2010 senate prediction

[tmthforu94]

Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.

Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.

[tmthforu94]

Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.

Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.

Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?

[tmthforu94]

Democrats gain, John Mccain loses his seat, the economy is getting better, the unemployment rate is going down.

Okay...
The economy is good enough that Democrats somehow manage to win in Kansas, Arizona, and Florida, but not good enough to win Deleware? Seriously...Terrible map.

Of course you think that "Bias Republican"

Why don't you say something useful for once instead of accusing me of being biased.
Your map doesn't make sense. How will a Democrat win in Kansas? How will a Democrat win in Florida when Crist is leading by like, 30 points? How will John McCain, who beat the most famous Democrat in Arizona by 9 points, be unseated?

OK then, here's another map, but this is if John mccain retires or dies.

Ehh, that's still be Democrat-friendly.
I think we'll be able to hold on to Kentucky. I don't think Bunning will make it out of the primaries. Then, I think we will win New Hampshire, Ohio, or Pennyslvania. At least one of those 3. I consider Connecticut "Lean GOP" for now. Judging by the new California poll, Republicans might be able to pick up California, too.

[tmthforu94]

Since polls have changed, I'll make another guess on the map...

Some thoughts:
Deleware- Depends on whether or not Castle runs. A close election, though
Nevada- Republicans will pull it together and nominate someone to defeat the unpopular Reid
North Dakota- Hoeven will end up running, and the results will be similar to SD in `04
Arkanas- Could potentially become competitive, if the Republicans find a good candidate
Illinois- Polls will show this close for a while, but it will come home to the Democrats in the end
New York- Pataki could beat Gillibrand, he really could. That will be a fun race to watch
Pennyslvania- There will be a bitter Democratic primary, but in the end, Specter will go on to barely defeat Toomey, in another close race.

Overall, Democrats really lucked out that they don't have as many seats to defend as the Republicans. If Senate elections were every 4 years instead of 2, and the `06 class was up for re-election, Republicans would probably come close to taking a majority in the Senate.

[tmthforu94]

Some thoughts...
Obama's approval ratings will hover between 45-50% in 2010, and will be sitting at 49% on election night.
Ohio - Democrats have some good candidates, and I just see the momentum shifting their way on this one. Things could change though.
Missouri - With Obama's approval ratings in a freefall here, Roy Blunt should be able to tie Carnahan to Obama, and pull out a victory.
Arkansas - This will be interesting. In the end, I think many ticked off Democrats will do a protest vote for the Green Party candidate, and the Republican candidate successfully ties Lincoln to Obama.
Pennyslvania - Toomey beats Specter. A great matchup, and will be a fun race to watch.
New Hampshire - Alloyte (sp?) is doing well so far. Hopefully she can get the money in there to retain the seat.
Indiana - I'll be honest, I would like to see some polling done here, especially Bayh's approvals. I have a feeling they aren't as high as most would think. Bayh has relied on the rural vote for years, and I think he will struggle with it in 2010. Republicans have a likeable and smart candidate in Stutzman, though I doubt he can pull it off in the end. Daniels could beat Bayh though, and Pence would make it interesting.

[tmthforu94]

Will include Massachusetts. Also, D.C. is NY Special election.

Republican pickups - North Dakota, Nevada, Colorado, Pennyslvania, Deleware, Arkansas, Massachusetts
Democrat pickups - ...

Closest States: Missouri, Illinois

[tmthforu94]