2010 senate prediction

[biggzcorey]

GOP seats:

Missouri will go democratic

Ohio will go democratic

Kentucky is a tossup, the GOP lucked out when Bunning decided to retire so they have a good chance of keeping the seat, but it will still be close especially if Mongiardo gets nominated

Florida would have been quite a race if Crist had decided not to run, but since he is entering the race he will win, no question about it

The GOP got lucky in New Hampshire because Kelly Ayotte is running, this one will be a close one, but i'm guessing since the dems have taken both house seats, the governors seat, a senate seat, the state legislature, and the state went to Obama by 10 points last year, the dems have a good shot of taking this one too

In Louisiana, David Vitter will more than likely keep his seat. Even though he is a total hypocrite and an admitted felon (busted for prostitution, while running on family values) Louisiana seems to like their elected officials that way. The state is trending more and more red every election cycle, so he is probably safe unless the dems can field a top tier centrist candidate (Charlie Melancon or Mitch Landrieu)

North Carolina could very well go democratic. Richard Burr is a one-term senator in the famous cursed seat. It has flipped in each of the past five elections. To make it worse, in 2008 he watched in angst as his Republican colleague Elizabeth Dole went down to defeat at the hands of state senator Kay Hagan at the same time as Beverly Perdue was elected governor and Barack Obama won the state, plus he is not nearly as popular as Dole was when she ran. If the dems can field a good candidate, then they have a great chance of taking this seat, fortunatly for Burr they havent found one.

Texas has been mentioned because Rick Perry and Kay Baily Hutchinson will have a bloody primary for TX governor (even though i'm a dem, I will vote for Hutchinson in the primary because Perry is idiotic and embarrassing). Hutchinson will probably win the primary, setting up a special election. If that happens the only hope that dems have of winning the seat is if Houston mayor Bill White runs, but they will probably keep the seat anyway.

Dem seats:

Chris Dodd is in trouble, he is shown in polls to be heavily trailing Rob Simmons, and to make matters worse he has been diagnosed with cancer. If he runs, he might be able to keep his seat anyway because he can raise a lot of money and Connecticut is a very blue state. If he retires (which is what he should do), the Dems will keep the seat with a decent candidate. If not, the GOP has a great chance of getting this seat.

Delaware is a very blue state and Biden's son will be running for his father's old seat. Mike Castle could run for his congressional seat, he could run for the senate seat, or he could retire. He is 70 years old and he isn't raising much money, but if he runs it will be a close rase.

Roland Burris is retiring and is now a place filler for Obama's seat. Moderate republican Mark Kirk is running, but the dems will keep the seat because it's such a blue state.

Arlen Spector will run for re-election as a democrat and win the primary and the general

The GOP could win Bennet's seat in Colorado, but no one worth anything is running, so he will probably keep his seat

There have been rumors that the GOP is gunning for Harry Reid's seat, they won't get it

Dems:63
GOP:37

[biggzcorey]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

[biggzcorey]

Democrats 63

Republicans 37

Very close in New Hampshire, Missouri, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio

I don't think a major party has ever not made gains in 3 straight cycles

Dems did it in both houses in 1930,1932,1934,1936, and on a smaller scale in 1986,1988, and 1990

[biggzcorey]

I wonder how likely it is that both parties stay where they are in 2010 (in other words, any gains made by the one party will be canceled out by the gains of the other party).

Seems like a reasonable possibility.

Indeed--I wondered about that possibility because on the one side we have people who think that the Democrats will make gains, and on the other side we have people who predict that the Republicans will make gains. With that in mind, surely there is a chance that each party will cancel out the gains made by the other party, and thus the senate stays in favor of the Democrats 60-40, special elections/appointments aside.

I predict that the dems will make senate gains, but the GOP will make house gains

[biggzcorey]

Ryan Frazier is worth nothing? Lolz

not really, a former congressman and former speaker of the Colorado house would beat an Aurora city councilman in a primary, plus he's barely 30, way too young for a senate seat. Not to mention running a black republican would help more in a state that actually had black people in it.

What an ass. Colorado has both state houses led by African-Americans, and voted Obama, even hosting the convention. They are not afraid of electing black Americans to positions of power.

It has nothing to do with me being an ass, the GOP runs black republicans because they feel that they will have more appeal than just another old white guy (Ever wonder why Mike Steele is head of the RNC, quite a step up from a former Lt Gov wouldn't you say). I never said anything about Colorado disliking the notion of having minorities as elected officials (they also had a Hispanic senator). I'm simply stating that the appeal to make more blacks vote republican in a republicn primary and general election would work better in a state like Maryland (29 % black), Michigan (14%), New York (17%), Florida (16%), or Georgia (30%), as opposed to Colorado which is 4% black

http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/index.html