hold CO, NV, PA, and ILL. GOP narrowly hold NH, OH, NC, KY, and LA. Dem pick up MO by 15 points and GOP picks up CT by less then 5%. GOP holds KBH's seat special but the margin isn't as solid same for the Dems in DE. Everything else is safe/solid.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Why do people think the Dems will have a POSITIVE Net Gain? 2010 will be a slight bounce back for the GOP. I predict +2 or 3 to the GOP.

CAuse so many of our guys decided to retire especially in swing states, making our job harder and theres easier.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

GOP seats:

Missouri will go democratic

Ohio will go democratic

Kentucky is a tossup, the GOP lucked out when Bunning decided to retire so they have a good chance of keeping the seat, but it will still be close especially if Mongiardo gets nominated

Florida would have been quite a race if Crist had decided not to run, but since he is entering the race he will win, no question about it

The GOP got lucky in New Hampshire because Kelly Ayotte is running, this one will be a close one, but i'm guessing since the dems have taken both house seats, the governors seat, a senate seat, the state legislature, and the state went to Obama by 10 points last year, the dems have a good shot of taking this one too

In Louisiana, David Vitter will more than likely keep his seat. Even though he is a total hypocrite and an admitted felon (busted for prostitution, while running on family values) Louisiana seems to like their elected officials that way. The state is trending more and more red every election cycle, so he is probably safe unless the dems can field a top tier centrist candidate (Charlie Melancon or Mitch Landrieu)

North Carolina could very well go democratic. Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state, plus he is not nearly as popular as Dole was when she ran. If the dems can field a good candidate, then they have a great chance of taking this seat, fortunatly for Burr they havent found one.

Texas has been mentioned because Rick Perry and Kay Baily Hutchinson will have a bloody primary for TX governor (even though i'm a dem, I will vote for Hutchinson in the primary because Perry is idiotic and embarrassing). Hutchinson will probably win the primary, setting up a special election. If that happens the only hope that dems have of winning the seat is if Houston mayor Bill White runs, but they will probably keep the seat anyway.

Dem seats:

Chris Dodd is in trouble, he is shown in polls to be heavily trailing Rob Simmons, and to make matters worse he has been diagnosed with cancer. If he runs, he might be able to keep his seat anyway because he can raise a lot of money and Connecticut is a very blue state. If he retires (which is what he should do), the Dems will keep the seat with a decent candidate. If not, the GOP has a great chance of getting this seat.

Delaware is a very blue state and Biden's son will be running for his father's old seat. Mike Castle could run for his congressional seat, he could run for the senate seat, or he could retire. He is 70 years old and he isn't raising much money, but if he runs it will be a close rase.

Roland Burris is retiring and is now a place filler for Obama's seat. Moderate republican Mark Kirk is running, but the dems will keep the seat because it's such a blue state.

Arlen Spector will run for re-election as a democrat and win the primary and the general

The GOP could win Bennet's seat in Colorado, but no one worth anything is running, so he will probably keep his seat

There have been rumors that the GOP is gunning for Harry Reid's seat, they won't get it

Dems:63
GOP:37

You left out when considering NC that Perdue has a 25% approval rating. Former Governor Easley has a grand Jury practially waiting for him in Raliegh. There have also been a wave of other scandals in this state from several Dems over the last 6 years. Obama is now in Negative territory in Approvals here as well. Burr is not as weak as many people claim he is.