2010 senate prediction

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Seats.
Democrats will hold on to.
AR- Lincoln-D
CA- Boxer-D
CO- Bennet-D wins a full first term.
DE- if Castle does not run.- Beau Biden-D
HI- Inouye-D
IL- Giannoulias-D
IN-Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NV- Reid-D
NYA/B- Schumer and Gillibrand.
ND- Dorgan-D
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
WA- Murray-D
WI- Feingold-D
Democrats are likely to lose
CT- Dodd is trailing Simmons- if Dodd steps aside- Democratic retention.
DE- if Castle runs- Tossup.
PA- it depends on how the Democratic primary turnsout.
Republican seats.
Republicans will hold onto
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS- Moran/Tiahrt-R
KY- Grayson-R- by a narrow margin.
LA- Vitter-R
NC- Burr-R by a narrow margin.
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
TX- Republicans win in Special Election.
UT- Bennett-R

Republicans will lose
MO- Carnahan-D
NH- Hodes-D
OH- Fisher/Brunner-D

KY and NC will be the wave US Senate Elections.

NC will be the biggest shocker race.

[nkpatel1279]

With the exception of 1986,1990,1996 and 2006 and 2008- 1 or 2 Democratic Incumbents lost re-election.
1988- Jack Melcher(MT), 1992- Fowler(GA),and Sanford (NC), 1994- Wofford(PA),and Sasser(TN), 1998 - Mosely Braun (IL), 2000 - Robb (VA). 2002  Cleland -GA ,Carnahan-MO, and 2004- Daschle- SD.

Chris Dodd- CT will probally be the only Democratic Incumbent that loses his seat but it will be a narrow margin like the Daschle/Thune race.  All other vulnerable or so called vulnerable Democratic incumbents- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA, Bennett-CO, Reid-NV,Gillibrand-NY,Dorgan-ND if Hoevan runs, Specter/Sestak-PA, Murray-WA and Feingold-WI will get re-elected.

That leaves us DE and IL.
DE becomes a Tossup if Castle runs- other than that - Safe Democratic.
IL is going to be like the 1996 NJ US Senate Race between Bob Torricelli and Dick Zimmer- an open seat Senate Race to replace Bill Bradley. It was the most closely watched and expensive US Senate Race in history- Despite all of that Torrecelli won by a 10point margin.

On the GOP side. The open seats in MO,OH,and NH and possibly KY are like the 2008 US Senate Races in VA,NM,and CO- Strong Democratic Candidates vs Weak GOP Candidates.

FL is Republican because of Charlie Crist.  KS is a Republican State- Had Sebelius ran it would have been a Tossup at Best. 

Regarding Vulnerable GOP incumbents- NC- Burr- It is a Curse Seat- Obama's narrow victory, Hagan's upset victory over Dole- Burr is a first term who won in 2004 because of GWBush's coattails.

The biggest upset will be Vitter-LA losing.

[nkpatel1279]

DWTL, why would Dorgan lose now?  He survived 2004, and Hoeven is not going to run against him; who'll take him out?

Daschle lost in 2004 because of George W. Bush's coattails- Bush carried SD by a 20 point margin and Daschle was running against John Thune- who was a popular former At Large US House Member of South Dakota who just narrowly lost the race for US Senate in 2002 against Tim Johnson.
Dorgan won in 2004 with a sacrificial lamb GOP challenger. Regarding the 2010 race against Hoeven. Neither Hoeven nor Dorgan have any Presidential coattails like Thune had in 2004.

[nkpatel1279]

Safe Republican.
AL- Shelby-R
AK- Murkowski-R
AZ- McCain-R
FL-OPEN-(Martinez-R)- Crist-R
GA- Isakson-R
ID- Crapo-R
IA- Grassley-R
KS-OPEN-(Brownback-R)- Moran-R
OK- Coburn-R
SC- DeMint-R
SD- Thune-R
UT- Bennett-R
Safe Democratic.
AR- Lincoln-D- will end up facing weak GOP opposition.
CA- Boxer-D ends up winning by landslide margin- despite opposition from Carly Fiorina.
DE- (OPEN-Kaufman-D)-Biden-D- Mike Castle is not going to run.
HI- Inouye-D
IN- Bayh-D
MD- Mikulski-D
NY- Schumer-D
NY- Gillibrand-D- Gillibrand will get a free pass plus- Schumer's coattails will help Gillibrand win.
ND- Dorgan-D- Hoeven is less likely to run.
OR- Wyden-D
VT- Leahy-D
Vulnerable/Republican Favored Seats.
KY-(OPEN-Bunning-R)- KY will be close/Tossup- through out the campaign. Grayson will end up winning.
LA-(Vitter-R)-
NC-(Burr-R)- A potential upset for Democrats.
Vulnerable/Democratic Favored Seats.
CO-(Bennett-D)- Appointee with 0 electoral experience. GOP opposition is weak.
IL-(OPEN-Burris-D)- Both sides have top tier candidates- Giannoulias(D)vs Kirk(R). Dems will win in the end by a wide margin.
NV-(Reid-D)- A potential upset for Republicans.
DEM Pickup seats
MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Carnahan-D
NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)-Hodes-D
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Fisher-D
Too Close to Call.
CT-(Dodd-D)
PA-(Specter-D)

[nkpatel1279]

Republican Favored.
AL
AK
AZ
FL
GA
ID
IA
KS
OK
SC
SD
UT
Leans Republican-
LA
NC
Tossup
AR
CO
CT
DE-if Castle runs.
KY
NV
NH
OH
PA
Leans DEM
IL
MO
NY-B
Democratic Favored
CA
DE-if Castle does not run.
HI
IN
MD
NY
ND
OR
VT
WA
WI


Dems will pick up MO and hold on to IL,NY-B,and DE-assuming Castle does not run.
AR,CO,CT,KY,NV,NH,OH,and PA will depend on how things turn out nationally.
IF 2010 is a bad year for DEMS- expect DEMs to lose couple of those seats.

AR- anti Obama state- hurt Lincoln ie Anti Bush in 2006 hurting Chaffee.
CO- Tough primary challenge against Bennett-
CT- Dodd's scandal- national Republicans are going target him.
KY- Tossup GOP held seat.
NV- National Republicans are going to target Reid to embarrass DEMS.
NH- Hodes is a boring candidate- Ayotte- is doing better than expected. DEMS need to define Ayotte- portray her as a Conservative nutjob.
OH- Divisive Dem Primary may help Portman-R- Need to remind OH voters how close Portman was with Bush-43 economic policies.
PA- Divisive DEM Primary. Need to remind PA voters how conservative Toomey is.

[nkpatel1279]

Republican Favored.
AL
AK
AZ
FL
GA
ID
IA
KS
OK
SC
SD
UT
Leans Republican-
LA
NC
Tossup
AR
CO
CT
DE-if Castle runs.
KY
NV
NH
OH
PA
Leans DEM
IL
MO
NY-B
Democratic Favored
CA
DE-if Castle does not run.
HI
IN
MD
NY
ND
OR
VT
WA
WI


Dems will pick up MO and hold on to IL,NY-B,and DE-assuming Castle does not run.
AR,CO,CT,KY,NV,NH,OH,and PA will depend on how things turn out nationally.
IF 2010 is a bad year for DEMS- expect DEMs to lose couple of those seats.

AR- anti Obama state- hurt Lincoln ie Anti Bush in 2006 hurting Chaffee.
CO- Tough primary challenge against Bennett-
CT- Dodd's scandal- national Republicans are going target him.
KY- Tossup GOP held seat.
NV- National Republicans are going to target Reid to embarrass DEMS.
NH- Hodes is a boring candidate- Ayotte- is doing better than expected. DEMS need to define Ayotte- portray her as a Conservative nutjob.
OH- Divisive Dem Primary may help Portman-R- Need to remind OH voters how close Portman was with Bush-43 economic policies.
PA- Divisive DEM Primary. Need to remind PA voters how conservative Toomey is.

I would put CO at lean Dem.  Bennet might be unknown and he might not even be the nominee after the Primary, but the shape of the GOP in the state is abysmal, I would say that is a lean.  Similar reason why I think Gillibrand is safe, the state GOP is a complete and utter joke.

I don't see Arkansas as being a toss up either.  While I agree that Bush hurt Chafee in RI and you could see Obama hurt Lincoln as well, few major differences.  First i think it will be very unlikely that Obama's numbers in Arkansas in 2010 will be as low as Bush's were in RI in 06 (25% approve, 74% disapprove).  Also at the state level Arkansas is still a very Democratic state.  On the state level Rhode Island is perhaps even more Democratic than it is on the national level (yes I know they have a GOP Gov, one of which who would have been toast if Chafee lost the Primary, but the State House and Senate are Democratic Supermajorites. 

In PA,  I just think the numbers in the Philly metro area will be too much for Toomey to overcome no matter if its Specter or Sestak

Lets just say that it will be impossible for any Democratic seat to flip Republican in 2010.

Since getting elected in 1992- Boxer(CA),Murray(WA) and Fiengold(WI) have been target by the Republicans in their 1998 and 2004 re-election cycle. yet the Democratic incumbents win handily over their GOP challengers. This election cycle Republicans have third tier candidates making Boxer(CA),Murray(WA),and Feingold(WI) safe in their re-election bids.

Blanche Lincoln (AR) is the only red state Southern US Senator facing re-election in 2010. Lincoln may not be likeable as Dale Bumpers or the Pryors(David or Mark) but she is hell alot better that her potential GOP opponents- who are a bunch of nutjobs.

Other US Senators facing re-election in 2010.
Chris Dodd(CT) is facing a tough re-election campaign the first time in his 30 year US Senate Career. The DSCC,DNC,Obama,Biden,Lieberman,the Clintons, will do everything to protect Dodd. Keeping Dodd in the US Senate will be the number 1 priority.

Dan Inouye(HI) is safe. probally running unopposed.
Evan Bayh(IN) is safe.
Barbara Mikulski (MD) is safe.
Harry Reid(NV) will face a tough race this election cycle. The DSCC, DNC, Obama,Biden,Clintons, will do everything to protect Reid.
Chuck Schumer(NY) is safe. running unopposed.
Byron Dorgan (ND) is safe. very popular in ND.
Ron Wyden (OR) is safe. running unopposed.
Patrick Leahy (VT) is safe. running unopposed.

Other Democratic US Senate seats.
Mike Bennett(CO) is lucky that a top tier GOP candidate like Bill Owens, Scott McInnis, is not challenging him otherwise- he would be in a similar situation as Jean Carnahan-MO- another appointed US Senator who lost in their bid for re-election.

Beau Biden(DE) is safe unless Mike Castle runs. in that case. VP Biden will do everything to make sure his former constituents in DE elect his son Beau.

Alexi Giannoulias (IL) is favored in General Election. President Obama will do everything to help his friend his his old US Senate Seat.

Kirsten Gillibrand(NY) is a shoe in due to weak GOP opposition and Schumer(NY's) coattails.

The Democrats will hold on to PA due to strong support in the Philadelphia Burbs region.

Democrats will pick up MO,NH,and OH. The Democrats have top tier candidates and GOP candidates in MO,and OH are unpopular.

KY open is going to be a tossup.
NC will be a possible upset for us.
LA will be competitive.

[nkpatel1279]

2010 US Senate Prediction.
AL-Shelby-R 70-30
AK-Murkowski-R 60-40
AZ-McCain-R 55-45
AR-Lincoln-D 55-45
CA-Boxer-D 60-40
CO-Bennett-D 52-47
CT- Dodd-D 50-50 race.
DE(Special)-Biden-D 50-50 against Castle-R 60-40 against generic R.
FL- Crist-R- 55-45
GA- Isakson-R 60-40
HI- Inouye-D 70-30
ID- Crapo-R 70-30
IL- Giannoulias-D 55-45
IN- Bayh-D 65-35
IA- Grassley-R 60-40
KS- Moran-R 60-40
KY- Grayson-R 52-47
LA- Vitter-R 55-45
MD- Mikulski-D 65-35
MA-Special (Coakley-D) 60-40
MO-Carnahan-D 55-45
NV- Reid-D 52-47
NH- Hodes-D 52-47
NY- Schumer-D 70-30
NY(Special)- Gillibrand-D 60-40
NC- Burr-R 52-47
ND- Dorgan-D 65-35
OH- Fisher-D 52-47
OK- Coburn-R 60-40
OR- Wyden-D 65-35
PA- Specter-D 55-45
SC- DeMint-R 60-40
SD- Thune-R 60-40
UT- Bennett-R 70-30
VT- Leahy-D 70-30
WA- Murray-D 60-40
WI- Feingold-D 60-40

[nkpatel1279]

Democratic Pickup
MO,OH
Democratic Retention
CA,HI,IL,IN,MD,NY,NY,ND,OR,PA,VT,WA,and WI.
Tossup.
CT,DE,NV,and NH.
Republican Pickup
AR,CO
Republican Retention.
AL,AK,AZ,FL,GA,ID,KS,KY,LA,NC,OK,SC,SD,and UT

[nkpatel1279]

CO and DE are the only two vulnerable Democratic held US Senate seats likely to fall to the Republicans.
CO is a swing state- Bennett-D is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition and Republicans have a top tier candidate Lt Governor Jane Norton. During neutral years-Appointed backbench US Senators like Bennet-CO usually go down.
DE-is a unique case. DE is a blue state- the Democratic nominee- AG Beau Biden is the son of the sitting VP and popular former 6 term US Senator. However the Republican Candidate is an 11 time Popular Statewide Elected Official. Mike Castle served 1 term as Lt Governor,2 terms as Governor and 9 terms as At Large US House Member since 1980. If the race is just between Castle vs Biden Jr. Castle wins but if the race is between Castle vs Joe and Beau Biden- the race becomes a tossup and Biden Jr can give Castle the race of his life.
Dems will hold onto AR(Lincoln-D)-due to Republicans nominating a wingnut. CT(Dodd-D)due to Dodd's seniority status. IL(OPEN-Burris-D)-due to President Obama's influence and the Daley Machine. NV(Reid-D) due to Reid's seniority status and GOP nominee being unacceptable and PA(Specter-D) due to Liberal fears of Toomey being to conservative.
On the Republican side. Republicans are likely to lose MO and OH due to weak unpopular Republican candidates- Roy Blunt-MO and Rob Portman-OH who have ties to Bush43 and Tom Delay. The open NH and KY seat are pure tossups. Republican incumbents LA(Vitter) and NC(Burr) can face surprise defeats.

[nkpatel1279]

Democrats will keep AR(Lincoln-D) due to the weakness of the state Republican party in Arkansas. Lincoln-AR may be a thorn on our side but she is a hell lot better than whoever the Republicans nominate. IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris-D)- blue state-Obama's former seat due to demographic favoring Democrats and Obama's influence will help Giannoulias-D.. NV(Reid-D)-due to Reid's clout. Electing Reid is better for the state than a backbench freshman Republican. PA(Specter-R) due to Toomey's rightwing extremism. CT(Dodd-D) and DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman-D) will be too close to call but Democrats will hold onto those seats due to Dodd's seniority clout and VP Joe Biden's influence and Beau Biden's potential campaign skills. The only seat Democrats will lose in Colorado- Bennett is an appointed US Senator with low name recognition- he is facing a tough primary campaign against Andrew Romanoff and general election campaign against ex Lt Governor Jane Norton. On the Republican side- Republicans will lose MO and OH due to unpopularity of the GOP candidates. keep NH- due to Ayotte's percieve moderate image, and KY- due to demographics. as well as FL,KS,LA,and NC.