2010 senate prediction

[MSG]

Dunno how to post maps so i will put it in this form:

Dems - MO

Reps - tbd

preface - i will never again definitively state anything in regards to gaming so to speak after i predicted that the 2008 Indians would be in the WS and that the 2009 cavs would be in the finals.  Both teams were the best i had ever seen in my life but there are many things that can derail a supposed sure thing.

California -  pipe dream Safe DEM hold no explanation needed

Colorado - this is the hardest race to predict.  Bennett seems to be a fundraising machine and the state is turning blue(red for this site.) If Ryan Frazier is the nominee and he is a capable campaigner this will be an interesting race.  Frazier = toss-up if not DEM hold

Connecticut - i think the best thing to happen to dodd reelection campaign was his diagnosis of prostate cancer.  In this country surviving cancer is like saving a baby from a fire. If yo do your golden.  Also, i think his numbers bottomed out and will only go up.  This along with the nature of CT will allow him to squeak by.  DEM Hold

Delware - this is a pipe dream now in my opinion.  Castle clearly the only rep who stands a chance has not raised any money what so ever.  With out a decent cash flow he would have a tough time to begin with.  Let alone this leads me to believe that he is not running.  If he is not running safe Dem.  DEM hold

Florida - Dem pipe dream unless Christ is found in bed with his a wife and a dude.  REP Hold

Illinois -  Kirk is a formidable challenger but this is the one race i seem to know about more than any other.  From what i have gather is that kirk is a great congressman for his constituent services and his family connection.  His family is very well respected in the area that encompasses the 10th district and his grandmother seems to have major political sway.  I don't know how this translates.  Also, i believe that obama will be the key factor here. If Alexi is down in the polls or close he will come in and save him.  Late ad cut for Alexi will put him over the top.  Plus kirk seems to be the kind of person who doesn't know how to avoid scandal. the lead story tonight on wgn was about kirks event tweets landing him in hot water.  Slight DEM hold

Kentucky-  With bunnings' retirement this is went from a pick up to a sure rep hold.  REP Hold

Louisiana - Vitter should be vulnerable but the diaper fetish man will be safe.  Reps would rather have a person like them than actually vote a scandalous figure out.  Its similar to dodd in CT.  Both should be gone but partisanship will allow them to survive.  REP hold

Missouri - This race seems to be a race between a popular member of a popular family verse the only likable member of an unlikable family.  The state may tilt rep but dynamics of the race lean Dem.  Most of my knowledge about this race comes from this site and other political sites but their is one consistant thing that any one with out bias has given Robin the edge.  So i defer to that.  DEM takeover

Nevada - Most powerful senator verse third tier oppt. equals no chance. Unless a candidate like las Vegas mayor switches parties to run against Reid there is no chance.  For those who use daschle as an example as why Reid could be taken down remember two things.  Daschle was in a must redder(bluer for this site) state and ran against a thune who had barely lost the previous cycle and had great name rec. and fundraising abilities. No one had presented these abilities thus far.  DEM hold.

New Hamp. - This is the truest of toss up right now.  Hodes has the advantage because of the trend of the state and the fact that he will be running with lynch who will give him coattails.  Also it seems lynch had a grudge against ayotte and will be campaign against her.  However we don't how well of campaigner she will be.  It seems to me hodes is a good campaigner so ayotte will have to be that much better.  But until the race shapes up its still a toss up.  TOSS-UP

North Carolina - this should have been Roy coopers to win.  When he declined it made me think that he know something we don't.  That lead me to believe that either he doesn't want run for federal office or he saw that this cycle would be anti-dem.  Either way unless cunningham gets into this race i don't see the Dem's winning.  REP hold

Pennsylvania - This race is the one were i have no idea about.  The Dem nature of the state and toomey radical conservatism leads me to believe that specter will survive.  However, a bloody primary and a backlash against obama could lead to unknown results.  Still specter is the favorite and toomey is still a out work congressman who is best known for his support of losing candidates.  DEM hold

Ohio -  I would like to believe that portman would be hung by his disastrous heading of the bush finicials.  However, Americans are now for two things short mememory and over reactions.  That being said in a neutral climate Ohio is lean rep so portman aided by a bloody primary(get out of the race brunner and save us the SOS seat) will win in a close race. REP hold.

Any race not listed here is a pipe dream for the opposition or would take a macca moment.  If one of these two things occur then these rating will change but until then.  D+1